资金投向基建难改制造业困境

郎咸平：政府4万亿投资计划让我很是佩服 应偏向制造业

2008年11月20日 08:19金羊网－新快报【大 中 小】 【打印】

-黎湛钧/摄

寻觅“严冬下的生机”

随着全球金融危机的蔓延，我国实体经济已开始陷入困境。如何在金融危机的冲击中突围？这个问题困扰着我国企业家。

为了解答企业家们心中的疑惑，昨日新快报协同益策(中国)学习机构、暨南大学等单位，邀请到著名经济学家郎咸平在暨南大学开讲。该讲座是“严冬下的生机”系列讲座的第一期。

尽管昨日并非休息日，讲座2800元的收费也堪称不菲，但慕名而来的企业家仍使得能容纳数百人的礼堂人满为患。如何“过冬”，正是企业家当前最关切的话题。

-新快报记者 陈昊旻

“在大萧条即将来临之际。政府出台了4万亿投资计划，其出手之快、力度之大，让我很是佩服。”昨日在暨南大学礼堂由益策(中国)学习管理机构举办的 “中国名师大讲堂”上，一向被认为和官方看法不一致的郎咸平如此评价我国的4万亿投资计划。但和他一贯风格相符的是，他对该计划的实际效果仍然有着自己的 观点。他认为，考虑到此次我国经济危机产生的根源在于制造业的衰退，政府应该将投资方向偏向民营制造业，这样才能让老百姓真正获得利益，从而推动消费，改 变我国当前畸形的经济格局。

资金投向基建难改制造业困境

“我现在担心的是，4万亿投资用在基建上实际上是把钱投向了已经过热的行业，如钢铁、水泥等，而已经过冷的制造业仍然难以获得银行贷款，形势变得更加严峻。”

在全球经济危机冲击下，曾经一片欣欣向荣的我国经济也没能幸免，股市、楼市大幅下跌，众多企业也是难以为继。政府为了挽救经济出台了规模巨大的投资 计划，总投资额达到4万亿。但是该计划明显侧重在公路、港口、电网等基础设施的建设上。对此，郎咸平分析称，4万亿中有1万亿来自地方政府，而财政状况并 不乐观的地方政府必然要发债，承担主体很可能要转移到民营企业上；而银行也要承担两万亿，这两万亿中很大一部分便是来自民营企业的存款。如此挤压之下，让 民营经济层面的资金继续流出，使得我国制造业的资金状况难以得到改观。

郎咸平指出，我国此前一直保持着10%以上的高速增长，但占GDP比重30%左右的过热部门在此期间一直有超过30%的增长速度，也正是这些部门支 撑了我国高增长。而其他部门如制造业却一直保持萧条状态。这意味着，我国维持10%经济增长所付出的代价就是(制造业)企业越来越贫穷，人们越来越没消费 力。按照他的“工商链条理论”，这样最终将导致我国内需持续萎缩，国家经济面临全面萧条。

“政府的目的很明确，就是拯救经济，这一点我也很赞同，但方向不对。”郎咸平认为，继续将资金投向基建的确可以带来靓丽的GDP增长，但如果不能真 正改变制造企业生存的现状，或许仍然会有更多的人面临失业的威胁。“政府在公用事业上的投资的确可以带动一部分就业，但那毕竟是少数，我国90%的就业仍 然是由占经济比重70%的民营经济提供的，这才是需要重点关注的方向。”

郎咸平指出，政府投资很多时候更像是“一锤子买卖”，过几年工程完成了，雇佣的工人仍然面临就业问题，而所修建的基础项目大部分也不是能持续产生效益的项目。另外，根据他的计算，上世纪90年代我国靠投资拉动GDP仍有50%的效率，而现在就只有16.67%。

经济政策应侧重扶持民营企业

实际上，我国经济格局的构成一直受到郎咸平的诟病。他指出，欧美经济均是消费拉动型，消费占其GDP比重高达70%以上，而在我国这个数字却只有区 区的33%不到，正是这个原因使得我国经济体系十分脆弱，严重制约我国经济持续增长。“政府应该放弃盯着GDP增长的经济政策了。”郎咸平说道，“提高企 业利润率、让老百姓口袋里钱多起来，这样才能有效增加社会财富，才能拉动我国消费。”

