Iron-Price Surge Hits Asian Firms

亞洲鋼鐵企業遭遇鐵礦石坐地起價
英 | 大 | 中 | 小
2008年02月19日10:44
日
本和韓國的鋼鐵企業與巴西礦業巨頭淡水河谷公司(Companhia Vale do Rio Doce)達成協議﹐同意將鐵礦石價格上調65%。這將推動大型礦業公司的利潤增長﹐不過各鋼鐵企業及其在世界各地的客戶卻要為此付出代價。

此次價格上漲表明﹐雖然市場擔心美國可能引發全球經濟放緩﹐但對鋼材和鐵礦石等原材料的需求仍很旺盛。分析人士預計﹐在未來幾週中﹐中國及其他國家和地區的鋼鐵企業達成的鐵礦石採購價格會與此相當﹐甚至更高。

這也證實了必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)、力拓股份有限公司(Rio Tinto Plc)和淡水河谷等少數幾家大型礦業公司的市場地位在不斷增強。上述三家公司的鐵礦石供應量超過了全球鐵礦石出口總量的70%﹐而這些公司之間計劃進行的併購可能會進一步增強其在大宗商品市場上的影響力。

此前﹐必和必拓向力拓發出了1,400億美元的主動收購要約﹐分析人士認為原因在於必和必拓希望佔有更多的鐵礦石供應。與此同時﹐淡水河谷也在尋求與瑞士礦業公司Xstrata PLC進行合併。

近年來鐵礦石需求一路飆升﹐其戰略地位越來越重要﹐因此各大礦業公司都在尋求進行併購。鐵礦石是煉鋼的基本原料之一﹐用於建造辦公樓、高速公路和工廠﹐它為亞洲的工業化帶來了支撐﹐而其中中國的工業化進程尤其迅猛。

與其他大宗商品的定價方法不同﹐鐵礦石價格是在每年礦業公司與客戶秘密進行的會議上敲定的﹐而不是通過國際交易所定價。2005年鐵礦石價格上漲了 71.5%﹐2006年漲了19%﹐2007年漲了9.5%﹐由於鋼鐵生產商很不情愿接受這樣幅度的漲價﹐近年來定價會議的氣氛變得異常緊張。

今年﹐大部分大宗商品分析人士最初預計鐵礦石價格將上漲約30%。不過鐵礦石需求的增長仍高於供應的增長﹐因此近來他們開始預計價格上漲幅度還要大。

日本的新日本製鐵(Nippon Steel Corp.)和韓國的浦項綜合製鐵公司(Posco)週一表示﹐同意對4月1日起發貨的鐵礦石﹐以每噸78.9美元的價格支付淡水河谷﹐較去年上漲了 65%。日本的JFE Steel Corp.也同意將價格上調65%。淡水河谷在一份聲明中證實了價格的上漲﹐並表示2008年的價格反映出全球鐵礦石市場上供不應求的局面仍在繼續。分析人士預計﹐這些價格協議將成為2008年全球鐵礦石議價的基準﹐而包括中國鋼鐵企業在內的鋼鐵生產商將同意接受類似幅度、甚至更大幅度的漲價。

力拓週一發表了一份聲明﹐表示還在與客戶就2008年鐵礦石價格進行談判﹐暗示公司打算等待時機達成比淡水河谷價格更高的協議。必和必拓拒絕對此發表評論。

澳洲銀行(National Australia Bank)駐墨爾本的分析師杰拉德•伯格(Gerard Burg)說﹐毫無疑問這是一個賣方市場﹐考慮到近來流向中國的產量﹐日本鋼鐵公司可能會擔心自己必須不計代價地爭取供應商。

日本股市投資者為這樁交易歡呼雀躍﹐這或許是因為他們原來擔心的結果較之更糟。在東京證券交易所﹐新日本製鐵(Nippon Steel Corp.)的股票價格週一上漲3.2%﹐至575日圓（合5.33美元）。JFE Steel Corp.的母公司JFE Holdings Inc.上漲6.3%﹐至4,410日圓。

