A Money Game, The Value is just an illusion

The stock market is just a money game. Hot money flow in, the stock value go up, Hot money flow out, the stock value go down.

The value in stock market is just an illusion. Confidence support the stock market to go up, Panic cause the market to crash.

Now is time to exit from the market, do not try to time the rebounce when the confidence has lost in the stock market & for the world economy.

The market will become ugly when the funds start to sell down !

Timing & Risk! Risk! Risk!

Equity & Property investment is all about Timing! Timing! & Timing!

The timing for equity investment now is bad. The chances for winning is so low that investor should just forget about shares now. Better to enjoy Movie/TV, traveling or Reading.

The risk is much higher now, you have global financial problem to worry like Euro zone & US debts problem.

You have property burble in HK & China to worry.

In Malaysia, the investment risk is not much better, due to political fights between PKR & UMNO & Economy slowing down in 2012-2013.

Now we have witness how the entire Govt mobilize the forces to attack the organiser of 'Bersih 2.0', this political drama & HEAT between UMNO & Pakatan Rakyat will get worsen when the next 'General Election' just around the corner, by this YEAR END.

Market News for Ho Hup Construction & Lion Ind.

This week we have 2 market news, one is Ho Hup Construction and the other one is Lion Ind.

My friend has told me that his friend ask him to buy Ho Hup because they has won a legal case that they can now to develop a land in KL that worth billions.

It's important to note that, yes! they has won the case, but this is only for the termination of the joint venture, not an extra land suddenly given to them, the land is always in their book, & most importantly this does not alter the fact that Ho Hup is still a -20 sen shareholder's fund PN17 company. Do you want to use 0.80 to buy a negative NTA PN17 company ?

A BIG NO! NO!


For Lion Industries, The news of Baosteel being a strategic partners is indeed a Very Good News for Lion Group. Investment from Baosteel will instantly solve partially of the Financial problem faced by Lion Group and unlock the value inside Lion Ind. As we all know Lion Ind hold most valuable assets under the Lion Group of companies.

If you buy under the current price of 1.80, you will not lose much if Baosteel investment not materialise, But you definitely will gain more than 30% once the deal is confirm.

I believe the chances is high now because William Cheng has not much choice, he need a white knight urgently.

人人讀商科 文化必低落

人人讀商科 文化必低落

2011年6月10日

【明報專訊】近來的股市像吃了瀉藥一般，不停下跌，真是黃腫腳不消提了。我也沒有興趣看股票機，所以根本想談股票也無從談起。有一條幾準的線叫我買時富金融(0510)，我也沒有落搭買入。因為在今日這種氣氛之下，實在還不適宜買股票。

那天同友人聊天，說起近來要搞的通識教育，我脫口而出：「這實在是一團混帳！只有完全沒有知識的蠢豬才能想得出來！」整個政府似乎沒有人知道什麼是通識教育，卻要推出這一科目，是不是沒有知識的蠢豬呢？

現不適宜買股票

其實，在傳統的教育制度，小學學的是語文能力和四則運算等等基本生存技能，中學學的文史數理化、地理經濟諸般科目，就是通識。所謂的「通識」，就是一些文化性和知識性的科目，什麼都學一點點。一些大學的通識科目，豈不就是科學概論、文學欣賞、藝術欣賞之類？

換句話說，中學本來教的就是通識，教育局是不是還有必要，另設一個通識專科出來呢？當然了，在以前，好的學生不是讀文科，就是讀理科，只有那些成績中下的，才會去讀商科，但是在現在，個個都去讀商科了，狀元盡在恒生商學院。個個讀商科的後果是什麼呢？就是整個社會的文化水平低落。這就是現在香港的狀——從高官到學生，都沒有知識，所以造成了一個反智的社會，這是互為影響的。

撰文：周顯

This Rally Has lose it's Strength, Rainy Day ahead.

The world & regional market all has lose it's STRENGTH.

The chances of going down is higher now & reducing the equity position is more appropriate.

The BULL Has Come Back

The market has once again showing some positive sign !

After S&P highlighted the negative prospect for the US dollar, more fund will dump the US Bond &
move to various assets class in Asia, more will go to South East Asia. ( Malaysia included )

We will see Regional & Malaysia stock market going up again ! Cheer!