有学者认为，我国目前推出的各种政策应该能间接的拉动制造业，从而使经济保持良性发展，但郎咸平认为，我国目前的货币政策也好，经济政策也好，都是 按照美国的《宏观经济学》教科书来设计的，和我国的情况并不完全符合。因为美国经济理论的“灵魂”，或者说立足点，是建立在以民营经济为主的“一元经济” 模式之上，其政策的确能使民营经济直接获利。但在我国，由于政府部门和国企占有了大部分的资源，大规模的投资计划以及银根的放松都只能对它们产生利好，民 营经济反而会更加倒退。

在场的企业家对他的说法表示了赞同。企业家告诉记者，就以银根放松为例，目前最有钱的是银行，但是民营企业很难从中贷款，因为目前的形势下没有银行 愿意承担这样的放贷风险，而如果是政府部门要贷款，其难度必然会大大降低；至于当前出台的4万亿投资计划，民营企业也很难真正参与其中。

“中小企业肯定是分不到这块蛋糕的。”郎咸平如此表示。因此，他呼吁政府能更重视民营企业，将经济政策更侧重在扶持民营企业上。他认为，如果是投资 到制造业，受益的企业产生的效益将用以再投资、再生产，从而产生更多的效益和提供更多的工作岗位，形成一个“滚雪球”般的良性循环。

拯救制造业必须从经营模式下手

一直以来，我国都以“制造业大国”自居。但郎咸平指出，我国掌握的只是整个产业链中价值最低的一环。而随着国际化的推进，国际竞争已经从产品、企业的层面上升到了产业链地位的层面。像中国这种在产业链中处于低端的国家，得到了GDP,却没有得到任何利润。

对此，郎教授举出了他著名的“芭比娃娃例子”：“我以芭比娃娃为例，我们广东东莞所生产的芭比娃娃卖到美国价格是一美元，这样的价格目前基本上是零 利润的，如果不是负利润的话。那它在美国的零售价是多少呢？9.9美元。这多出来的9美元就是美国企业的灵魂，它透过6大块所创造出来，包括产品设计、原 料采购、仓储运输、定单处理、批发经营、终端零售，而其利润率达到惊人的40%。这6大块加上中国这一块的制造，这个叫做‘6+1’的流程，就是产业链。 按照这样的方式计算，我们辛辛苦苦创造出1亿元美元的产值，却同时替美国创造出9亿美元的产值，其中还包含3.6亿美元的利润。”

也有人提出疑问，在汇率波动、成本上升等背景下，我国制造业为何不提价应对。对此种说法，郎咸平认为十分“可笑”，因为身处产业链最低端的制造业，本身是没有定价权的。因此，要拯救危急的制造业，必须从其经营模式上下手。

“国家经济增长点并不是企业利润，这样怎么可能提高企业盈利？怎么提高人民收入？怎么拉动消费？GDP增长有10%，但是你们告诉我，哪个民营企业扣除了通胀因素后的利润增长能到10%？”现场数百名企业家无一应声。

Interview with Malaysia's Central Bank Governor

How is the real economy faring?

Excerpts from the interview with Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz on issues surrounding the domestic and international economy. Yap Leng Kuen, Jagdev Singh Sidhu and P. Gunasegaram interviewed her.

Bizweek: Do you expect the 3.5% growth next year to be achievable?

Yes.

What do you think will threaten the forecast?

An external environment that is beyond what we have already priced in, that is half the world in a recession.

If the recession becomes a depression, with high rates of unemployment and severe economic contraction, then of course, this will have repercussions even for Asia.

When do we see a recovery?

Warren Buffet got it right. It will take about 18 months. When we implemented the resolution to restructure our banking sector during the (1997) crisis, banks started lending again six months after the implementation of Pengurusan Danaharta Bhd, Danamodal Nasional Bhd and the Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee, together with other measures.

So the first indicator is when banks start lending again. The confidence has to return for the recovery to take place.

