Not a question of 'IF' but 'WHEN'

泡沫、泡沫......總要破

2007年05月22日10:33大 | 中 | 小

上週﹐電視節目主持人問我﹐你認為中國A股市場的泡沫何時破滅﹐我一面試圖圍繞這個問題的荒謬性發表看法﹐一面提醒自己﹕大家已經不討論“是否”有泡沫﹐還是直接考慮“何時”的問題了。

政 府為股市開出的各種退燒藥眼下都沒能奏效﹔而政府各級官員和市場專家對股市風險一再發出的警告只是投資者的耳旁風﹐而且煽得股市之火反而燒得更旺了﹐衡量 中國股市的CSI300指數在不到5個月的時間裡瘋狂上漲了85%。如今﹐每天的新開戶數超過25萬﹐而這僅僅才是一個開始。從本質上說﹐多數新股民都好 似一群賭徒﹐他們把股市看作一個充滿遊戲與運氣的棒球聯盟。

相關報導

• 新股民為中國股市火上澆油
• 中國在中美經濟對話前回應外界批評
• 中國努力防止股市出現泡沫和崩盤
• " href="http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20070521/bch085421.asp" target="_blank">中國將建立期貨投資者保障基金
• 中國發佈股指期貨交易細則的徵求意見稿

在這樣一個狂飆的市場面前﹐投資者卻沒有合法的作空渠道。政府選取了一批大型機構嘗試人們期許已久的期貨交易﹐但這些初步嘗試的效果好壞參半﹐我聽說這些券商在期貨市場上很受打擊﹐因為股價的走勢缺少任何理性基礎的支撐。

其他有助於加大市場管控力度的“改革”被延期推遲﹐因為有關部門官員不願在今年這個政治上高度敏感的年頭冒險進行大規模的改革措施。

說句可能不大中聽的話﹐中國股市很有可能過不了多久就會出現一次大幅回調。到那時﹐由於沒有任何措施來對沖下行風險﹐投資者唯一能做的就是在一片恐慌中拔腿快逃。

這一幕成為事實只是時間早晚的問題。

我以前曾撰文指出﹐中國股市與海外股市基本上是割裂的﹐但中國股市二月份急劇下挫所引發的一系列連鎖反應卻讓投資者認識到﹐市場對中國股市大幅下跌所產生的心理反應足以波及亞洲其他市場﹐進而給全球市場帶來衝擊。

中 國股市一旦遭遇“高台跳水”﹐就有可能殃及北美和歐洲股市──美國投資者似乎對這一點尚未充分認識﹐甚至根本就忽略了。我希望對沖基金和其他同意這一觀點 的投資者在建倉時就已為中國股市可能出現崩盤做好了應對準備﹐尤其是對與消費者息息相關的類股﹐譬如寶潔公司(Procter & Gamble Co.)和百勝餐飲(YUM Brands)﹐因為國內股市下滑將令消費者支出突然減少﹐從而可能影響到這類公司的表現。

中國上週宣佈了多項給經濟降溫的措施﹐同時還提高了人民幣兌美元匯率的浮動範圍﹐這也被外界看作是為中美本週舉行的戰略經濟對話打下鋪墊。但就我掌握的情況來看﹐中國的購物中心、道路、船舶等仍在以進步瘋狂的步伐增加著。

你認為中國股市會回歸到現實中來嗎﹖


Sage Brennan

（本文譯自MarketWatch）

Small Fish Vs Big Shark

Noticed the market volume is shrinking, the surge in index is not sustainable, up in the morning section, down in the afternoon.

In view of the uncertainties and fear of China Crash, it's good being a Small Fish, at least the small fish is flexible enough to just disposed off some of the shares easily ( can be 80-90%), walk away & sidelined for a period, enjoying the show from Shanghai.

It's not so lucky for Big Sharks, because they can't just sell and walk away. Any selling from them will cause the price drop heavily due to thin market volume. They have to take weeks to reduce their equity holding and praying Shanghai don't crash tomorrow.

An intelligent Small Fish is not necessary weak than Big Sharks if not better!

Latest Purchase at 17 May 2007

I have bought 10,000 Muiind at 0.33 from Child's education fund.
Increase the Muiind from 12,000 to 22,000 shares.

Noted their proposed purchase of Metrojaya has got all the authorities approval, the deal should be completed soon which will see Muiind earning to improved in near future.

Latest Sales on 16 May 2007

In view of the uncertainties in the immediate term, I have disposed 2,000 Lionind at 1.98 and 3,000 Ornasteel at 1.46.

This has increase my cash to 34% and waiting for the right time to re-enter the market at lower price.

