Thursday, November 20, 2008

资金投向基建难改制造业困境

郎咸平:政府4万亿投资计划让我很是佩服 应偏向制造业
2008年11月20日 08:19金羊网-新快报 】 【打印

-黎湛钧/摄

寻觅“严冬下的生机”

随着全球金融危机的蔓延,我国实体经济已开始陷入困境。如何在金融危机的冲击中突围?这个问题困扰着我国企业家。

为了解答企业家们心中的疑惑,昨日新快报协同益策(中国)学习机构、暨南大学等单位,邀请到著名经济学家郎咸平在暨南大学开讲。该讲座是“严冬下的生机”系列讲座的第一期。

尽管昨日并非休息日,讲座2800元的收费也堪称不菲,但慕名而来的企业家仍使得能容纳数百人的礼堂人满为患。如何“过冬”,正是企业家当前最关切的话题。

-新快报记者 陈昊旻

“在大萧条即将来临之际。政府出台了4万亿投资计划,其出手之快、力度之大,让我很是佩服。”昨日在暨南大学礼堂由益策(中国)学习管理机构举办的 “中国名师大讲堂”上,一向被认为和官方看法不一致的郎咸平如此评价我国的4万亿投资计划。但和他一贯风格相符的是,他对该计划的实际效果仍然有着自己的 观点。他认为,考虑到此次我国经济危机产生的根源在于制造业的衰退,政府应该将投资方向偏向民营制造业,这样才能让老百姓真正获得利益,从而推动消费,改 变我国当前畸形的经济格局。

资金投向基建难改制造业困境

“我现在担心的是,4万亿投资用在基建上实际上是把钱投向了已经过热的行业,如钢铁、水泥等,而已经过冷的制造业仍然难以获得银行贷款,形势变得更加严峻。”

在全球经济危机冲击下,曾经一片欣欣向荣的我国经济也没能幸免,股市、楼市大幅下跌,众多企业也是难以为继。政府为了挽救经济出台了规模巨大的投资 计划,总投资额达到4万亿。但是该计划明显侧重在公路、港口、电网等基础设施的建设上。对此,郎咸平分析称,4万亿中有1万亿来自地方政府,而财政状况并 不乐观的地方政府必然要发债,承担主体很可能要转移到民营企业上;而银行也要承担两万亿,这两万亿中很大一部分便是来自民营企业的存款。如此挤压之下,让 民营经济层面的资金继续流出,使得我国制造业的资金状况难以得到改观。

郎咸平指出,我国此前一直保持着10%以上的高速增长,但占GDP比重30%左右的过热部门在此期间一直有超过30%的增长速度,也正是这些部门支 撑了我国高增长。而其他部门如制造业却一直保持萧条状态。这意味着,我国维持10%经济增长所付出的代价就是(制造业)企业越来越贫穷,人们越来越没消费 力。按照他的“工商链条理论”,这样最终将导致我国内需持续萎缩,国家经济面临全面萧条。

“政府的目的很明确,就是拯救经济,这一点我也很赞同,但方向不对。”郎咸平认为,继续将资金投向基建的确可以带来靓丽的GDP增长,但如果不能真 正改变制造企业生存的现状,或许仍然会有更多的人面临失业的威胁。“政府在公用事业上的投资的确可以带动一部分就业,但那毕竟是少数,我国90%的就业仍 然是由占经济比重70%的民营经济提供的,这才是需要重点关注的方向。”

郎咸平指出,政府投资很多时候更像是“一锤子买卖”,过几年工程完成了,雇佣的工人仍然面临就业问题,而所修建的基础项目大部分也不是能持续产生效益的项目。另外,根据他的计算,上世纪90年代我国靠投资拉动GDP仍有50%的效率,而现在就只有16.67%。

经济政策应侧重扶持民营企业

实际上,我国经济格局的构成一直受到郎咸平的诟病。他指出,欧美经济均是消费拉动型,消费占其GDP比重高达70%以上,而在我国这个数字却只有区 区的33%不到,正是这个原因使得我国经济体系十分脆弱,严重制约我国经济持续增长。“政府应该放弃盯着GDP增长的经济政策了。”郎咸平说道,“提高企 业利润率、让老百姓口袋里钱多起来,这样才能有效增加社会财富,才能拉动我国消费。”

有学者认为,我国目前推出的各种政策应该能间接的拉动制造业,从而使经济保持良性发展,但郎咸平认为,我国目前的货币政策也好,经济政策也好,都是 按照美国的《宏观经济学》教科书来设计的,和我国的情况并不完全符合。因为美国经济理论的“灵魂”,或者说立足点,是建立在以民营经济为主的“一元经济” 模式之上,其政策的确能使民营经济直接获利。但在我国,由于政府部门和国企占有了大部分的资源,大规模的投资计划以及银根的放松都只能对它们产生利好,民 营经济反而会更加倒退。

在场的企业家对他的说法表示了赞同。企业家告诉记者,就以银根放松为例,目前最有钱的是银行,但是民营企业很难从中贷款,因为目前的形势下没有银行 愿意承担这样的放贷风险,而如果是政府部门要贷款,其难度必然会大大降低;至于当前出台的4万亿投资计划,民营企业也很难真正参与其中。

“中小企业肯定是分不到这块蛋糕的。”郎咸平如此表示。因此,他呼吁政府能更重视民营企业,将经济政策更侧重在扶持民营企业上。他认为,如果是投资 到制造业,受益的企业产生的效益将用以再投资、再生产,从而产生更多的效益和提供更多的工作岗位,形成一个“滚雪球”般的良性循环。

拯救制造业必须从经营模式下手

一直以来,我国都以“制造业大国”自居。但郎咸平指出,我国掌握的只是整个产业链中价值最低的一环。而随着国际化的推进,国际竞争已经从产品、企业的层面上升到了产业链地位的层面。像中国这种在产业链中处于低端的国家,得到了GDP,却没有得到任何利润。

对此,郎教授举出了他著名的“芭比娃娃例子”:“我以芭比娃娃为例,我们广东东莞所生产的芭比娃娃卖到美国价格是一美元,这样的价格目前基本上是零 利润的,如果不是负利润的话。那它在美国的零售价是多少呢?9.9美元。这多出来的9美元就是美国企业的灵魂,它透过6大块所创造出来,包括产品设计、原 料采购、仓储运输、定单处理、批发经营、终端零售,而其利润率达到惊人的40%。这6大块加上中国这一块的制造,这个叫做‘6+1’的流程,就是产业链。 按照这样的方式计算,我们辛辛苦苦创造出1亿元美元的产值,却同时替美国创造出9亿美元的产值,其中还包含3.6亿美元的利润。”

也有人提出疑问,在汇率波动、成本上升等背景下,我国制造业为何不提价应对。对此种说法,郎咸平认为十分“可笑”,因为身处产业链最低端的制造业,本身是没有定价权的。因此,要拯救危急的制造业,必须从其经营模式上下手。

“国家经济增长点并不是企业利润,这样怎么可能提高企业盈利?怎么提高人民收入?怎么拉动消费?GDP增长有10%,但是你们告诉我,哪个民营企业扣除了通胀因素后的利润增长能到10%?”现场数百名企业家无一应声。

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Interview with Malaysia's Central Bank Governor

How is the real economy faring?