Crisis – past & present

If we were to compare the current economic condition to that of the previous crisis, how bad is it for Malaysia and globally?

We need to separate the two. We are not in a recession and we don’t expect to be in one.

Half the world will likely be in a recession. We are the other part that expects to still see growth because there are real economic activities happening.

You have to make a distinction between the stage of the crisis. In our case, we took action very early so there is the potential for containing the severity of the crisis.

In the case of the US, the action was taken too late and as a result, the crisis will have to run its full course.

What this means is the prices, mostly asset prices, will have to adjust before they reach their lows. The slower they adjust, the more prolonged it will be. It will likely take 18 months from the time they implement all their measures and that will take us into 2010.

Do you see unemployment in Malaysia rising?

It will rise but not significantly. The measures that are being put in place are promoting job creation and the education system to retrain and re-absorb.

The financial services sector is not contracting. In fact, it is expanding. There are job opportunities and there are still many vacancies in many organisations.

This is a time the workforce needs to be redeployed to the areas where there are opportunities. People may not get the jobs they want to have but during this kind of period, they have to take on jobs where there are vacancies.

Do you foresee the ringgit going back to the level of RM3.80/US dollar?

It would not reflect our underlying fundamentals. Currently, it reflects short-term flows. In the near term, we are going to see volatility but the medium-term underlying trend should be a gradual appreciation.

What is the comfortable level for the ringgit?

We don’t have a level that we are looking at. The International Monetary Fund continues to tell us that our ringgit is undervalued.

We said as a central bank, we never stood in the way of an underlying trend for the currency and in fact, it appreciated quite sharply to RM3.15. We didn’t stand in the way. Now, it has depreciated.

And we noticed when our currency appreciated, there was no representation to the central bank that this is too fast or putting us in difficulty.

Now, the currency has depreciated and importers will be affected. But again, there have been no remarks.

What is key to us is that the market remains orderly. The central bank will be there to ensure orderly conditions.

Over the long term, don’t you think the Asian currencies will have to strengthen as an overall adjustment?

I don’t think Asia determines the exchange rate of major currencies. The point that I want to emphasise is we don’t just look at one currency anymore. We should not just look at our link to the US dollar.

We should look at all the other currencies. Against the sterling, we have appreciated significantly. Against the euro, we have appreciated by a lesser amount and against the Aussie, quite a lot of people are quite happy.

Asia does not determine the currencies. (it is) the financial flows... that is why we have heightened our surveillance of the financial system. Asian countries have been responsible in the way they manage their reserves.

In the case of Malaysia, we had diversified our portfolio seven or eight years ago. This is important because of the high volatility of all the currencies.

People say interest rates should be reduced. Where do you see the interest rates heading?

We have said that we would take swift action to support the economy. If it is necessary, certainly, we have the flexibility to do so.

Do you think we need to bring the budget deficit under control?

In good times, every effort should be made to bring it under control. But under these challenging times, it is important to provide support to the economy to prevent a sharp economic downturn.

Yes, some of the issues need to be addressed like enhancing the revenue base. But this can be done during better times like having value-added tax.

There are other fiscal issues that need to be addressed and will be taken up when we have increased economic conditions.

The key is fiscal sustainability which should be assessed in terms of the indebtedness of the Government and right now, that is low. That does give some flexibility despite the deficit being higher.

There is so much reliance on the consumer to drive economic growth. Won’t the recession in the US and about half of the world discourage the consumer from fulfilling the task?

The external sector has become affected as a result of the depressed global demand. While there has been some disruption, the underlying real activity still remains in our economy.

There are various industries that meet consumer demand and our own investment projects have been implemented.

One needs to understand the situation and manage it from household to businesses.

I have full confidence as we had managed ourselves out of the severe crisis in 1997/98 and came out of it so quickly.

What we are facing now is nothing compared with that. We have the capacity, aptitude and drive to bring ourselves out of it at a very low cost to the country.

The biggest factor is one of confidence. It is not that Malaysians don’t have the money but suddenly, most are pulling back. What do you do in a situation like that?

They should know the consequences that they will contribute to the slowdown, and this will become self-fulfilling.

We need to be prudent, manage ourselves well.