Property, Plantation & Timber counter will be leading the way up,

2nd & 3rd liner, warrants & penny stock should be the best bet at this time when all blue chips counter is very much overvalued.

促泰益勿坚持连任输掉砂政权

IS MAHATHIR'S WARNING TO TAIB A HITS THAT SARAWAK IS IN DANGER FOR BN ?????

PRECAUTIONS FOR THE IMPACT ON EQUITY MARKET !!!

促泰益勿坚持连任输掉砂政权
马哈迪批柏特拉影响博客信誉

李龙辉 2011年4月14日 上午 11点39分

即时新闻

砂州选举进入倒数阶段，虽然砂州首长泰益玛目已宣布将在两年后退位，但是前首相马哈迪仍不忘提醒泰益应从历史中学习，以免因本身坚持连任而输掉州政权。

曾在位22年的马哈迪更以不点名的方式举例说，曾有一名州务大臣同样因为坚持想要连任，结果在州选时落得输掉州政权的下场。

“我们应从历史中学习，曾有一名州务大臣坚持要连任，结果输掉整个州。”

马哈迪今日在一场记者会上说，“如果你从错误中学习，你便不会重蹈覆辙。”

The Advantage of Being Small

The Bull has pause. The investing environment for the region has suddenly change tune to bearish.

At time of this uncertain investing environment, it's advisable to re examine your own portfolio, reduce shares exposure & increase your cash holding. (Buy & hold for long term is BS created by Fund Managers)

The advantage of small/ retail investor is that you can easily exit from the market. you can RUN within few minutes. Stay sideline & wait for the Bull Return.

有買貴無買錯的真義-周顯

有買貴無買錯的真義

2011年2月11日

【明報專訊】有一句股票界很流行的術語，叫作「有買貴，無買錯」。但很多人同時也知道，買貴了就是買錯了。有些人在大牛市時買入了很優質的大藍籌股，結果是吃了很多很多年的眼前虧，很久很久後才回到家鄉，當然是大呼後悔了。

首先大家知道，資金是需要成本的，其中利息當然是很重要的成本之一，而機會成本也是必須計算在內的。

跟我們也知道，公司還有可能穩定增長，而股價是很少穩定增長的。它的上升規律永遠是一大段日子不動，然後突然有了增長動力，在短時間中爆升上去。如果是莊家股，那就可能等上好幾年，莊家突然炒上，在這一段時間才會上升。

買貴純為減持貨時間

「有買貴，無買錯」的真義，就是你觀察一隻股票，認為它很有潛質。但是正如我一直所強調的，價值投資法的最大缺陷，就是不知什麼時候反映其價值，令投資者喪失了機會成本。

於是，我們往往必須觀察一隻股票很久，但卻不去購買。等它出現了異動、有了上升動力之後，才下手去購買。這時，股票的價格已上去了一部分，我們是買貴了貨，但是卻減少了持貨的時間，也即是減低了使用現金的機會成本，所以還是划算的。

這就是「有買貴，無買錯」的真義。

撰文：周顯

Johor Concept, Plantation, MRT,Greater KL Concert & Corporate Deal

2011 should be a good year for Equity. We have seen the volume surge above 30B for first 2 days after CNY.

BUT beware of the RISK. It's a common scene for a stock to plunge 30% in one day in a active market, if you are chasing high base on Rumours.

The following is the market mover news for this year:-

1)JOHOR DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT, HIGH SPEED TRAIN FROM SINGAPORE TO KL.
MY PICK= TEBRAU

2) MRT & GREATER KL CONCEPT.
MY PICK= METRO KAJANG, LIONIND

3) PLANTATION, THIS YEAR SHOULD BE A GOOD YEAR FOR PLANTATION DUE TO GLOBAL BAD WEATHER & FREQUENT NATURAL DISASTER.
MY PICK= KFIMA

4) CORPORATE DEAL, CORPORATE DEAL WILL EASILY GENERAL MARKET PARTICIPATION. CREATE A FILL GOOD ENVIRONMENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
MY PICK= DRBHICOM

EVEN WE ARE BULLISH ABOUT THE STOCK, BUT ALWAYS BEAR IN MIND, THE STOCK WE BOUGHT IS JUST A PAPER, IT IS VALUABLE ONLY IN BULL MARKET, IT HAS NO VALUE WHEN THE MARKET PLUNGE.