Excerpts from the interview with Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz on issues surrounding the domestic and international economy. Yap Leng Kuen, Jagdev Singh Sidhu and P. Gunasegaram interviewed her.

Bizweek: Do you expect the 3.5% growth next year to be achievable?

Yes.

What do you think will threaten the forecast?

An external environment that is beyond what we have already priced in, that is half the world in a recession.

If the recession becomes a depression, with high rates of unemployment and severe economic contraction, then of course, this will have repercussions even for Asia.

When do we see a recovery?

Warren Buffet got it right. It will take about 18 months. When we implemented the resolution to restructure our banking sector during the (1997) crisis, banks started lending again six months after the implementation of Pengurusan Danaharta Bhd, Danamodal Nasional Bhd and the Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee, together with other measures.

So the first indicator is when banks start lending again. The confidence has to return for the recovery to take place.

Crisis – past & present

If we were to compare the current economic condition to that of the previous crisis, how bad is it for Malaysia and globally?

We need to separate the two. We are not in a recession and we don’t expect to be in one.

Half the world will likely be in a recession. We are the other part that expects to still see growth because there are real economic activities happening.

You have to make a distinction between the stage of the crisis. In our case, we took action very early so there is the potential for containing the severity of the crisis.

In the case of the US, the action was taken too late and as a result, the crisis will have to run its full course.

What this means is the prices, mostly asset prices, will have to adjust before they reach their lows. The slower they adjust, the more prolonged it will be. It will likely take 18 months from the time they implement all their measures and that will take us into 2010.

Do you see unemployment in Malaysia rising?

It will rise but not significantly. The measures that are being put in place are promoting job creation and the education system to retrain and re-absorb.

The financial services sector is not contracting. In fact, it is expanding. There are job opportunities and there are still many vacancies in many organisations.

This is a time the workforce needs to be redeployed to the areas where there are opportunities. People may not get the jobs they want to have but during this kind of period, they have to take on jobs where there are vacancies.

Do you foresee the ringgit going back to the level of RM3.80/US dollar?

It would not reflect our underlying fundamentals. Currently, it reflects short-term flows. In the near term, we are going to see volatility but the medium-term underlying trend should be a gradual appreciation.

What is the comfortable level for the ringgit?

We don’t have a level that we are looking at. The International Monetary Fund continues to tell us that our ringgit is undervalued.

We said as a central bank, we never stood in the way of an underlying trend for the currency and in fact, it appreciated quite sharply to RM3.15. We didn’t stand in the way. Now, it has depreciated.

And we noticed when our currency appreciated, there was no representation to the central bank that this is too fast or putting us in difficulty.

Now, the currency has depreciated and importers will be affected. But again, there have been no remarks.

What is key to us is that the market remains orderly. The central bank will be there to ensure orderly conditions.

Over the long term, don’t you think the Asian currencies will have to strengthen as an overall adjustment?

I don’t think Asia determines the exchange rate of major currencies. The point that I want to emphasise is we don’t just look at one currency anymore. We should not just look at our link to the US dollar.

We should look at all the other currencies. Against the sterling, we have appreciated significantly. Against the euro, we have appreciated by a lesser amount and against the Aussie, quite a lot of people are quite happy.

Asia does not determine the currencies. (it is) the financial flows... that is why we have heightened our surveillance of the financial system. Asian countries have been responsible in the way they manage their reserves.

In the case of Malaysia, we had diversified our portfolio seven or eight years ago. This is important because of the high volatility of all the currencies.

People say interest rates should be reduced. Where do you see the interest rates heading?

We have said that we would take swift action to support the economy. If it is necessary, certainly, we have the flexibility to do so.

Do you think we need to bring the budget deficit under control?

In good times, every effort should be made to bring it under control. But under these challenging times, it is important to provide support to the economy to prevent a sharp economic downturn.

Yes, some of the issues need to be addressed like enhancing the revenue base. But this can be done during better times like having value-added tax.

There are other fiscal issues that need to be addressed and will be taken up when we have increased economic conditions.

The key is fiscal sustainability which should be assessed in terms of the indebtedness of the Government and right now, that is low. That does give some flexibility despite the deficit being higher.

There is so much reliance on the consumer to drive economic growth. Won’t the recession in the US and about half of the world discourage the consumer from fulfilling the task?

The external sector has become affected as a result of the depressed global demand. While there has been some disruption, the underlying real activity still remains in our economy.

There are various industries that meet consumer demand and our own investment projects have been implemented.

One needs to understand the situation and manage it from household to businesses.

I have full confidence as we had managed ourselves out of the severe crisis in 1997/98 and came out of it so quickly.

What we are facing now is nothing compared with that. We have the capacity, aptitude and drive to bring ourselves out of it at a very low cost to the country.

The biggest factor is one of confidence. It is not that Malaysians don’t have the money but suddenly, most are pulling back. What do you do in a situation like that?

They should know the consequences that they will contribute to the slowdown, and this will become self-fulfilling.

We need to be prudent, manage ourselves well.

It is during the good times that we need to moderate ourselves and avoid excesses, so that in bad times, we can pull ourselves through.

People should live within their means. The environment now varies from the 1990s and 1980s. Everyone needs to have an awareness of the business environment, how to survive and manage themselves.

If you talk to those savvy businesses, they know how to cut costs and what business to prepare for.

Are consumers saying they are in a recession?

We are not in a recession but should brace ourselves for the worst. We are going to be plagued by this kind of crisis from time to time, and we cannot prevent this from happening. We have to raise our resilience and tolerance level to ensure that we can manage ourselves in such circumstances.

I believe that in our banking sector, they are able to, within the circumstances, manage themselves.

How do you see the inflation numbers?

We believe it has peaked. It will moderate into the early part of next year, and moderate significantly into the second half of next year to less than 3%.

Do you expect commodity prices to remain low?

It depends on the global economy, and depth of recession to be experienced in some major economies. The two factors that resulted in our inflation rising to 7% to 8% was rising food and fuel prices.

These have come down. We expect inflation to moderate.

About 80% of the increase was due to these two items.

The supply and distribution of food have improved and of course, fuel is determined by international forces.

What is the level of household debt in Malaysia?

It remains under prudential levels and has not increased. It is generally borrowing within the household’s means and of course, we have exceptions, and these are candidates for the credit counselling agency, AKPK.

We have opened AKPK branches. It is a positive development that people come forward to speak about their financial difficulties and the AKPK arranges for the borrowers and banks to engage and look at options of ensuring the loans continue to be performing.