力拓暗示公司無意就此達成協議﹐而是要從亞洲客戶那里爭取到更好的價格。該公司認為其有理由比淡水河谷公司要價高﹐因為比起巴西﹐澳大利亞的礦產離中國和日本等亞洲客戶更近﹐運輸費用因而更低。

據知情人士稱﹐中國最大的煉鋼企業寶鋼集團的董事長徐樂江週日在北京的一次行業會議上向與會者表示﹐中國打算沿用日本談判者設定的價格。過去﹐寶鋼曾代表中國鋼鐵行業與供應商進行鐵礦石談判。寶鋼發言人拒絕就此置評。

鋼鐵企業無疑將會力圖把最新的價格上漲轉嫁到客戶頭上﹐令全球製造廠商的日子更難過。浦項綜合製鐵公司已經在1月份將熱壓卷材的價格提高到每噸607美元﹐漲幅達11.5%﹔最近幾個月﹐其他煉鋼廠也相繼提高了價格。

中國杭州鋼鐵集團(Hangzhou Steel Group)的區域營銷經理李濟（音）說﹐公司絕對會受到近期漲價的影響﹐因為公司超過90%的原料都來自海外。

李濟說﹐這會給工廠帶來嚴重的成本壓力﹐可能會導致產品銷售價格上漲20%至30%。由於工廠內部已經沒有降低成本的空間﹐因此唯一能做的就是將上漲的價格轉嫁到客戶頭上﹐他還預計鋼材價格今年將猛漲。

這樣的漲價會不會持續下去將取決於世界經濟是否都會受到美國經濟減緩的影響。

一些分析師認為﹐2008年將會成為鐵礦石價格的一個高峰年。必和必拓和力拓正在增加產能﹐其他規模較小的公司也籌集了大筆資金開發鐵礦與上述兩家公司競爭。

澳大利亞股票經紀和金融服務公司Ord Minnett在最近的一篇研究報告中指出﹐澳大利亞上市公司當前所開採新礦的鐵礦石供應量可達每年10億噸。但該公司警告說﹐這些新的供應量大部分要到2015年才能用上﹐併指出其中一些開採活動可能會以失敗告終。

Iron-Price Surge Hits Asian Firms
漢 | 大 | 中 | 小
2008年02月19日10:44
Japanese and Korean steelmakers agreed to a 65% increase in the price of iron ore with Brazilian mining power Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, boosting the fortunes of big mining firms at the expense of steel producers and their customers world-wide.

The price increase, which analysts expect to be matched or even topped in deals with steelmakers in China and elsewhere in the weeks ahead, suggests that demand for raw materials like steel and iron ore is holding up well, despite fears of a U.S.-led global economic slowdown.

It also confirms the growing market power of a few big mining companies, including BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto PLC and Vale. Together, those three companies supply more than 70% of the world's exported iron ore, and their efforts to consolidate could magnify their clout in commodity markets in the future.

BHP Billiton has made an unsolicited $140 billion bid for Rio Tinto, which analysts believe is driven by BHP's desire to lock up even more iron-ore supply. Vale, meanwhile, is pursuing a possible merger with Swiss miner Xstrata PLC.

That activity comes at a time of rising strategic importance for iron ore, demand for which has skyrocketed in recent years. As a basic ingredient in steel, it is needed to build the office towers, highways and factories that underpin Asia's industrialization, which is especially rapid in China.

Unlike pricing of other commodities, iron ore's price is hammered out in top-secret annual meetings between miners and their customers rather than on international exchanges. The meetings have grown unusually testy in recent years, as steelmakers reluctantly swallowed price increases of 9.5% in 2007, 19% in 2006 and 71.5% in 2005.

This year, most commodities analysts were initially expecting a price increase of about 30%. But iron-ore demand has continued to outpace supply, and more recently the market had started to expect an even more sizable jump.

Yesterday, Japan's Nippon Steel Corp. and Posco of South Korea said they agreed to pay Vale $78.90 per ton, or 65% more than last year, for iron ore to be shipped from April 1. JFE Steel Corp. of Japan also agreed to a 65% increase. 'The prices for 2008 reflect the continuing excess demand in the global iron ore market,' Vale said in a statement confirming the price agreements. Analysts expect those agreements to become the benchmark for all other negotiations world-wide to set prices for 2008 and that other producers -- including steelmakers in China -- will agree to a similar or even greater increase.