It's Common Sense for Institutional Fund Selling_WHY NOT ?

The equity market in the region is under correction mode after a good run in the first two weeks of January.

All funds that invested in Asian has made a double digit returns for their fund.

It's common sense they took profits now for their fund to realise this good profits.

We will see those highest performing counter to be badly hit in this correction, never go in to average down as we do not know when the Fund Manager will stop dumping the shares.

Let's the selling finished their job first. Just stay sideline & wait for the market to settle down.

寧買財務不穩的公司

周顯

【明報專訊】一家公司的財務結構究竟怎樣才算是完美？財務學的教科書不是說，要財務穩健，才叫做好的嗎？為什麼周顯大師你這「dropdead」(這個名詞不能寫中文)胡說八道，竟然支持高負債的公司呢？

如果你去經營一盤生意，當然得財務穩健，照足教科書的指示去做，但是，如果你去買一隻股票，那又是另一回事了。

朋友介紹美女給我認識，如果是高貴美麗、受過高等教育，人又清高不貪財，通常遇這種情，我會說不用介紹了。一個這樣高級的女生，會喜歡我嗎？大把名家公子可以選擇了。

同樣地，如果一個美女要找老公，我會叫她現實一點，樣偏衰、年紀偏大、孤寒、無錢，最少得挑一至兩樣，否則她將永遠當老姑婆。

優質資產能解財務問題

同樣地，一隻股票，一定有其壞處，否則股價早已飛了上天，買到了也是極大的風險。而我最喜歡選擇的，就是財務結構並不穩健，但有很優質資產在後面的那一種。

因為有優質資產，所以它就算是真的出現了財務問題，也會吸引到投資者去投入，為它解決問題。例如說，在金融海嘯時的高盛，便有巴菲特去打救。當然了，如果它沒有優質資產，那就是「聽執笠」了。

在投資市場，要發大達的機會只有三種，一種是在金融危機時買入，一種是在它轉型(turning point，例如虧轉盈，或盈利起飛，或注入資產)時買入，一種就是該公司的財務結構不穩時。我永遠都在尋找這三種機會。至於那些什麼條件都是第一流的公司，通常「值博率」都不高，還是留給the man in the street去追求吧。

WAITING FOR A NEGATIVE NEWS

The KLCI has been rising fast for past 1 month.

Break record high almost daily for the past 1 week !

The 2nd & 3rd liner may have room to play catch-up with the index, but I believe the market is waiting for a negative news to make a meaningful correction.

it's time to have a rest & reduce the position.

Re examine your portfolio & prepare for the shake -up.

The BULL will be stronger to chart new high after the shake-up.
(Will Foreign Fund enter Malaysia after they profit taking from Indonesia ???)

基金輸錢 但基金經理可發財

基金輸錢 但經理可發財

2010年12月14日

【明報專訊】有一個晚上，我和一伙豬朋們聚會，席間說及某位著名股評人，我說：「他寫得頗為不錯，而且在進步。」請注意我的用辭，是「頗為不錯」，而非「很好」，雖然，這評語在我的口中，已是很不容易的了。我的用辭一向精確，但常常遭人斷章取義，也是很沒奈何的事。

》[17:30]大市總結：成交3個月新低 向好指標性不大

朋友的回答是：「這位仁兄成立了一個基金，在金融海嘯時輸光了。」

我再答：「我知道他在金融海嘯後買了樓，證明他發了財。沒有可能基金執笠，而他則發財，第一個解釋是他買的股票和基金買的不一樣，第二個解釋是他在基金中偷了錢，而這兩個解釋是等價的：如果他不是在基金中偷錢，為甚麼他會和基金買不同的股票？」