We also reinforce that by raising the level of financial awareness through advertising.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

金沙(金沙)陷入財困

美金沙告急 澳門受累 負債702億 路氹發展項目恐暫緩

(明報)11月7日 星期五 05:05

【明報專訊】全球最大的博彩及娛樂集團、美國 上市公司拉斯維加斯 金 沙(金沙)陷入財困,該公司在提交給美國監管機構的文件中透露,核數師估計由於公司負債過高,以致違反了某些債務合約定下有關負債比率上限的規定,若未能 成功集資,會觸發該公司大量債務連環違約,可被債權人催繳還款,令人「懷疑公司能否持續經營」。金沙表示,可能要暫緩包括澳門 在內的多項龐大發展項目。金沙昨晚在美國的股價一開市便急挫22%,跌至每股9.15美元 ,過去一年其股價已較最高峰暴跌了94%。

澳門金沙沒收消息 照常營業

澳門金沙賭場發言人昨晚深夜表示,未收到任何涉及母公司財困的消息,澳門金沙賭場仍然照常營業。澳門職工聯盟理事長何興國亦表示,未收到金沙賭場出現財困的消息。不過,在澳門網上討論區,已有一些網民流傳對金沙財政表示憂慮的消息,但留言並無提供具體證據。

按照昨日金沙向美國證監機構提交的文件,截至2007年底,金沙的負債高達90億美元(約702億港元)。由於一些債項金沙與債權人定下了借貸條 款,要求淨負債對收入比率不能過高,但金沙核數師昨日指出,金沙預料到了今年第四季年結時,將無法符合有關規定,將導致公司違約,屆時債權人有權要求公司 提早還款。另外,公司亦可能被迫停止旗下的發展項目,以致令人「懷疑公司能否持續經營」(raises substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern)。

研新融資計劃

金沙表示,正與財務顧問研究,希望可以有新的融資計劃,公司又表示,如果未能成功籌集資金,將尋求與債權人修訂貸款條款,申請豁免暫緩遵守。

金沙是全球發展賭博業最進取的博彩公司,該公司在美國、澳門、新加坡 都 有龐大的新賭場在發展中。「彭博資訊」估計,發展中項目的總投資額約1326億元。有資料顯示,澳門方面的投資還要投下390億元。然而,在金融海嘯下, 全球信貸收緊,金沙勢難取得銀行大額融資。此外,近月隨着中央收緊內地人到賭場旅遊的規定,澳門賭場的生意早已一落千丈。

由於難以集資,金沙大股東艾德森上月要自己斥資37億元,向金沙注資。另外,有報道指出,金沙正與花旗集團 等銀行洽商,以尋求409.2億元銀團貸款,用作償還債務,以及作為澳門路氹金光大道項目的發展資金。評級機構穆迪投資上月曾把金沙的長期債務評級降低3級,標普則把其評級降低1級至B+。

為了解決財困,金沙早前曾公布會出售部分物業套現,包括考慮出售澳門四季酒店 的部分業權

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

A flock that grows a-weary

SHARING THE NATION

By ZAINAH ANWAR


The way to deal with the grievances and injustices over the years which have resulted in open and ugly contestations is not to silence the debate but to sit together and find solutions.

WHY is there an obstinate obsession to regulate Muslims in every aspect of our lives: What we do, what we say, how we dress, where we go, who we hang out with, how we celebrate our festivals and the festivals of others, and now how we maintain our health and well-being?

Yet another fatwa to regulate our lives is about to be issued, this time on the practice of yoga.

I take yoga classes. It makes me feel calm and flexible and teaches me to breathe efficiently. Most importantly, it keeps away my lower back pain. I feel good after every yoga class.

Now this source of my well-being is about to be declared haram. Should l consider joining my neighbours in their daily morning qigong exercise at the playground? But I bet qigong will probably be next on the ever-expanding list of the forbidden for Muslims.

I know so many Muslims who do these exercises to keep healthy because of ill-health and stressful living. Many cancer survivors and heart patients find yoga and qigong essential to their healing process. The breathing, meditation and physical exercises in yoga all have scientifically proven health benefits.

Hanging in the balance: Many Muslims practise yoga to keep healthy because of ill health and stressful living.

And I know Muslims who say practising yoga has enhanced the depth of their daily prayers. And yet, there are those who speak in the name of Islam, who have not done a minute of yoga in their lives who claim to know the destructive effects of this exercise. And in order to save our souls lest we deviate from the straight path, they tell us yoga is haram.

Little do they realise that it is they who are turning Muslims and people of other faiths away from Islam with their intolerance, ignorance and extremism.

For many Muslims, the warning that Islam is constantly under threat is getting to be very tiring. Who are the enemies of the religion? Are they real or largely imagined? Why the grim determination to focus on an Islam that punishes, hates and fears others?

Recent events confirm this. The first Muslim woman Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi was banned from giving public lectures in the country. Then came the fatwa on tomboys. Now yoga is likely to be the next victim. It would seem as if those in authority are determined to damage our image as a country of moderate Muslims.

How odd this all seems. While one arm of government sells Malaysia abroad as a Muslim country that is progressive, democratic, peaceful, stable and respectful of all cultures and religions, other arms of that same government seem bent on undermining that message.

For those who support the Opposition in the belief that Pakatan Rakyat stands for liberation and moderation, Zulkifli Noordin’s outburst in the Dewan Rakyat on Oct 23 and his subsequent interview with Mingguan Malaysia were shocking and chilling at the same time.

Some bloggers are begging Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to sack the MP and let him join Umno, while others think Umno deliberately withdrew an election petition to declare the Kulim Bandar Baru result null and void, knowing that Zulkifli would be a liability to the PR image-building exercise.

Set mindset

Zulkifli declares himself puzzled why Muslims are not supporting him. He does not understand why Khalid Samad, the MP for Shah Alam and a fellow Muslim, criticised his speech in Parliament. He accused Khalid of prioritising party interest above Islam.

Zulkifli regards any challenge to anything he deems Islamic as an attack on the religion. In his eyes, the debate on issues such as freedom of religion, conversions to Islam, road signs in Arabic, the use of the word Allah by non-Muslims, the appointment of non-Muslims to positions traditionally held by Muslims and the controversy involving loudspeakers to amplify sermons from mosques are systematic attacks on Islam from “the left, right, above, below, behind or in front”.

He sees young Muslims who believe in human rights as a danger to the race and religion as these ideas conflict with Islam, and he urges the authorities to take immediate action to stop the dangers posed by these young, educated, liberal Muslims.

As another law professor from the Inter­national Islamic University said in an interview a few weeks ago, these young Muslims are poisoning the minds of other Muslims and they must be stopped!

What is most distressing is that Zulkifli and those like him are trying to wipe out the diversity and differences of opinion endorsed, advocated and studied by generations of enlightened Islamic scholars.

Ikhtilaf (diversity) is a recurring theme in the Quran and widely recognised in Islamic tradition as a natural phenomenon. Have we forgotten the Quranic verse in which God says “we have created you into nations and tribes for you to know each other”, not hate each other?