It is during the good times that we need to moderate ourselves and avoid excesses, so that in bad times, we can pull ourselves through.

People should live within their means. The environment now varies from the 1990s and 1980s. Everyone needs to have an awareness of the business environment, how to survive and manage themselves.

If you talk to those savvy businesses, they know how to cut costs and what business to prepare for.

Are consumers saying they are in a recession?

We are not in a recession but should brace ourselves for the worst. We are going to be plagued by this kind of crisis from time to time, and we cannot prevent this from happening. We have to raise our resilience and tolerance level to ensure that we can manage ourselves in such circumstances.

I believe that in our banking sector, they are able to, within the circumstances, manage themselves.

How do you see the inflation numbers?

We believe it has peaked. It will moderate into the early part of next year, and moderate significantly into the second half of next year to less than 3%.

Do you expect commodity prices to remain low?

It depends on the global economy, and depth of recession to be experienced in some major economies. The two factors that resulted in our inflation rising to 7% to 8% was rising food and fuel prices.

These have come down. We expect inflation to moderate.

About 80% of the increase was due to these two items.

The supply and distribution of food have improved and of course, fuel is determined by international forces.

What is the level of household debt in Malaysia?

It remains under prudential levels and has not increased. It is generally borrowing within the household’s means and of course, we have exceptions, and these are candidates for the credit counselling agency, AKPK.

We have opened AKPK branches. It is a positive development that people come forward to speak about their financial difficulties and the AKPK arranges for the borrowers and banks to engage and look at options of ensuring the loans continue to be performing.

We also reinforce that by raising the level of financial awareness through advertising.

金沙（金沙）陷入財困

美金沙告急 澳門受累 負債702億 路氹發展項目恐暫緩

(明報)11月7日 星期五 05:05

【明報專訊】全球最大的博彩及娛樂集團、美國 上市公司拉斯維加斯 金 沙（金沙）陷入財困，該公司在提交給美國監管機構的文件中透露，核數師估計由於公司負債過高，以致違反了某些債務合約定下有關負債比率上限的規定，若未能 成功集資，會觸發該公司大量債務連環違約，可被債權人催繳還款，令人「懷疑公司能否持續經營」。金沙表示，可能要暫緩包括澳門 在內的多項龐大發展項目。金沙昨晚在美國的股價一開市便急挫22％，跌至每股9.15美元 ，過去一年其股價已較最高峰暴跌了94％。

澳門金沙沒收消息 照常營業

澳門金沙賭場發言人昨晚深夜表示，未收到任何涉及母公司財困的消息，澳門金沙賭場仍然照常營業。澳門職工聯盟理事長何興國亦表示，未收到金沙賭場出現財困的消息。不過，在澳門網上討論區，已有一些網民流傳對金沙財政表示憂慮的消息，但留言並無提供具體證據。

按照昨日金沙向美國證監機構提交的文件，截至2007年底，金沙的負債高達90億美元（約702億港元）。由於一些債項金沙與債權人定下了借貸條 款，要求淨負債對收入比率不能過高，但金沙核數師昨日指出，金沙預料到了今年第四季年結時，將無法符合有關規定，將導致公司違約，屆時債權人有權要求公司 提早還款。另外，公司亦可能被迫停止旗下的發展項目，以致令人「懷疑公司能否持續經營」（raises substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern）。

研新融資計劃

金沙表示，正與財務顧問研究，希望可以有新的融資計劃，公司又表示，如果未能成功籌集資金，將尋求與債權人修訂貸款條款，申請豁免暫緩遵守。

金沙是全球發展賭博業最進取的博彩公司，該公司在美國、澳門、新加坡 都 有龐大的新賭場在發展中。「彭博資訊」估計，發展中項目的總投資額約1326億元。有資料顯示，澳門方面的投資還要投下390億元。然而，在金融海嘯下， 全球信貸收緊，金沙勢難取得銀行大額融資。此外，近月隨着中央收緊內地人到賭場旅遊的規定，澳門賭場的生意早已一落千丈。

由於難以集資，金沙大股東艾德森上月要自己斥資37億元，向金沙注資。另外，有報道指出，金沙正與花旗集團 等銀行洽商，以尋求409.2億元銀團貸款，用作償還債務，以及作為澳門路氹金光大道項目的發展資金。評級機構穆迪投資上月曾把金沙的長期債務評級降低3級，標普則把其評級降低1級至B+。

為了解決財困，金沙早前曾公布會出售部分物業套現，包括考慮出售澳門四季酒店 的部分業權

A flock that grows a-weary

SHARING THE NATION

By ZAINAH ANWAR

The way to deal with the grievances and injustices over the years which have resulted in open and ugly contestations is not to silence the debate but to sit together and find solutions.