通常由周顯大師說出來的答案，就是結論，而且是定論，就像是終審庭的判決，不能推翻，除非是人大釋法啦！

經理收「出場費」 眼光未必出眾

這故事又一次證明了我在《周顯發達指南》中的名句：「買基金的是豬」，因為買股票買錯了，只能怨自己的眼光不好，但是基金買錯了，是給別人害死，這 好比找人代打麻雀，這個人可能牌章比你還差，也有可能偷籌碼，也有可能同其他一至三家串通打籠通，而且他還收你「出場費」，這樣那樣之下，倒不如自己落場 打好過了。

既然「買基金的是豬」，政府和銀行強sell基金，也就有如焗賭。而在中國的傳統文化當中，「焗賭」是比「強姦」更為嚴重的罪行，所以我們可以說，政府和銀行「輪姦」了香港市民，這應該是恰當的說法。

另外，這篇稿打至半途，電腦無故關機，因此再寫了一遍，寫得好痛苦也。

撰文：周顯

KINSTEEL & PERWAJA SELL DOWN BY MAJU HOLDING

Kinsteel & It's subsidiary Perwaja is facing heavy sell down by shares in Maju Holding.

Both shares price started to fall from end Nov untill today closing. A check from Bursa indicated that all shares are sell down from Kenanga pledged securities accounts for Maju Holding.

Is this a force selling by Kenanga ? Has the force selling completed or more to come ?

IF investor in this 2 counter has cut loss strategy in place, then the losses will be caped at higher price level then now.

Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965

Reference No CU-101213-2D816

Company Name	:	KINSTEEL BHD
Stock Name	:	KINSTEL
Date Announced	:	13/12/2010

Name	:	Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.
Address	:	Level 21, Maju Tower, 1001 Jalan Sultan Ismail, 50250 Kuala Lumpur.
NRIC/Passport No/Company No.	:	40444-V
Nationality/Country of incorporation	:	Malaysia
Descriptions (Class & nominal value)	:	Ordinary Shares of RM0.20 each
Name & address of registered holder	:	Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.)

Details of changes
Currency : Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted ($$)
Disposed	26/11/2010	110,000
Disposed	29/11/2010	384,100
Disposed	30/11/2010	168,000
Disposed	01/12/2010	671,800
Disposed	02/12/2010	436,100
Disposed	03/12/2010	1,850,000
Disposed	06/12/2010	2,440,000
Disposed	08/12/2010	2,283,900
Disposed	09/12/2010	3,110,000

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred	:	Open-market sale.
Nature of interest	:	Direct
Direct (units)	:	176,368,700
Direct (%)	:	18.59
Indirect/deemed interest (units)	:	0
Indirect/deemed interest (%)	:	0
Total no of securities after change	:	176,368,700
Date of notice	:	10/12/2010

--------------------------------------------------------------

Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965

Reference No PH-101213-52964

Company Name	:	PERWAJA HOLDINGS BERHAD
Stock Name	:	PERWAJA
Date Announced	:	13/12/2010

Name	:	Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.
Address	:	Level 21, Maju Tower 1001 Jalan Sultan Ismail 50250 Kuala Lumpur
NRIC/Passport No/Company No.	:	40444-V
Nationality/Country of incorporation	:	Incorporated in Malaysia
Descriptions (Class & nominal value)	:	Ordinary shares of RM1.00 each
Name & address of registered holder	:	Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. Pledged Securities Account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.

Details of changes
Currency : Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted ($$)
Disposed	02/12/2010	50,000
Disposed	03/12/2010	70,000
Disposed	06/12/2010	127,200
Disposed	08/12/2010	300,000
Disposed	09/12/2010	474,200

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred	:	Open-market sale
Nature of interest	:	Direct
Direct (units)	:	23,978,600
Direct (%)	:	4.282
Indirect/deemed interest (units)	:	365,416,500
Indirect/deemed interest (%)	:	65.253
Total no of securities after change	:	389,395,100
Date of notice	:	10/12/2010
Remarks
1) Notification received on 13 December 2010 2) The direct interest of 23,978,600 shares are held by Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. pledged securities account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd. The indirect interest of 365,416,500 shares comprise of: (a) 209,100,000 shares held by Kinsteel Bhd (b) 30,000 shares held by MH Consultancy Services Sdn. Bhd. (c) 356,500 shares held by Ipmuda Berhad (d) 30,000 shares held by Edaran Maju-Muda Sdn. Bhd. (e) 2,020,000 shares held by Equal Concept Sdn. Bhd. (f) 153,880,000 shares held by Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. pledged securities account for Equal Concept Sdn. Bhd.