Or the Hadith that says diversity is a blessing to the community? Why the different sects and the different schools of theology and law in the Islamic tradition? It is precisely because of this diversity in interpretation, juristic opinion and recognition of diverse local practices that Islam has spread to all corners of the world. Every culture, every tradition has been able to accommodate and celebrate the universal message of Islam.

And yet those who claim to be the experts in Islam deny this rich and complex heritage of Muslim scholarship, history and practice. Instead, using their authority, they interpret the authoritative text to impose authoritarianism on those who do not share their narrow understanding of the faith. To them, there can only be one way of knowing Islam and one way of being Muslim.

It is this mindset that inspires the Malay­sian religious authorities to issue one fatwa after another to regulate what Muslims can do and cannot do, what they can think and cannot think, and what they can read and cannot read.

Banning the works of Karen Armstrong and John Esposito, two Western writers most sympathetic to Islam, only exposes the politics behind that decision. I have not met anyone who has read the writings of these two authors and felt their faith undermined. In fact, it is the writings of fair-minded Chris­tians like them that has brought a kinder, gentler face of Islam to many young Western-educated Muslims and non-Muslims all over the world fed on a diet of the punitive Islam of the traditionalist ulama, and the fire and brimstone Islam of political Islamists.

So, let’s be honest here: Is it Islam that needs to be protected as they so claim, or is it Muslims pushing the Islamic state and supremacy of Islamic law ideology who command that their ideology be protected from any challenges posed by those who disagree with them?

When Zulkifli declared, “I am a Muslim first, party member second; I am a Muslim first, a lawyer second; I am a Muslim first, an MP second, I am a Muslim first, everything else is second,” some obvious questions come to mind. What does being a Muslim mean? Is it not possible to be a good Muslim and still be a good lawyer, a good MP, a good human being?

More disturbingly, could he be saying that being Muslim means being divorced from the real world? This is actually a very secular notion that the likes of Zulkifli abhor.

Does a judge who declares he is a Muslim first, a judge second get the licence to violate the Federal Constitution and the rule of law which he swore to uphold in office because he deems them contradictory to his religious beliefs?

Does a lawyer who declares he is a Muslim first, a lawyer second have the right to condemn another lawyer for defending a client’s interest and his right to exercise his freedom of religion as guaranteed under the Federal Constitution?

Can a doctor who declares he is a Muslim first, a doctor second break his professional oath to save lives and do his best for his patients by refusing to save the life of a Muslim in a drink-driving accident?

Flying the flag of Islam does not give anyone the prerogative to think that he or she can become the walking embodiment of Islam. No one knows what God knows. If we accept this — and certainly as Muslims we must — why then should we bow to anyone who claims that he or she knows with certainty the will of God?

In the Islamic tradition, the arrogance of these supremacists is regarded as takbur — considering oneself superior to others. Although the ulama warns us against this, the attitude is prevalent in the Muslim community. It underpins all practices and systems of oppression and discrimination in this world.

It is sad how Islam is instrumentalised today as if it is nothing more than a label. Stick the Islam label on any and every issue and it becomes untouchable, even sacrosanct. No one is to question or to debate it except the experts.

Yet, it is the failure of these so-called experts and those in authority to deal with all these grievances and injustices over the years that we now see open and ugly contestations that have also impacted race relations in this country. The answer is not to silence the debate. The answer is to sit together and find solutions.

We say we are Muslims first, everything else second; we wear our Islam proudly on our sleeves and we put the religion on a pedestal to make it unchanging and unmoving. At the same time, we employ unkind words and practise unkind deeds, especially towards those who think and act differently from us. Without reflection or compassion, we declare that difference is wrong. Is this not a betrayal of what is truly Islamic?

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

股市雖急挫 政府毋須救市但須活化信貸

股市雖急挫 政府毋須救市但須活化信貸

(明報)10月28日 星期二 05:05

【明報專訊】全球金融市場持續動盪,昨日港股暴跌1602點,跌幅達12.7%,是1997年亞洲金融風暴以來最大的點數跌幅。基於全球經濟陷入衰 退已成定局,預計未來一年半載金融市場仍然非常波動,小投資者要量力而為,做好風險管理,以免蒙受損失;政府則毋須干預股市的正常起跌,但須研議措施,活 化信貸市場,讓實體經濟(尤其是中小企)所受的衝擊減至最低。

昨日亞洲開市後,韓國 宣布減息0.75厘等措施救市,股市才止跌回穩;日本 政府雖然表示會採取更多措施救市,但是股市仍然跌至26年以來新低;菲律賓 股市也大跌12%。內地方面,雖然政府陸續提出一些措施,紓緩銀根以對各行各業「放水養魚」,但是投資者仍然悲觀,上證綜合指數跌至25個月新低。

匯豐控股 跌穿SARS

投資者對經濟前景悲觀

本港股市插水式急挫,反映市場瀰漫着恐慌情緒,投資者不問價,只求拋售股票套現。恒生指數42隻成分股中,有37隻跌幅都超過10%,港人的「愛 股」匯豐控股,繼上周跌破100元之後,昨日再暴跌14.77%,收市報75元,股價見7年新低,連當年的SARS價也跌穿了。本來匯控每跌到一定價位, 都會有散戶前仆後繼奮身買入,這堵被形容為捍衛匯控股價的「血肉長城」,昨日並未發生效用,反映一般散戶都取態謹慎,儲備彈藥徐圖後計。

近日全球大跌市,一般認為與基金為應付贖回潮,洗倉套現有關。對冲基金為了應付投資者贖回,拋售資產取回現金,肯定加劇了股市跌勢。很多基金對年底 的贖回要求,有必須在11月15日之前申報的規定,有分析認為,過了這個期限,拋售或許暫告一段落。不過我們認為,無論是基金套現抑或日圓 轉強,導致利差交易拆倉,只是眼前跌市表象;歸根究柢,最重要的原因還是投資者對金融市場未回復穩定、對經濟前景悲觀有關。

投資銀行雷曼兄弟倒閉後,為免引發更嚴重系統性風險,美歐各國動用以萬億計美元 ,直接入股一些主要銀行,變相把銀行局部國有化。這些非常規手段,只是令一些銀行不倒閉,不過,並非銀行的其他金融機構,例如保險公司等,在資產價格大幅貶值下,也有可能會出現財政狀况。事實上,美國 財政部已經考慮入股一些保險公司,可知道問題已經暴露出來。

現在全球處於股市、外匯、原油、商品等各個市場全面「融化」的局面,肯定有許許多多機構出現問題,繼而拖累交易對手。所以,未來各個領域、環節出事規模的大小,會是各國以至全球金融市場承受多大衝擊的關鍵。

金融海嘯已經衝擊實體經濟。美國國內生產總值(GDP)第三季度折合年率下降0.5%,並預測第四季度GDP將下滑4%,這是1982年以來最大幅度的經濟滑坡。另外英國 、歐洲等國家,經濟景况也急速下滑。至於亞洲一些國家的狀况,人們也愈來愈擔心會否重演1997、98年的金融風暴。當年經濟飽受重創的韓國、泰國 印尼 ,目前外債基本在可控制範圍內,而且外匯儲備較充裕,可以捍衛貨幣的彈藥較多。但是假如全球信貸風險進一步惡化,外資大舉撤離,這些國家的風險還是很高。