Rio Tinto released a statement yesterday saying negotiations on 2008 ore prices with its customers 'are continuing' and suggesting the company intends to hold out for a higher price than that reached in the Vale agreements. BHP declined to comment.

'There's no doubt it's a seller's market,' says Gerard Burg, an analyst at National Australia Bank in Melbourne. 'Given the volumes heading to China in recent times, there may be some concern among Japanese steelmakers that they just have to have access to supplies' no matter what the cost, he says.

Japanese stock market investors cheered the deal, perhaps because they feared the outcome could have been even worse. On the Tokyo stock exchange, Nippon Steel's share price rose 3.2% to 575 yen ($5.33) yesterday. JFE Holdings Inc., the parent company of JFE Steel Corp., rose 6.3% to 4,410 yen.

Rio Tinto indicated it intends to hold out in hopes of securing bigger payouts from its Asian customers. The company believes it warrants a higher price than Vale because its Australian mines are much closer to Asian customers like China and Japan, resulting in lower shipping costs compared with ore shipped from Brazil.

On Sunday, Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel Group Co., China's largest steelmaker, suggested to attendees at an industry conference in Beijing that China would aim to follow the prices set by the Japanese negotiators, according to a person briefed on his remarks. In the past, Baosteel has represented the Chinese steel industry in iron-ore talks with suppliers. A Baosteel spokeswoman declined to comment.

Steelmakers will no doubt try to pass the latest price increases to their customers, making life more difficult for manufacturers globally. Posco had already raised the price of hot-rolled coil steel 11.5% to $607 a ton in January, and other steelmakers have increased prices in recent months.

Li Ji, a regional marketing manager for Hangzhou Steel Group of China, said his company 'would be definitely affected' by the latest price increases as more than 90% of its raw material comes from overseas.

'This will bring serious cost pressure to our factory, probably resulting in an increase of 20% to 30% to selling price of our product,' Mr. Li said. 'Since our factory has no room to reduce costs, the only thing we can do is transfer the price hike to customers. I expect steel prices to be going up sharply this year.'

Whether such price increases can be sustained will depend on whether the global economy hangs together in the face of slowing U.S. growth.

Some analysts believe 2008 could wind up being a high-water mark for iron-ore prices. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are adding new capacity, and other, smaller companies have raised huge sums of money to launch competing mines. (Please see related article on Page 17)

In a recent research report, Australian stockbroking and financial-services firm Ord Minnett said there could be as many as one billion metric tons of new supply a year under development by listed Australian companies. But the broker warned it could be 2015 before much of that new supply comes online, and added that some of the ventures could fall through.

Patrick Barta / Sebastian Moffett

EDUCATION MUST START FROM THE YOUNG AGE

I even hear it from radio, the advertisement from AKPK to ask those in debts & facing financial problem to see them for solution.

This is good to lend a hand on those in debts problem, find a workable solution for them.

But this is not the best approach, because there are already trapped by the 'DEBTS', they are in sickness already.

The best approach is to educate the financial planning skill from the young age. Just start the financial education from school level ( primary or secondary school).

A lot of social problems can be avoided if they have some 'FQ'!


THE STAR NEWS
1,600 turn to Bank Negara’s AKPK unit every month

By RASHVINJEET S. BEDI

KUALA LUMPUR: Every month, more than 1,600 individuals turn to the Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency (AKPK) to help them overcome their financial difficulties.

The number seeking help monthly has tripled since the agency was set up 18 months.

Of the number that receives counselling, more than 25%, or 430 individuals, sign up for the Debt Management Programme, through which AKPK helps them renegotiate their loan repayment schemes with financial institutions.

AKPK chief executive Mohamed Akwal Sultan believes that more people are finding themselves in financial trouble because of poor financial knowledge.

“The sample size is small and may not be a true reflection of the nation’s problem. It is likely to be a much bigger problem,” said Akwal, adding that more people were seeking AKPK’s expertise.

AKPK is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bank Negara that provides financial counselling and debt-management services to individuals at no cost.

Last year, 6,837 individuals sought help from the agency. This number almost tripled to 20,853 individuals up to October this year.