Window of Opportunity for Share Speculator

Malaysia is at a very dangerious position now as Najib Govt has opt for BIG SPENDING ON MEGA PROJECTS instead of the Policies Reform on the many structure weakness in our economy policy.

We may see Malaysia GDP improve in next 1 or 2 years, but we risk the Country going bankrupt in year 2020.

The out look for Malaysia Economy will not be good & this short term benefits & Feel Good sentiment is actually an opportunity of window for market speculator. ( from now to next GE)

Series of M&A, Corporate deal in GLC will help to push up market volume & indexes, attract more market participation, retail & institution.

Market timer, trend follower will be the main winner, Long term buy & hold investor will be the loser.

Enjoy the party, make more profits, then don't forget to exit the market when the party end.

Keck Seng : Is Bonus Issue A Bonus ?

After making a huge gain from disposal of Parkway, many investor expect Keck Seng to announce some good news.

Keck Seng finally announce it will giving out bonus issue of 1 to 2 in it's latest announcement.

It's share price has react positively to reach all time high of 6.50 in Wed.

Bonus issue actually is not bonus to investor, it has in fact increase the share base of the company but the market cap is still the same. it has 0 effects on the value of the company.

But i still 'hold' on to Keck Seng, hopefully the real GOOD news will be announce later.

Is Our Retail Investor Coming Back To Stock Market ?

Lately I have met with two different officer in two Investment Bank, one work in OSK, another one work in PBB. They all have claim that the retail investor has coming back to Local Stock market, actively trading shares..

I believe so !

The retail investor will come back after local stock market make good gain for past 2 years. The active market will make the stock market more attractive to them, a good alternative other than FD.

Now the property's price has break record high level & it's difficult to go higher, the fund will definitely divert to stock market.

When the real economy not performing well, usually the businessman will mobilized the extra/idle fund to invest into stock.

SO OUR LOCAL STOCK MARKET, BURSA MALAYSIA SOON WILL BREAK THE 1,500 POINT & MOVE HIGHER. NEVER LOOK BACK.

BUT IF YOU WANT TO GET GOOD RETURNS, THEN 2ND & 3RD LINER WILL BE THE IDEAL COUNTER.

STEEL , Rise with a HOPE (DREAM)

We can see the rotation play in the market,

The Steel Counter has started to move up after Property, Plantation & Contruction Counter has risen.

The reason or excuse for the Steel Counter to move is simple, i.e Steel counter will benefit from all the implementation of the Mega Projects under the 2011 budget.

BUT, JUST BE REALISTIC, NEVER HOPE FOR THE SURGE LIKE YEAR 2008 WHERE THE STEEL PRICE HAS RISEN LIKE ROCKET. THE STEEL PRICE GO UP ALMOST 100% WITHIN 1 YEAR PERIOD.

No more ! The year 2008 event is historic & it happen once in a century, the price surge in 2008 is mainly due to structural problem in supply & demand.

And now the situation is totally different:- 1)the China effects has reduce due to policy shift from export to local consumption and no longer focus on low cost production, 2) The world is over supply in Steel.

I do not see there are big increase in Steel Price, most likely it will be go up or down within a tight range.

BIG PROJECTS, SMALL CAP

Investor always make a mistake, they look at share price, but never try to compute the market cap.

A stock price at 0.20 is not necessary is a small cap company if their share base is big.
A stock price at 0.50 may be a small cap company if their share base is small , let say 300 mil shares. ie the market cap is only 150 mil (0.50 x 300 mil shares.)

Now I am convince that The Najib Govt is spending BIG in Infra Projects.
All 'NEM', 'ETP' is just a slogan, the actual intention is to give out more & more SUPER MEGA PROJECTS.

A small retail investor like me, no need to follow the Fund Manager to go into BIG CAP company.

We can make better returns by go into small cap counter take will benefited from the BIG Projects.

The returns can be easily 50%- 100%.

This is indeed the ADVANTAGE of being small.

My bet: ZELAN, IJM-WC, MALTON, KBUNAI, AZRB