此外,亞洲國家經濟增長主要依賴出口,當歐美各國經濟衰退之時,出口肯定大受影響。去年,亞洲地區出口佔本地生產總值(GDP)的46.7%,比 1998年的水平還要高。出口若大幅萎縮,肯定會拖低亞洲國家的較高速增長,連續多年一直保持兩位數字增長的中國,明年也要爭取保持8%的增長率,可見放 緩之嚴重。

「活化」信貸市場

「優化」聯繫匯率

各國除了採取措施,撲滅金融市場所燒起的火頭,也在想方設法挽救實體經濟,但是這些措施要一段時間才會見到效果,例如中國為了穩定樓價的舉措,放在 信心崩潰的大環境,效果並不彰顯。處此大動盪時期,政府更須發揮領導的角色和職能,必要時採取果斷手段應對變局,甚至要拋掉市場會自行調節的思維,英國首 相白高敦 甘冒大不韙,違反自由市場原則,由政府直接入股銀行,穩住了銀行系統,就是最好說明。

本港官員和金管局 一再表示,本港已經制定多套應變方案,若有需要,可以即時派用場,昨日,財政司 曾俊華 也作類似「安民喊話」。我們相信政府不會是兩手空空全無準備的,不過一些問題雖非即時危機,但若不及早解決,便會由隱患變成頑疾。

例如銀行同業拆息持續高企,銀行對於中小企的信貸,仍然收得很緊,許多中小企業者叫苦連天。協助中小企,政府當然不應該全部包攬上身,但金管局在要求銀行借貸給中小企方面,應該有更積極做法,打通經脈,「活化」信貸市場,市場才會恢復生機。這是政府和金管局的責任。

本港因為聯繫匯率,已經失去了貨幣政策作為調節經濟的工具,但是美國最近兩次減息,本港都無跟隨,往後相信各國都會以減息為手段,挽救經濟,但是基 於本地拆息高企,銀行業者已經表示無空間跟着減息,對本港經濟會有不利影響。如何進一步「優化」聯繫匯率的結構和操作,以避免本港陷此進退維谷困境,也是 政府和金管局的責任。

Sunday, October 26, 2008

中信泰富瘋狂的豪賭行為

特稿﹕小投資者需自求多福

(明報)10月26日 星期日 05:05

【明報專訊】中信泰富 因炒賣衍生工具錄得巨額虧損,近日成為焦點。繼迷你債券後,又一個結構性產品炸彈爆發。輿論雖同情迷債散戶,但這次卻一面倒指摘中信泰富瘋狂的豪賭行為。

首先,可能普羅大眾對股票accumulator(另一炸彈!)先有認識,而這次的外匯產品結構上又跟股票accumulator相當類似,故新聞 界普遍稱之為外匯accumulator。其實這種非零售的外匯結構產品已有多年歷史,行內稱為FX Target Redemption Forwards(外匯目標贖回期貨)。其主要結構是﹕當匯價高於一個預定的行使價時,客戶可以行使價定期買入外幣。但當匯價低於行使價,客戶便要以行使 價買入兩倍(或更高倍數)的外幣,視乎合約的條文而定。目標贖回的意思是﹕客戶每次以低於市價買入外幣時都有利潤,但當累積的利潤達到某一目標時,銀行便 會提早終止合約。換言之,客戶的潛在利潤有限,但潛在虧損卻是無底。

貪勝不知輸豪賭失敗

不同於迷債散戶,機構投資者進行大額交易時,大多清楚產品風險。他們是跟銀行的投資部門直接交易。「炒房」內的銷售員受過專業訓練,對產品有深入了 解,職責上亦要向客戶詳細介紹有關風險。有很多客戶在交易前甚至要求銀行方面對產品作出模擬測試,即模擬在不同的匯價波動中,客戶盈虧的變化。

在中信泰富事件中,公司要對冲在澳洲 的 鐵礦業務因澳元上升帶來的風險。但從是次交易中購入澳元的金額,卻遠高於實際需要對冲的數目。再者,據聞交易不是一次性,而是在澳元持續上升時逐次進行 的。作為一家大企業的財務主管,亦不可能用無知作為藉口。故筆者相信今次事件不存在銀行誤導,而是中信泰富貪勝不知輸,加大注碼卻遇上市場逆轉,以至豪賭 失敗,賠掉半家公司。筆者也曾遇到一些公司客戶,以對冲為名,賭博為實。他們會要求銀行設計一些結構產品,表面看來可以對冲本身業務的某些金融風險,以符 合公司的內部指引。但卻在本金方面「調整」,故意作偏多(over-hedge)或偏少(under-hedge)的對冲,借此進行投機。

新金融產品繞過規管

這次事件絕對只是冰山一角。不久前亦有鴻興印刷 , 為其管理層用來「對冲」人民幣匯價風險而進行的衍生工具交易作出大額撇帳。這些年來,五花八門的結構性工具充斥市場,獲很多機構投資者的垂青。這些產品的 一個普遍特性是﹕市場平靜時,對客戶有利;但當波幅擴大時,客戶便有機會蒙受損失。現值金融風暴,所有資產類別都經歷駭人波幅,相信已有很多公司客戶錄得 重大虧損。只是未有公開罷了。

監管機構方面有沒有責任?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾稱衍生工具為「大殺傷力金融武器」(financial weapons of mass destruction),他跟債券大王格羅斯(Bill Gross)均認為衍生工具鼓勵公司以他人(股東)金錢賭博。格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在十月廿三日亦公開承認自己犯了錯誤,讓衍生工具的發展失去控制,間接加深了今次的金融危機(遠在一九九四年,格老曾成功阻止收緊衍 生工具的管制)。從今天看來,自由市場並非萬能,適當的監管不可或缺。

其實監管和會計制度多年來已有所改善。可惜投資銀行就是永遠有能力設計出新的產品,繞過規管。銀行只需清楚解釋風險,至於客戶是用來對冲或炒賣,對 其無關重要。客戶贏錢,銀行便「鼓勵」他們加重注碼或作更頻繁炒賣;客戶輸錢,銀行亦可勸他們斬盤止蝕,在斬盤交易中銀行又可大賺一筆。

監管機構將比前嚴謹

早年有一笑話﹕「豐田需要多少員工去製造一輛汽車?」答案是﹕「四個,一個負責設計,一個做裝配,兩個炒長債。」衍生工具在上世紀推出時,目的確是 給用家作更有效率的風險對冲。而市場亦需要有專業炒家開價和坐盤,才能讓用家轉移風險。但慢慢地,當用家也變成炒家,市場便淪為賭場。到頭來,被蒙在鼓裏 的是小股東,他們以為投資予公司的業務經營,誰知卻下注在管理層的炒賣活動。現在所持股票的公司有否類似投資虧損還沒有披露?看來他們只有自求多福。