“Many people come to us when they are no longer able to manage their debts,” said Akwal.

Most of those who approach AKPK come from the Klang Valley and are in their 30s and 40s.

“At this age, the cost of living goes up generally because people have commitments such as family and housing payments,” said Akwal.

Other reasons contribute to their financial problems, the main causes being loss of control over the use of credit cards and poor financial planning (see chart).

As of September this year, the total household debts stood at RM351bil, with the ratio of non-performing-loans at 7%.

A non-performing loan (NPL) one that is in default or close to being in default. Many loans become non-performing after being in default for three months, although this can depend on the contract terms.

“At a single digit, the debt in Malaysia is still manageable,” said Akwal.

“The statistics show that our household indebtedness to the banking sector in Malaysia remains within prudent levels at 52.1% of the GDP,” he added.

Credit card debts alone stood at RM21.6bil, with non-payment of credit card loans amounting to RM591mil, or at an NPL ratio of 2.7%.

“If you look at (the NPL for) credit cards alone, the percentage is small. It’s not a big problem,” said Akwal.

It is for this reason that Akwal would like to promote the use of credit cards if given the opportunity.

“The credit card is like a kitchen knife. It has many uses but if you are not careful, you can cut yourself,” he said.

DR AZAM, 28, had it all: two flashy cars, a beautiful home and a flourishing career. He wore expensive clothes and lived extravagantly on credit.

He renovated his mother’s home and decorated it with expensive Italian furniture. He took a loan for the renovation and bought another house.

Without realising it, Dr Azam owed creditors RM400,000 in housing loans, hire-purchase loans and credit card debts.

Stuck, he approached the AKPK for help. Being single and with his mother being the only dependant, Dr Azam was advised to sell his house. He moved in with his mother and sold one of his cars.

In the end, Dr Azam was able to save 45% of his monthly loan payment.

BEFORE the economic crisis of 1997, Allen was a sales manager earning a five-figure monthly salary, living a comfortable life. However, the economic downturn forced his employers to shut down operations in Malaysia.

At 43, it was hard for him to find a new job. To complicate matters, his wife has a medical condition.

Allen turned to loans and credit cards to fund his lifestyle. Soon enough, creditors began hunting him and threatening bankruptcy.

Suicidal, Allen turned to odd jobs, making less than RM1,000 a month. He skipped meals to ensure his wife had something to eat.

His wife changed his mind about suicide and suggested that he seek the help of AKPK.

Allen had RM200,000 in his EPF, although he could only withdraw the money at 55.

With a debt of RM130,000, AKPK advised him to consider bankruptcy as an option, so that he would be able to settle all his debts when he turns 55.

CHINA LIFE - HK

大行推介 [昔日新聞]
野村：中壽過貴宜沽
業績無驚喜 增長放緩 2007年11月1日

【明報專訊】中國人壽(2628)最近按內地會計準則公布今年第3季度業績，純利達78億元(人民幣‧下同)，相當於06年全年純利的81%，每股盈利0.27元。但野村證券指出，有關業績與該行預期相若，並沒有帶來任何驚喜，相反保單失效率及保費增長有放緩舻象，令該行感到憂慮，加上中壽估值偏貴，因此野村仍維持中壽的減持評級，合理價為 44港元(建議時中壽做52港元)。

保單失效率增 保費僅升2%

中壽並沒有公布06年第3季度業績作比較，但 07年第3季度純利，已相當於06年全年純利81%。野村指出，中壽業績繼續受惠於強勁的A股市場表現，單是第3季A股指數已茘升45%，因此中壽季度投資收入多達240億元，相當於期內整體收入的40%，值得注意的是中壽的投資回報率，由今年上半年的5.7%，急增至第3季度的8.6%。

保單失效率方面，由06年全年的4.8%增至今年第3季的4.9%，野村認為可能由於愈來愈多保單持有人斷保，將資金轉投股市所致，這亦是內地保險業一個明顯趨勢。中壽並沒有公布保費的詳細資料，但按照中壽壽險總負債推算其保費變化情，野村則認為情令人憂慮，因為按此計算，保費增幅只有2%，是今年以來最低，今年首兩季增幅均維持3.5%，但野村也承認，這可能與季節性因素有關。