WHY is there an obstinate obsession to regulate Muslims in every aspect of our lives: What we do, what we say, how we dress, where we go, who we hang out with, how we celebrate our festivals and the festivals of others, and now how we maintain our health and well-being?

Yet another fatwa to regulate our lives is about to be issued, this time on the practice of yoga.

I take yoga classes. It makes me feel calm and flexible and teaches me to breathe efficiently. Most importantly, it keeps away my lower back pain. I feel good after every yoga class.

Now this source of my well-being is about to be declared haram. Should l consider joining my neighbours in their daily morning qigong exercise at the playground? But I bet qigong will probably be next on the ever-expanding list of the forbidden for Muslims.

I know so many Muslims who do these exercises to keep healthy because of ill-health and stressful living. Many cancer survivors and heart patients find yoga and qigong essential to their healing process. The breathing, meditation and physical exercises in yoga all have scientifically proven health benefits.

Hanging in the balance: Many Muslims practise yoga to keep healthy because of ill health and stressful living.

And I know Muslims who say practising yoga has enhanced the depth of their daily prayers. And yet, there are those who speak in the name of Islam, who have not done a minute of yoga in their lives who claim to know the destructive effects of this exercise. And in order to save our souls lest we deviate from the straight path, they tell us yoga is haram.

Little do they realise that it is they who are turning Muslims and people of other faiths away from Islam with their intolerance, ignorance and extremism.

For many Muslims, the warning that Islam is constantly under threat is getting to be very tiring. Who are the enemies of the religion? Are they real or largely imagined? Why the grim determination to focus on an Islam that punishes, hates and fears others?

Recent events confirm this. The first Muslim woman Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi was banned from giving public lectures in the country. Then came the fatwa on tomboys. Now yoga is likely to be the next victim. It would seem as if those in authority are determined to damage our image as a country of moderate Muslims.

How odd this all seems. While one arm of government sells Malaysia abroad as a Muslim country that is progressive, democratic, peaceful, stable and respectful of all cultures and religions, other arms of that same government seem bent on undermining that message.

For those who support the Opposition in the belief that Pakatan Rakyat stands for liberation and moderation, Zulkifli Noordin’s outburst in the Dewan Rakyat on Oct 23 and his subsequent interview with Mingguan Malaysia were shocking and chilling at the same time.

Some bloggers are begging Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to sack the MP and let him join Umno, while others think Umno deliberately withdrew an election petition to declare the Kulim Bandar Baru result null and void, knowing that Zulkifli would be a liability to the PR image-building exercise.

Set mindset

Zulkifli declares himself puzzled why Muslims are not supporting him. He does not understand why Khalid Samad, the MP for Shah Alam and a fellow Muslim, criticised his speech in Parliament. He accused Khalid of prioritising party interest above Islam.

Zulkifli regards any challenge to anything he deems Islamic as an attack on the religion. In his eyes, the debate on issues such as freedom of religion, conversions to Islam, road signs in Arabic, the use of the word Allah by non-Muslims, the appointment of non-Muslims to positions traditionally held by Muslims and the controversy involving loudspeakers to amplify sermons from mosques are systematic attacks on Islam from “the left, right, above, below, behind or in front”.

He sees young Muslims who believe in human rights as a danger to the race and religion as these ideas conflict with Islam, and he urges the authorities to take immediate action to stop the dangers posed by these young, educated, liberal Muslims.

As another law professor from the Inter­national Islamic University said in an interview a few weeks ago, these young Muslims are poisoning the minds of other Muslims and they must be stopped!

