寧買財務不穩的公司

周顯

【明報專訊】一家公司的財務結構究竟怎樣才算是完美？財務學的教科書不是說，要財務穩健，才叫做好的嗎？為什麼周顯大師你這「dropdead」(這個名詞不能寫中文)胡說八道，竟然支持高負債的公司呢？

如果你去經營一盤生意，當然得財務穩健，照足教科書的指示去做，但是，如果你去買一隻股票，那又是另一回事了。

朋友介紹美女給我認識，如果是高貴美麗、受過高等教育，人又清高不貪財，通常遇這種情，我會說不用介紹了。一個這樣高級的女生，會喜歡我嗎？大把名家公子可以選擇了。

同樣地，如果一個美女要找老公，我會叫她現實一點，樣偏衰、年紀偏大、孤寒、無錢，最少得挑一至兩樣，否則她將永遠當老姑婆。

優質資產能解財務問題

同樣地，一隻股票，一定有其壞處，否則股價早已飛了上天，買到了也是極大的風險。而我最喜歡選擇的，就是財務結構並不穩健，但有很優質資產在後面的那一種。

因為有優質資產，所以它就算是真的出現了財務問題，也會吸引到投資者去投入，為它解決問題。例如說，在金融海嘯時的高盛，便有巴菲特去打救。當然了，如果它沒有優質資產，那就是「聽執笠」了。

在投資市場，要發大達的機會只有三種，一種是在金融危機時買入，一種是在它轉型(turning point，例如虧轉盈，或盈利起飛，或注入資產)時買入，一種就是該公司的財務結構不穩時。我永遠都在尋找這三種機會。至於那些什麼條件都是第一流的公司，通常「值博率」都不高，還是留給the man in the street去追求吧。

WAITING FOR A NEGATIVE NEWS

The KLCI has been rising fast for past 1 month.

Break record high almost daily for the past 1 week !

The 2nd & 3rd liner may have room to play catch-up with the index, but I believe the market is waiting for a negative news to make a meaningful correction.

it's time to have a rest & reduce the position.

Re examine your portfolio & prepare for the shake -up.

The BULL will be stronger to chart new high after the shake-up.
(Will Foreign Fund enter Malaysia after they profit taking from Indonesia ???)

狭隘的政治目的

政府首席秘书西迪违反一般的礼节，在没有事先知会雪州大臣的情况下，就透过媒体擅自宣布擢升古斯林。国阵中央急于夺回雪州，为了狭隘的政治目的.

Najib & BN Govt should respect the Voter's rights in choosing the Pakatan Rakyat State Govt.
It's a shame by using 'sabotage' tactics to destroy the current Selangor State Govt and neglected the interest of the people of Selangor.

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Malaysiakini.com

雪州号召集体祈祷展现民众力量
受促召开紧急州议会否决古斯林


雪州秘书人选风波继续延烧，虽然雪州苏丹秘书声称获得苏丹首肯的争议性雪州宗教局总监古斯林（Mohd Khusrin Munawi）铁定出任州秘书，决定不能受到质疑；但是雪州政府却丝毫不肯让步，并号召在全州举行集体祈祷会，试图透过汇集群众力量，作为与联邦政府博弈的后盾。

另一方面，雪州议员助理协会也促请雪州政府召开紧急州议会，以动议否决中央政府插手雪州事务，委任古斯林为雪州秘书，避免古斯林成为雪州民联政府的肉中刺。

该会主席阿都拉查声称，必须召开紧急雪州议会来保护雪州人民的利益，以阻止巫统及国阵利用皇室来夺权雪州政权。

原任秘书3月20日才退休

此外，雪州政府也驳斥雪州苏丹秘书莫哈末慕尼尔（Mohamad Munir Bani）归咎雪州政府太迟提呈州秘书人选填补州秘书空缺的说法。

雪州大臣秘书法依卡发表文告指出，没有任何条文规定州秘书的委任必须在在某个期限内进行，更何况原任州秘书蓝里玛目的任期本来是到2011年3月20日才截至。

获得政府首席秘书西迪擢升为雪州秘书的古斯林的任期是在明年1月1日生效。

邓章沁领导三人遴选委会

法依卡也指出，雪州政府早在11月27日，根据公共局服务惯例，成立遴选州秘书的委员会。有关的委员会是由雪州议长邓章钦以及两名行政议员，即哈山阿里及西维尔所组成。遴选委员会并对6名获得州秘书办公室及人力局所推荐的候选人进行面试。

遴选委员会较后拟出入围者的名单，而雪州大臣也在12月17日把有关的名单呈交给雪州苏丹，以填补州秘书一职。

开启透明遴选高官的风气

雪州政府指出，虽然成立遴选委员会并非是一项硬性规定，但是民联政府已经开启了透明、自由及负责任遴选高官的风气，州务大臣并未使用本身的特权遴选高官。

雪州民联政府也对州秘书人选出现争议感到遗憾，并认为一些有机心者为了达到本身的政治目而利用皇室。法依卡点出，古斯林担任州秘书的风波，是接踵在巫统宣布首相纳吉继续执掌雪州巫统之后发生。