手持現金600億 苦無出路

野村亦留意到中壽資本水平極高，手持現金高逾600億元，公司有水浸之嫌，問題是該股如何有效運用該筆現金。

經調整中港兩地會計準則的差異後，野村估計，以本地會計準則計算的第3季度業績，應與該行預期相若，該行的預期亦是處於市場預期範圍的上限位置。按野村最新估計，中壽07年至09年純利分別為440億、383億及326億元。雖然中壽季度業績強勁，但野村基於估值偏高原因，維持中壽的減持評級及合理價44港元不變。

Bank of East Asia-HK

東亞回吐7.3％ 披露商討敏感交易
2007年12月8日

【明報專訊】近日消息多多的東亞銀行(0023)，過去7天隨覑大市升近三成後，昨日顯著回落，收市價較前日下滑7.3%，報53.9元。東亞昨日傍晚發表公告表示，不知悉導致價格下跌的任何原因，但透露該行「正與第三方商討構成或可能構成價格敏感資料的有關可能交易」。

東亞昨日以61元高開，但隨後回落並跌幅擴大，最後以53.9元接近全日低位收市。該行在公告中指：「董事會已知悉最近公司的股份的價格下跌，茲聲明本行並不知悉導致價格下跌的任何原因。本行謹確認，除本行正與第三方商討構成或可能構成價格敏感資料的有關可能交易外，目前並無任何有關收購或變賣的商談或協議……而須予公開者。」

中銀增持至今 升勢凌厲

東亞是近日升幅最凌厲的銀行股，上月28日至周四短短7個交易日，累積升幅達到27％，即使昨日顯著回落，股價仍然比上月底升近18％。該行上月中獲中銀香港(2388)以近40億元，每股51元代價，購入約7750萬股份，佔東亞已發行股份的4.94%。東亞主席李國寶其後表示，不排除中銀香港日後增持。

FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR, HONG KONG IS THE BEST MARKET !

China Shifts Policy To Choke Inflation

2007年12月07日11:36
The announcement by China's leadership of a tougher economic policy for 2008 shows a new consensus that more has to be done to address risks of inflation and overheating in the nation's fast-growing economy.

The new position, which formalizes a policy shift already under way over the past couple of months, was announced yesterday at the close of the annual Central Economic Work Conference chaired by President Hu Jintao.

The rise in inflation, which this year was running at 4.4% through October, has become a major concern of the leadership and has apparently trumped any worries about a slowdown in the world economy.

Although policy makers have been expressing concerns about rapid growth in bank lending and corporate investment for some time, inflation brought new worries of eroding living standards and increased social tensions.

China's inflation has so far been confined mostly to food prices, but it is a definite concern. In October, for example, cooking oil cost 34% more than a year earlier. Policy makers say their goal is to prevent such price increases from spreading throughout the economy.

In order to achieve that, a 'tight' monetary policy will be followed for 2008, a rare and significant change in the official stance. Since the middle of this year, officials had characterized China's monetary policy as 'stable-to-tight,' which itself was somewhat tougher language than the previous standard of a 'stable' monetary policy.

The new policy was announced by the central bank and the main economic-planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, two bodies sometimes seen to be at odds.

What form next year's tighter policy could take is uncertain, but more direct controls of bank lending seem certain to be part of the mix. In recent weeks, the central bank has been rolling out a tougher supervision system to try to ensure that commercial banks next year will adhere to often-ignored lending quotas.

If inflation doesn't retreat, some further interest-rate increases are also possible. The benchmark deposit rate, at 3.87%, is below the rate of inflation -- meaning households are effectively losing money on bank savings.

Analysts say measures taken this year have been moderate and have done relatively little to restrain economic activity. Five increases in interest rates have barely kept up with accelerating inflation, thus the cost of borrowing didn't rise, or even declined, in real terms.

The central bank has also periodically ordered commercial banks to keep more money on reserve. But such increases in the so-called reserve-requirement ratio just kept up with the flow of cash into the economy from the country's large trade surplus, and so haven't seriously restricted the funds available for lending.