當金融風暴平靜下來後,可以肯定的是,監管機構會比以前大為嚴謹。除了規限銀行外,對上市公司披露所持衍生工具的資料,應會有更詳盡的要求。而小股民經歷這次事件,將來亦應學會在投資前作更審慎考慮。

文 哥夫

Saturday, October 25, 2008

林毅夫:危機可令全球衰退

林毅夫:危機可令全球衰退

(明報)10月25日 星期六 20:30

世界銀行首席經濟學家林毅夫表示,金融危機將令全球經濟陷入衰退,發展中國家面臨嚴峻挑戰。

林毅夫於5月底赴美出任世行首席經濟學家,此番是他首次回國。24日晚,林毅夫在國家行政學院為北大國際MBA學員作了題為《國際金融危機對發展中國家影響》的演講,報告了他在此次金融危機「震中」的一線觀察與若干思考。

林毅夫提醒,此次百年一遇的國際金融危機發生前,全球經濟剛經歷了二戰後持續時間最長的繁榮期:2002至2007年,無論發展中國家或發達國家,都出現了經濟持續快速增長。

為什麼發達國家能夠快速增長?林毅夫認為既有「遠因」,也有「近因」。其中,「遠因」是上世紀90年代初蘇聯解體後,市場經濟成為全球的主流,金融業管制放鬆,金融創新活躍。

「近因」有二:一是「9·11」後美國 大幅提高國防安全開支,增發貨幣,流動性猛增;二是「新經濟」泡沫破滅後,美聯儲為避免經濟衰退放鬆了貨幣政策,強力刺激房地產消費。這些因素都增加了可用資金數量,拉動投資和消費,令經濟出現榮景。

美國等發達國家經濟的繁榮,有力帶動了發展中國家出口的增加,加之發展中國家內部也出現投資高潮,連帶消費昇溫,這樣,發展中國家的經濟也出現了持續增長。

然而,全球經濟快速增長伴隨著不斷提高的脆弱性,潛伏著危機。林毅夫說,這些暗藏的危機包括:美國房地產價格以非可持續性的兩位數上漲;美國的「雙赤字」越來越大;金融創新的衍生品進一步放大風險。

「這就像老子所說的那樣,福兮,禍之所伏,」林毅夫說,「終於有一天,令經濟快速增長的源泉,變成了導致危機發生的原因。」

他分析說,美國刺激房地產消費的政策給經濟帶來繁榮,但也累積了泡沫,而泡沫沒有不破滅的,這就出現了美國次級抵押市場危機。金融創新非但沒能分散和抑制風險,反而加重了風險,使次貸危機引發連鎖反應,導致一場國際金融危機。

林毅夫指出,此次金融危機最先發生在美國,但也影響到其他發達國家,後者也未能逃脫類似命運。

金融危機將首先造成發達國家的信貸緊縮。林毅夫分析,由於金融監管沒有跟上,人們對金融機構到底有多大風險搞不清楚。當有一兩家機構破產時,大家對 所有金融機構都產生了懷疑,信心大減,於是信貸緊縮,投資放慢。其次,房地產泡沫破滅後,股市猛跌,受財富縮水效應影響,人們開始過窮日子。

「發達國家將不可避免地進入一個衰退期,」林毅夫說。

作為世界最大發展促進機構的首席經濟學家,林毅夫表示他最關心危機對發展中國家的影響。「金融危機不僅會導致全球經濟放緩,還會引起發展中國家的危機,」他說。

具體而言,林毅夫認為發展中國家受發達國家經濟衰退影響出口會急劇減少,同時也將面臨投資資金緊缺的挑戰。

發展中國家還可能產生「危機的第二輪效應」。林毅夫解釋,發展中國家前期的經濟增長與投資有關,現在受金融危機影響,未完成項目因缺錢可能變成「半拉子工程」,已完成項目可能變成過剩產能。這兩種情況都會造成銀行呆壞賬的增加。

他認為,發展中國家應對這場危機的當務之急,是防止金融部門崩潰,政府應以果斷、迅速、全面的方式防止銀行部門垮台。同時,要通過放鬆銀根、實行擴張性財政政策,進行反周期操作,努力實現經濟的「軟著陸」。

對中國經濟形勢,林毅夫表示審慎樂觀。他說,中國應對國際金融危機有三道防線;一是充足的外匯儲備,二是仍實行資本管制,三是財政收入比較高,有能力實施擴張性財政政策。

「中國如果能夠維持經濟平穩快速增長,將是對世界最大的貢獻。」林毅夫說。

Friday, October 24, 2008

Capital flight in all Regional Markets

Global credit meltdown started from the superpower America. All assets in the region being dump by the Foreign Funds.

We can see the daily drop of all regional market by 3-11%, it repeat almost weekly. I believe it will not end here because the Foreign holding is huge, it's so huge that it may need to take months to finish their selling.

Our central bankers in Asia is SMARTER now after learning the experience in 1997/8 financial crisis. Why go in now to support the currency ? They most likely to leave the currency drop so that the Foreign Fund will get lesser when they convert to USD in Capital Flight. They will go ultimately anyway, why support the currency for the Foreign Fund to get more?

Same goes to the equity market! Why go in to support the shares price ? Just let it drop & let the Foreign Fund get lesser & lesser when they dump our equity. They have to finished their selling in this few months, then just let the price drop. Why the Govt have to support the price for the Foreign Fund to gain ?

It is better to wait for the Foreign Fund to finish their selling first, wait a bit longer for another few months, then the Asian Govt only started to go into the equity market to support the price.
A V shape rebound then is more sustainable and it will work to our advantage.

Monday, October 13, 2008

DOW JONE -HOW LOW IS LOW; PE 10 OR 6 ?

[新聞]專家料華爾街仍要大跌

(明報)10月12日 星期日 21:20

曾準確預測二千科網股泡沫爆破及最近的次貸泡沫的耶魯大學 學者席勒認為,美國 股市距離見底仍很遠。

他指出,參考格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的計算方法,套用到標普500指數,目前的格雷厄姆市盈率約為15倍。由1881年至今的標普500指數,得出格雷厄姆市盈率的平均值為 16.3倍。戰後,這個市盈率數值在1977至1984年間也曾跌穿10倍;在1982年的7月及8月,更曾低見6.6倍。

他表示,在今次金融海嘯中,若格雷厄姆市盈率再度低見10倍和6.6倍,意味道指(上周五收市為8,451.19)將分別跌至6000點和4000點的水平,即美股可能再跌30%至50%。(華爾街日報 )

Sunday, October 12, 2008

BACK TO BASIC FOR ALL EQUITY MARKETS

IT'S GAME OVER FOR WALL STREETS, GAME OVER FOR THOSE DAY THAT HOT MONEY CAME IN & OUT INTO ALL OVER THE WORLD TO PUSH UP/ DOWN CERTAIN MARKET TO SPECULATE/MANIPULATE FOR INSTANT GAIN IN MARKET.