雪州民联也要求雪州人民保持冷静，勿做出任何无法协助寻找最佳解决方案的挑衅言论。

大臣官邸明日傍晚集体祈祷

雪州民联政府也鼓励回教组织及非回教组织，在州内根据本身的信仰进行集体祈祷，祷求上苍赐力量及智慧给雪州苏丹及雪州领导层以解决这项误会。

雪州大臣卡立已经在其面子书上，邀请民众前往大臣官邸，出席明日傍晚6点半所举行的祷佑雪州安宁集体祈祷会。

基金輸錢 但基金經理可發財

基金輸錢 但經理可發財

2010年12月14日

【明報專訊】有一個晚上，我和一伙豬朋們聚會，席間說及某位著名股評人，我說：「他寫得頗為不錯，而且在進步。」請注意我的用辭，是「頗為不錯」，而非「很好」，雖然，這評語在我的口中，已是很不容易的了。我的用辭一向精確，但常常遭人斷章取義，也是很沒奈何的事。

》[17:30]大市總結：成交3個月新低 向好指標性不大

朋友的回答是：「這位仁兄成立了一個基金，在金融海嘯時輸光了。」

我再答：「我知道他在金融海嘯後買了樓，證明他發了財。沒有可能基金執笠，而他則發財，第一個解釋是他買的股票和基金買的不一樣，第二個解釋是他在基金中偷了錢，而這兩個解釋是等價的：如果他不是在基金中偷錢，為甚麼他會和基金買不同的股票？」

通常由周顯大師說出來的答案，就是結論，而且是定論，就像是終審庭的判決，不能推翻，除非是人大釋法啦！

經理收「出場費」 眼光未必出眾

這故事又一次證明了我在《周顯發達指南》中的名句：「買基金的是豬」，因為買股票買錯了，只能怨自己的眼光不好，但是基金買錯了，是給別人害死，這 好比找人代打麻雀，這個人可能牌章比你還差，也有可能偷籌碼，也有可能同其他一至三家串通打籠通，而且他還收你「出場費」，這樣那樣之下，倒不如自己落場 打好過了。

既然「買基金的是豬」，政府和銀行強sell基金，也就有如焗賭。而在中國的傳統文化當中，「焗賭」是比「強姦」更為嚴重的罪行，所以我們可以說，政府和銀行「輪姦」了香港市民，這應該是恰當的說法。

另外，這篇稿打至半途，電腦無故關機，因此再寫了一遍，寫得好痛苦也。

撰文：周顯

KINSTEEL & PERWAJA SELL DOWN BY MAJU HOLDING

Kinsteel & It's subsidiary Perwaja is facing heavy sell down by shares in Maju Holding.

Both shares price started to fall from end Nov untill today closing. A check from Bursa indicated that all shares are sell down from Kenanga pledged securities accounts for Maju Holding.

Is this a force selling by Kenanga ? Has the force selling completed or more to come ?

IF investor in this 2 counter has cut loss strategy in place, then the losses will be caped at higher price level then now.

Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965

Reference No CU-101213-2D816

Company Name	:	KINSTEEL BHD
Stock Name	:	KINSTEL
Date Announced	:	13/12/2010

Name	:	Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.
Address	:	Level 21, Maju Tower, 1001 Jalan Sultan Ismail, 50250 Kuala Lumpur.
NRIC/Passport No/Company No.	:	40444-V
Nationality/Country of incorporation	:	Malaysia
Descriptions (Class & nominal value)	:	Ordinary Shares of RM0.20 each
Name & address of registered holder	:	Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.)

Details of changes
Currency : Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted ($$)
Disposed	26/11/2010	110,000
Disposed	29/11/2010	384,100
Disposed	30/11/2010	168,000
Disposed	01/12/2010	671,800
Disposed	02/12/2010	436,100
Disposed	03/12/2010	1,850,000
Disposed	06/12/2010	2,440,000
Disposed	08/12/2010	2,283,900
Disposed	09/12/2010	3,110,000

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred	:	Open-market sale.
Nature of interest	:	Direct
Direct (units)	:	176,368,700
Direct (%)	:	18.59
Indirect/deemed interest (units)	:	0
Indirect/deemed interest (%)	:	0
Total no of securities after change	:	176,368,700
Date of notice	:	10/12/2010

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Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965

Reference No PH-101213-52964

Company Name	:	PERWAJA HOLDINGS BERHAD
Stock Name	:	PERWAJA
Date Announced	:	13/12/2010

Name	:	Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.
Address	:	Level 21, Maju Tower 1001 Jalan Sultan Ismail 50250 Kuala Lumpur
NRIC/Passport No/Company No.	:	40444-V
Nationality/Country of incorporation	:	Incorporated in Malaysia
Descriptions (Class & nominal value)	:	Ordinary shares of RM1.00 each
Name & address of registered holder	:	Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. Pledged Securities Account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.