Indeed, economic growth accelerated to 11.5% for the first three quarters of this year, from 11.1% in 2006, and its momentum is powerful. Most analysts expect only a very moderate slowdown next year, even taking into account the weakening U.S. economy and tighter domestic policy. The State Information Center, a Chinese government think tank, this week forecast economic growth of 10.8% for 2008.

Many economists also expect China to allow its currency to strengthen at a faster pace next year, in part because a stronger currency helps combat inflation by making imports cheaper. The yuan has risen about 5.5% against the U.S. dollar this year, but the effect of that gain has so far been limited because the dollar itself has been sharply declining against other currencies.

Andrew Batson

TONGHER IS ATTRACTIVE

I SAW THIS IN HIS BLOG "nexttrade.blogspot.com"

Tongher testing strong support of RM3.36-40

Tongher has just announced its results for QE30/9/2007 . Its net profit declined by 38% q-o-q or 26% y-o-y to RM15.2 million while its turnover of RM139 million is slightly lower than that recorded in QE30/6/2007 but 58% higher than that reported in the same quarter last year. The poor performance was attributed to lower demand for its products, which coupled with higher raw material costs, has resulted in a drop in its profit margin.



The share price has dropped back since making its high of RM4.53 recorded on October 1st. The sharp price run-up in September & October preceded the bonus issue of 1:3, which went ex on October 16. Since then, the share price has corrected back about 22% (based on yesterday's closing price of RM3.52). In this morning session, the share price dropped 12 sen to close at RM3.40. This is very near the strong horizontal support of RM3.36-40 level, where a rebound may happen. If this support is violated, then the share price may test its uptrend line support at RM3.06-10 level. The uptrend line support could be a entry level for this very well-managed company.

Based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 61 sen, Tongher is now trading at a trailing PE of 5-6 times. We do not know what's Tongher's future EPS will be, but assuming that it is 30% lower than the last 4 quarters' EPS, Tongher could be earning about 43 sen per share. Thus, at the price of RM3.40, it may be trading at a future PE of 8 times. Even at this adjusted earning, Tongher is still an attractive stock. Watch this stock closely.

TONGHER IS A LONG TERM GROWTH STOCK, TO ACCUMULATE ON DIP WHEN MARKET IN CORRECTION MODE IS A GOOD IDEA.

PARKSON HK LATEST QTR RESULTS

百盛上季多賺45% 符預期 (明報) 11月 24日 星期六 05:05AM

【明報專訊】百盛（3368）昨公布第3季度業績，營業額上升32%至6.95億元（人民幣．下同），股東應佔利潤上升45%至1.5億元，符合市場預期。百盛已連續第8季取得超過40%以上的盈利增長。

連續8季增長逾40%

美林早前發表報告指，公司連續7季錄得超過40%的盈利增長，並指同店銷售增長、收購以及稅率調低等因素支持下，預期07至09年度的每股盈利複合年增長達39%。美林也表示，公司有望在短期內再向母公司收購資產，又可能拆細股份，均有機會推動股價。百盛經營的百貨店數目達40間，根據法巴報告，公司計劃每12個月增加3至5間新店，看重二、三線城市的消費能力上升。

內地10月零售銷售增長加速至18%，作為內地零售消費股的百盛，受全球經濟放緩影響也較小。

根據百盛第3季度業績報告顯示，今年前3季營業額上升48.2%至21.8億元，經營利潤增加53%至7億元。

HOW MILLIONS OF DOLLAR IS WASTED - 3

PROTON SAGA 20 YEARS AGO


PROTON SAGA TODAY.

DO U SEE IMPROVEMENT ?

ADDED 2 LINK

I have added 2 link in my blog:

1)Samgoss - He has make good recommendation on stocks in Bursa Malaysia. But most importantly he only recommend undervalue stock based on Fundamental.

2)Talk & Share - A place to share opinion and seek advise.

HOW MILLIONS OF DOLLAR IS WASTED - 2

MPSP BUILDING IN BANDAR PERDA. BUKIT MERTAJAM, PENANG.

Another good example of how public fund is wasted in constructing a high rise 'WHITE ELEPHANT'

Do we need a high rise building like this one for a small town district council ?