What is most distressing is that Zulkifli and those like him are trying to wipe out the diversity and differences of opinion endorsed, advocated and studied by generations of enlightened Islamic scholars.

Ikhtilaf (diversity) is a recurring theme in the Quran and widely recognised in Islamic tradition as a natural phenomenon. Have we forgotten the Quranic verse in which God says “we have created you into nations and tribes for you to know each other”, not hate each other?

Or the Hadith that says diversity is a blessing to the community? Why the different sects and the different schools of theology and law in the Islamic tradition? It is precisely because of this diversity in interpretation, juristic opinion and recognition of diverse local practices that Islam has spread to all corners of the world. Every culture, every tradition has been able to accommodate and celebrate the universal message of Islam.

And yet those who claim to be the experts in Islam deny this rich and complex heritage of Muslim scholarship, history and practice. Instead, using their authority, they interpret the authoritative text to impose authoritarianism on those who do not share their narrow understanding of the faith. To them, there can only be one way of knowing Islam and one way of being Muslim.

It is this mindset that inspires the Malay­sian religious authorities to issue one fatwa after another to regulate what Muslims can do and cannot do, what they can think and cannot think, and what they can read and cannot read.

Banning the works of Karen Armstrong and John Esposito, two Western writers most sympathetic to Islam, only exposes the politics behind that decision. I have not met anyone who has read the writings of these two authors and felt their faith undermined. In fact, it is the writings of fair-minded Chris­tians like them that has brought a kinder, gentler face of Islam to many young Western-educated Muslims and non-Muslims all over the world fed on a diet of the punitive Islam of the traditionalist ulama, and the fire and brimstone Islam of political Islamists.

So, let’s be honest here: Is it Islam that needs to be protected as they so claim, or is it Muslims pushing the Islamic state and supremacy of Islamic law ideology who command that their ideology be protected from any challenges posed by those who disagree with them?

When Zulkifli declared, “I am a Muslim first, party member second; I am a Muslim first, a lawyer second; I am a Muslim first, an MP second, I am a Muslim first, everything else is second,” some obvious questions come to mind. What does being a Muslim mean? Is it not possible to be a good Muslim and still be a good lawyer, a good MP, a good human being?

More disturbingly, could he be saying that being Muslim means being divorced from the real world? This is actually a very secular notion that the likes of Zulkifli abhor.

Does a judge who declares he is a Muslim first, a judge second get the licence to violate the Federal Constitution and the rule of law which he swore to uphold in office because he deems them contradictory to his religious beliefs?

Does a lawyer who declares he is a Muslim first, a lawyer second have the right to condemn another lawyer for defending a client’s interest and his right to exercise his freedom of religion as guaranteed under the Federal Constitution?

Can a doctor who declares he is a Muslim first, a doctor second break his professional oath to save lives and do his best for his patients by refusing to save the life of a Muslim in a drink-driving accident?

Flying the flag of Islam does not give anyone the prerogative to think that he or she can become the walking embodiment of Islam. No one knows what God knows. If we accept this — and certainly as Muslims we must — why then should we bow to anyone who claims that he or she knows with certainty the will of God?

In the Islamic tradition, the arrogance of these supremacists is regarded as takbur — considering oneself superior to others. Although the ulama warns us against this, the attitude is prevalent in the Muslim community. It underpins all practices and systems of oppression and discrimination in this world.

It is sad how Islam is instrumentalised today as if it is nothing more than a label. Stick the Islam label on any and every issue and it becomes untouchable, even sacrosanct. No one is to question or to debate it except the experts.

Yet, it is the failure of these so-called experts and those in authority to deal with all these grievances and injustices over the years that we now see open and ugly contestations that have also impacted race relations in this country. The answer is not to silence the debate. The answer is to sit together and find solutions.

We say we are Muslims first, everything else second; we wear our Islam proudly on our sleeves and we put the religion on a pedestal to make it unchanging and unmoving. At the same time, we employ unkind words and practise unkind deeds, especially towards those who think and act differently from us. Without reflection or compassion, we declare that difference is wrong. Is this not a betrayal of what is truly Islamic?