Those market that have higher Foreign Participation will be burnt the hardest.( Fortunately Malaysia is the least one)

Tokyo, Singapore, HongKong will be the worst among the Asian countries. ( It's a nightmare to be a Financial Center now!)

Expect all the high PE counter to go down gradually to a single digit PE price.

Not just Bond market dry up, Equity Market also dry up.

There are no more $$ in share market for Major shareholder to cash out, you just would not get a good price for your IPO.

All back to basic, you only go to Bursa if your Company really need to raise Fund.(not cash out )

This time in Bursa, When Financial Tsunami hit Malaysia, it is the BIG SHARKS & BIG CROC THAT GET BURNT, Not the small fish & retail player like you & me.

Now we have to learn to invest in Bursa as a shareholder, but not investor, certainly not speculator, at least for these few years.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

债权换股权,中国救美的最大筹码

债权换股权,中国救美的最大筹码


时间:2008年10月11日 08:32:27 中财网


  美国今天至少有上百万亿美元的金融泡沫和几十万亿美元的债务,当危机再次爆发时,美国政府如果还继续动用注资的办法来救市,只能使美国的泡沫气球越吹 越大,将来破起来造成的危险更大。所以,此前美国国会和一百多名经济学家反对政府救市是有道理的,就是不愿让金融泡沫继续鼓下去。当然,不出手救市的结果 是很明显的,那就是一批批银行和企业要破产垮下去,美国财富和美国经济要露出真原形,与美国有关的一切债权国都要遭受巨大的经济损失。
  美国财富缩水将达到什么程度?如果将美国政府和企业里用金融衍生工具包装和虚拟出来的虚假财富挤出去,那么美国的实际财富量将大幅缩水,美国的股市将跌回3000点。水落石出之后,美国的实物经济总量并没有多少。以实物经济总量来衡量,中国要成为世界第一大国。
  所以,现在的问题就是让不让美国这个财富大气球撒气?如果不让它撒气,或者不让它撒彻底,那么美国就会像一个定时炸弹一样时刻悬在世界各国人民头上, 随时随地地对人们形成威胁。因此,最好的办法是让这个泡沫适当地破灭。让美国回到实物经济。这样对美国和世界其他各国都有好处。
  如果美国退回实物经济,如果美国经济露出其真实的原形,那么美国的GDP将大幅萎缩,中国的GDP将在几年内超过美国。但在这期间,中国也要付出巨大的损失。
  譬如,中国投入美国的1.2万亿美元的债券投资就要化为乌有。那么现在中国参与美国救市行动,这批海外投资就能保全和收回来了吗?也不可能。这是因为 美国的债务窟窿太大,七八千亿美元仅仅是杯水车薪。所以,中国如果参与救市,就等于雪上加霜,那就是原有损失之上再添额外的损失。
  因此,一动不如一静,中国不如静观其变。中国决不能再损上加损了!看看美国的债务量有多大,政府的债务现在已经10万亿美元,民间的债务要高达几十万 亿美元。美国现在砸锅卖铁可能也还不上这样巨大的债务,最终的结果只能是赖账。而赖账的办法就是印钞票,让美元大幅贬值,造成超级通货膨胀。其结果,那就 是所有持有美元的国家的外汇资产大幅贬值。
  其结果肯定是一场大清算,如果一眼就能看到这种后果,那么今天中国的做法就应是立即行动起来,想法挽救损失,第一目标首先是保卫将近2万亿美元的外汇 储备,首先是已经投到美国的大约1.2万亿美元。这笔投资,有的已经拿不回来了。怎么办?那就是进行两国政府间的谈判,动用国家力量来保卫自己的海外投 资。
  中国是一个被美国绑架者,但中国手中也有讨价还价的筹码。具体办法就是,用我国的海外债券回购美国企业在华投资企业的股权。譬如,美国通用汽车公司在 上海的投资,中国要用美国国债将其股权收归国有。对美国所有的在华投资企业,凡是涉及到国家安全战略性的企业,统统进行股权收购。中国也要像美国一样来一 场外资企业国有化!
  中国不是再向美国贴钱,而是出售债券,换回美国在华企业的产权。这样做,既是在拯救美国,也是在拯救中国本身。既是在向美国注资,又是让美国企业回归美国。
  目前,美国在华投资共有大约2000亿美元,只需要动用我国的海外外汇储备一部分就可以完成这一任务。中国政府如果不迅速采取行动,那么随着美元的大贬值和美国企业的破产倒闭,中国的海外投资很快便会化为乌有。
  接下来就是回购我国企业在海外的股权。譬如,前些年,我国有不少大型国有企业在海外廉价上市,今天中国要趁美国金融危机的时机将这些廉价上市的国企股 权尽量收回。中国要从国家角度进行干预,将这些企业股权尽快收回,譬如,中石油、中石化、工商银行、建设银行等大型国有企业,我国的主权基金首先要做的就 是迅速将这些企业的海外股权收归国有。
  把债权换股权,是我国下一步要做的主要任务。如果中国不采取行动,或者采取了错误的行动,那么,只能是赔了夫人又折兵。既搭上了海外的债券,又放任流 失了国内的外资股权。因此,中国在这场国际利益大搏杀过程中,决不能坐以待毙,要立即出击,挽回损失,我们不能眼巴巴地看着多少年辛辛苦苦积累的一点家底 一点点地化为乌有。但这样做必须首先在国家政府层面上进行谈判。既然美国政府极力要求中国采取行动,进行救市,那么中国政府就要以自己的方法进行救市,以 双方互利互惠的方法稳定美国债券市场。(作者系北京大军经济观察研究中心主任)
□ .仲.大.军  .华.夏.时.报

亂市機會處處 亞洲企債值博

財星教理財 [昔日新聞]
財經老手袁天凡:亂市機會處處 亞洲企債值博
2008年10月6日



【明報專訊】訪問現時已半退休的財經界名人袁天凡,最多聽到的詞彙不是李澤楷,也不是電盈(0008), 更不是鵬利保險,而是「Asymmetric」(不對稱)。無論談到香港應否禁沽空、或是香港過往的賣地制度、還是當年電盈鯨吞香港電訊,他都用上這個 詞。其實市場的不對稱現象,結果往往是錯價,袁天凡認為當有錯價出現,就代表有投資機會。刻下的市場亂局,正正提供了不少投資機會,包括亞洲企業債券及信貸違約掉期。

海嘯對亞洲衝擊較金融風暴微

近 日股市可用頃刻萬變來形容,人心虛怯,但袁天凡說,相對於97年亞洲金融風暴,或是1989年「六四」事件,今次金融海嘯對亞洲的衝擊,相對來說未必這麼 大。「天安門事件(袁時任職聯交所總裁),直接影響香港的政治及經濟,當時一天股市可以跌2成……現時亞洲的經濟情相對97年健康,無論國家或企業的債 務都不高。」