I Decided to CLOSE Maybank Account

I totally disagree with what Maybank has done on the '50% bumi equity requirement' measure, therefore I have decided to close Maybank account.

The issue is not whether it's bumi or non-bumi, but to make Malaysia a better country we must make ALL decision on ' MERIT' not race, not religion.

For those not aware of this issue, below are the news:-

The extracted from The Star dated 9/5/2007.

MCA: Maybank move discriminatory

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank has come under fire from MCA vice-president Datuk Seri Chua Soi Lek for its requirement to law firms that it must have at least three bumiputra partners, one of whom must have a 50% stake, before these firms can do any business with the bank.

Describing the move as discriminatory, he said many Malaysians had expressed their disappointment with the bank for its decision.

“On one hand, we are talking about racial integration but on the other hand, we are adopting such positions which are racial in nature,” he said.

Dr Chua, who is the Health Minister, questioned the existence of such a ruling, adding how Malaysia could compete globally if a government-linked company like Maybank still adopted such a position.

Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Ng Yen Yen also questioned the bank’s move as firms that provided the best professional services should be the criteria for selection.

“We should learn to be more competitive because we are liberalising our financial services. What Maybank is doing is not in sync with what the Government is doing,” the Wanita MCA chief said.

Dr Ng said the move taken by Maybank may be an internal decision but she said the Wanita MCA regretted the action as it had no legal basis and was certainly not in line with the spirit of the Federal Constitution. Another unnamed bank was also reportedly to have made a similar decision.

She said Maybank was dealing with lawyers who were professionals and ethnic composition should not be an issue, adding that law firms should be judged on their abilities.

MCA Youth chief Datuk Liow Tiong Lai urged Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to intervene as the requirement was discriminatory, adding that the bank should withdraw the ruling immediately.

He hoped Abdullah, who is the Finance Minister, would step in to resolve the issue, adding that MCA Youth was disappointed with the decision as it would tarnish the image of Malaysian companies.

The Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry also criticised the move, saying it prevented businesses from operating freely; while Bar Council chairman Ambiga Sreenevasan said all lawyers should be judged on their merit and that the council would be writing to Bank Negara on the matter.

Megan Media, My Experience

I have bought Megan last month (Apr) after my friend told me that it's 'Insider' tips. I did some check and find out it has high EPS and low PE. It appears cheap and I bought 20 lots the next day at 0.68.

Few days later I discovered that Megan is in huge debts position due to heavy investment in Plant and Machinery and the nature of it's biz need reinvestment every few years due to changes in technology. I feel uneasy over my investment in Megan because of the high gearing and it's biz model that always required huge reinvestment.

I decided to dispose it after 2 weeks of holding at 0.65 ( at a loss of 0.03 per share) because I recall the principle for 'Intelligent Investor' : Don't even hold a stock for ten minutes unless you are willing to own it for 10 years.

Look at Megan price today of 0.435 (she has defaulted RM47 mil bank loan & owing RM888 mil debts), This incident has reinforce my believe in 'Value Investing'

If you are interested in 'Value Investing' & wanted to be an 'Intelligent Investor', the following are some of the rules:-

1) When you invest in a stock, you are buy a biz, not a stock. Understand the biz.
2) Demand a Margin of Safety.
3) The Rule#1 is don't lose money.
4) Take advantage on the moody Mr. Market.

China Market break 4000 point

中國股市收盤突破4000點大關

2007年05月09日19:34大 | 中 | 小

中國股市週三收盤走高﹐基準上證綜合指數首次站上4000點大關﹔原因是藍籌股獲得強勁追捧﹐抵消了獲利回吐壓力。

上證綜合指數漲1.6%﹐收於歷史最高點位4013.09點﹔深證綜合指數漲0.3%﹐至1111.29點﹐同為歷史最高收盤點位。

分析師們稱﹐目前說中國股市已見頂為時尚早﹐不過﹐隨著獲利回吐壓力的加大﹐短期內股市波動或將加劇。他們稱﹐基準上證綜合指數去年上漲了一倍多﹐今年以來又累計上揚了50%。

渣 打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)經濟學家王志浩(Stephen Green)稱﹐除非中國政府採取措施抑制股指進一步攀升﹐否則考慮到目前市場流動性充裕、上行動能強勁以及收益消息不斷湧現﹐上證綜合指數在未來一、兩 個月內將上探5,000點。

分析師們稱﹐人民幣進一步升值的前景以及國內經濟增長強勁將會支撐股市長線走勢。

受股市火爆局面及高投資回報可能性的推動﹐散戶投資者在過去幾個月蜂擁入市。據《上海證券報》週三報導﹐4月份A股新增開戶數479萬﹐高於2006年全年的308萬。不過﹐這些缺乏股票投資知識的新股民很容易受到股市振盪的衝擊。