Details of changes
Currency : Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted ($$)
Disposed	02/12/2010	50,000
Disposed	03/12/2010	70,000
Disposed	06/12/2010	127,200
Disposed	08/12/2010	300,000
Disposed	09/12/2010	474,200

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred	:	Open-market sale
Nature of interest	:	Direct
Direct (units)	:	23,978,600
Direct (%)	:	4.282
Indirect/deemed interest (units)	:	365,416,500
Indirect/deemed interest (%)	:	65.253
Total no of securities after change	:	389,395,100
Date of notice	:	10/12/2010
Remarks
1) Notification received on 13 December 2010 2) The direct interest of 23,978,600 shares are held by Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. pledged securities account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd. The indirect interest of 365,416,500 shares comprise of: (a) 209,100,000 shares held by Kinsteel Bhd (b) 30,000 shares held by MH Consultancy Services Sdn. Bhd. (c) 356,500 shares held by Ipmuda Berhad (d) 30,000 shares held by Edaran Maju-Muda Sdn. Bhd. (e) 2,020,000 shares held by Equal Concept Sdn. Bhd. (f) 153,880,000 shares held by Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. pledged securities account for Equal Concept Sdn. Bhd.

Window of Opportunity for Share Speculator

Malaysia is at a very dangerious position now as Najib Govt has opt for BIG SPENDING ON MEGA PROJECTS instead of the Policies Reform on the many structure weakness in our economy policy.

We may see Malaysia GDP improve in next 1 or 2 years, but we risk the Country going bankrupt in year 2020.

The out look for Malaysia Economy will not be good & this short term benefits & Feel Good sentiment is actually an opportunity of window for market speculator. ( from now to next GE)

Series of M&A, Corporate deal in GLC will help to push up market volume & indexes, attract more market participation, retail & institution.

Market timer, trend follower will be the main winner, Long term buy & hold investor will be the loser.

Enjoy the party, make more profits, then don't forget to exit the market when the party end.

Keck Seng : Is Bonus Issue A Bonus ?

After making a huge gain from disposal of Parkway, many investor expect Keck Seng to announce some good news.

Keck Seng finally announce it will giving out bonus issue of 1 to 2 in it's latest announcement.

It's share price has react positively to reach all time high of 6.50 in Wed.

Bonus issue actually is not bonus to investor, it has in fact increase the share base of the company but the market cap is still the same. it has 0 effects on the value of the company.

But i still 'hold' on to Keck Seng, hopefully the real GOOD news will be announce later.

Is Our Retail Investor Coming Back To Stock Market ?

Lately I have met with two different officer in two Investment Bank, one work in OSK, another one work in PBB. They all have claim that the retail investor has coming back to Local Stock market, actively trading shares..

I believe so !

The retail investor will come back after local stock market make good gain for past 2 years. The active market will make the stock market more attractive to them, a good alternative other than FD.

Now the property's price has break record high level & it's difficult to go higher, the fund will definitely divert to stock market.

When the real economy not performing well, usually the businessman will mobilized the extra/idle fund to invest into stock.

SO OUR LOCAL STOCK MARKET, BURSA MALAYSIA SOON WILL BREAK THE 1,500 POINT & MOVE HIGHER. NEVER LOOK BACK.

BUT IF YOU WANT TO GET GOOD RETURNS, THEN 2ND & 3RD LINER WILL BE THE IDEAL COUNTER.

STEEL , Rise with a HOPE (DREAM)

We can see the rotation play in the market,

The Steel Counter has started to move up after Property, Plantation & Contruction Counter has risen.

The reason or excuse for the Steel Counter to move is simple, i.e Steel counter will benefit from all the implementation of the Mega Projects under the 2011 budget.

BUT, JUST BE REALISTIC, NEVER HOPE FOR THE SURGE LIKE YEAR 2008 WHERE THE STEEL PRICE HAS RISEN LIKE ROCKET. THE STEEL PRICE GO UP ALMOST 100% WITHIN 1 YEAR PERIOD.

No more ! The year 2008 event is historic & it happen once in a century, the price surge in 2008 is mainly due to structural problem in supply & demand.

And now the situation is totally different:- 1)the China effects has reduce due to policy shift from export to local consumption and no longer focus on low cost production, 2) The world is over supply in Steel.

I do not see there are big increase in Steel Price, most likely it will be go up or down within a tight range.

BIG PROJECTS, SMALL CAP

Investor always make a mistake, they look at share price, but never try to compute the market cap.

A stock price at 0.20 is not necessary is a small cap company if their share base is big.
A stock price at 0.50 may be a small cap company if their share base is small , let say 300 mil shares. ie the market cap is only 150 mil (0.50 x 300 mil shares.)

Now I am convince that The Najib Govt is spending BIG in Infra Projects.
All 'NEM', 'ETP' is just a slogan, the actual intention is to give out more & more SUPER MEGA PROJECTS.

A small retail investor like me, no need to follow the Fund Manager to go into BIG CAP company.

We can make better returns by go into small cap counter take will benefited from the BIG Projects.

The returns can be easily 50%- 100%.

This is indeed the ADVANTAGE of being small.

My bet: ZELAN, IJM-WC, MALTON, KBUNAI, AZRB