某合資基金管理公司駐上海的一位投資主管稱﹐對於那些通過變賣房產或用退休金來炒股的投資者而言﹐股市的任何波動都將令引發他們的撤資離場。

部分監管機構官員和學者也表達了對資產價格上升可能過快的擔憂。

當被記者問及是否擔心股市形成泡沫時﹐中國央行行長周小川上週末表示﹐他的確有此擔憂﹐出於對匯率穩定的考慮﹐央行要監控消費者價格指數(CPI)、生產者價格指數(CPI)和資產價格。

《上海證券報》週三還援引中國人民大學(Renmin University)金融與證券研究所(Finance and Securities Research Institute)所長吳曉求的話稱﹐中國股市存在結構性泡沫﹐某些資產的價格存在高估。

週三的市場交投狀況體現了這種擔心﹐投資者避開那些超買的股票﹐將投資轉向藍籌股。華泰證券(Huatai Securities)分析師陳慧琴稱﹐這是投資者越發意識到獲利回吐風險的跡象。

大型藍籌股中國工商銀行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)漲5.5%﹐至人民幣5.78元﹔中國銀行(Bank of China)漲7.8%﹐至人民幣6.10元。

寶鋼股份(Baoshan Iron & Steel)漲4.7%﹐至人民幣11.98元﹔長江電力(China Yangtze Power)漲2.9%﹐至人民幣15.04元。

分 析師們稱﹐投資者出於套利目的可能在中國首只股指期貨推出前繼續買入大型股。中國政府一再表示希望大力發展金融市場﹐引進股指期貨可能是其中方式之一。中 國證券監督管理委員會(China Securities Regulatory Commission)副主席范福春3月份曾對記者表示﹐希望在今年上半年推出股指期貨。

不過﹐分析師們稱﹐股指期貨的引入或將在短期內加劇股市波動﹐原因是大型股可能會在股指期貨推出後遭遇投資者的獲利回吐。

亞太其他股市方面﹐東京股市收盤走高﹐航運及金融類股上漲﹔不過﹐在豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)盤後公佈財政年度業績前﹐許多投資者都不敢輕舉妄動。日經指數收盤漲0.5%﹐至17748.12點。該指數週二下挫12.99點。

香 港股市收盤上揚﹐受亞洲其他股市的強勁表現以及上海證交所再創收盤新高共同提振。交易員預計﹐近期內恆生指數將波動於20,500至20,800點﹐因市 場均對中國大陸可能進一步推出緊縮政策而感到擔憂。但交易員表示﹐由於市場中流動性充裕﹐中期內指數有望延續漲勢。藍籌恆生指數收盤上漲138.43點﹐ 至20,844.78點﹐漲幅0.67%。

收購傳聞推動澳大利亞股市升至歷史新高﹔據稱﹐力拓(Rio Tinto)拒絕了必和必拓(BHP)提出的每股110澳元的收購提議﹐這一消息提振了兩家公司股價。此外﹐儘管聯邦預算中的稅收和支出大幅下降﹐但市場 認為﹐擴張性的聯邦預算也對股市產生了有利影響。基準S&P/ASX 200指數收盤漲36.6點﹐至6341.0點﹐漲幅0.6%﹐盤中曾創下6382.7點歷史高位。

新加坡股市收盤走高﹐交易商表示﹐主 要受地產類股走高、華僑銀行(OCBC)第一季度收益增長一倍提振。標準普爾(Standard & Poor)證券部門將海峽時報指數年底目標從3,100點上調至4,100點﹐並將新加坡股市評級從與市場一致上調至增持﹔這也給股市帶來了提振。海峽時 報指數收盤上漲13.51點﹐至3452.72點﹐漲幅0.4%。

Malaysia hit new high of 1,363 ! China Correction Soon ?

KLSE CI has break up to all time high of 1363 point today. Wow!
But the China's correction is expected to happen soon.

Greed Vs Fear !

It's wiser to heed the warning signal from China, even though we are bullish over the longer term for Malaysia.

If your stock continue to surge in coming weeks, take profits is a better choice.
If your stock is already in correction mode, then sideline and do nothing.

The best strategy now is to wait patiently for the China's market correction, get ready your cash to buy/ accumulate your targeted stock at lower price if there is panic selling in Bursa Malaysia cause by the China factor.

China control steel export, Good for Steel Mill ?

▀ 中國將對部分鋼材實行出口許可證管理

Child's Education Fund @ 30/4/2007

The Lionind has perform better & faster that I expected.
The KLSE is in correction mode amid fear of sharp correction on China Stock Market.

Since most of the local investors appear getting ready for the China correction, the possible impact on local market will be minimal. (hopefully)