袁天凡說,不敢估計港股是否已經見底。但他指美國現時仍在降低槓桿(Deleverage),因此股票及商品都不會看好,在經濟增長放慢時,商品價格還可以跌下去。他說,未來兩、三個月股市極可能出現一個反彈,直至年底,但是否可持續呢?則完全看信貸市場。

股市回升看債息能否回復正常

「除非信貸市場返回正常水平。所謂正常水平是(亞洲企業債券)利息為8至10厘,股市才有資格回升。」袁天凡形容,現在彷彿是黎明前的黑暗。「好似5點鐘,明知7點鐘天就會光,但不知黑暗幾時先完。所以要留意『雞啼』。」他口中的「雞啼」,就是信貸市場回復正常。

他說,最黑暗的時候正是最多投資機會的時候,這正好出現在信貸市場。曾經在匯豐旗下獲多利債券部任職的袁天凡指出:「好像中國銀行(3988),你說它會關門嗎?但它的信貸違約掉期是180點子,即等同市場願意付18萬美元來買一份保險,保障中國銀行1000萬美元債項的違約風險(圖1),以往正常時只是50至60點子。當然它可以再升至250點子,但你信不信一兩年之後會回復正常水平?當然升至250點子時,你可能給人追孖展,但我夠膽去,現在機會好多。」

他又以亞洲企業債券為例,一隻新世界中國(0917)的債券,尚有20個月便到期,現時售價為75(到期時發行人會以100贖回),即20個月內升幅可達33%,而且該債券還是人民幣定價,可以賺升值。當然一般投資者無法買到信貸違約掉期,但可透過買亞洲企業債券基金,涉足亞企債券市場。

美收樓到頂 年半樓市見底

袁天凡在訪問時多次提到看兩年,被問及是否內有玄機,他說有研究指出,美國收樓(Foreclosure)到頂時,12至18個月後樓市便見底(圖2)。

撰文:高志堅、吳詠珠(明報財經網主編)

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Bailout passed, but crisis worsens

Bailout passed, but crisis worsens

GLOBAL TRENDS
By MARTIN KHOR

The Star 4 Oct 2008
After high drama, the US Congress finally passed a bailout package aimed at preventing an economic disaster. But the financial and economic crisis actually worsened last week.

LAST Thursday the US$700bil (RM2.4tril) bailout plan was finally approved by the US House of Representatives and signed into law by President George Bush.

This was after much drama. The Bill was originally rejected by the House because of intense pressure from the public who are outraged that the banking fat cats are being bailed out by taxpayers while house buyers are not, and many are losing their homes through mortgage defaults.

After a minor touch up, both the Senate and the House passed the Bill, because they were told that the US economy would be vaporised if the bailout did not take place. Under the scheme, the government can buy up to US$700bil of “toxic securities” from the banks, so that their balance sheets can improve and they can lend again.

Despite the adoption of the US bailout plan, the crisis of the Western economies worsened last week.

Firstly, more data showed the “real economy” is sinking. The loss of jobs hit a five-year high in the US, while more major European economies have slipped into recession, which will deepen in future. A survey of manufacturers showed falling orders throughout the developed world.

Secondly, the prices of oil and many commodities have fallen sharply, due to speculative forces and the fall in demand, heralding the end of the commodities boom. Developing countries like Malaysia will be affected through reduced export earnings.

Thirdly, while most media attention was on the US bailout, it is in Europe that the crisis has really deepened.

Last week, European countries have had to rescue six banks, some of them household names, such as Bradford & Bingley (of the UK), Fortis (the Dutch-Belgian bank which owns parts of ABN-AMRO), and Dexia, a French-Belgian bank.

Several other banks are in a precarious situation. But unlike the US, there is no bailout package in Europe. French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed a European common fund to bail out financial institutions, but this was opposed by Germany and the European Central Bank among others.

A finance-crisis summit of four major European countries ended last Saturday with only pledges to cooperate, but no concrete plan.

On the ground, depositors have become jittery. They are “fleeing to safety” in the UK as they move their savings from their banks to other banks that are fully guaranteed by the government.

And when the Irish government announced it was guaranteeing deposits in its six domestic banks, it caused a storm in other countries, as people began shifting their funds to Irish banks at the expense of other banks.

Fourthly, the credit crunch has really worsened in that banks and companies are now largely unable to get loans from the money market, in which banks lend to one another.

This, in turn, means that the banks are reducing loans to consumers and businesses (thus worsening the recession) while companies could face financial problems as well as cut their investments.

The credit crunch is taking place in various financial markets. The money market has been largely frozen as the banks fear that other banks may be having problems. As a result, the cost of borrowing has shot up to record levels.

Although the central banks have pumped hundreds of billions of euros of loans to banks to make up for the scarcity in the money market, many banks are still short of funds.

The inability to borrow funds has contributed to the insolvency of the banks that had to be rescued. We can expect more banks going under in Europe.

Then there are the money market funds that provide short-term loans known as commercial paper (CP) to companies. There is now a virtual freeze in this market, with even top companies like General Electric and AT&T unable to tap it.

In three weeks, US$200bil (RM696bil) was taken out of the CP market, and last week alone the amount lent to companies fell US$95bil (RM330bil).

A market strategist was quoted by Financial Times as saying that there is no area in the credit markets or banking system where companies are raising money, an unbelievable situation. This is problematic as the CP market is where companies go to raise working capital to produce goods and services.

Fifthly, more problems are on the near horizon. For example, the US$54,000bil (RM188tril) credit derivatives market is facing a big test this month as contracts of defaulted derivatives on failed companies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Lehman Brothers are due for settlement.

This could result in billions of dollars of losses for insurance companies and banks that offered credit insurance, according to the Financial Times.

For example, Lehman’s bonds have been trading at 15 to 19 cents (RM0.52 to RM0.66) on the dollar. Thus investors who gave out protection (insuring that Lehman would not default) will have to pay out 81 to 85 cents (RM2.82 to RM2.95) on the dollar.

The credit derivatives market is not only huge in value but also complex in inter-relationships between institutions and counter-parties. A problem there can have wide repercussions.

Finally, the crisis has so far been focused on the developed countries, but some developing countries like Brazil are already reporting that they are being affected financially.

Moreover, the weakening of the US and European economies will affect the exports of the developing world, as the fall in commodity prices already show.

The US bailout package may help restore some confidence in the markets for a short while, but as the crisis continues to unfold, there will be more shocks and many problems ahead.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

炮製金融黑洞 華爾街作繭自綁

炮製金融黑洞 華爾街作繭自綁

(星島)10月5日 星期日 06:30

(綜合報道)

美國 救市方案過關,天文數字的資金是否足以扭轉金融市場不斷失血的情況,專家亦言人人殊。正當前路陰霾未散,愈來愈多市場人士提出另一個更加「有效」的方法,就是放寬現存上市公司的會計準則,令受困公司財政可以霍然而瘉。

  美國近年以增加透明度和更真實反映公司帳目為由,大舉修改上市公司會計守則,其中一樣就是要求公司把手頭資產,按公平市值(mark to market)入帳計算。這次美國金融公司紛紛出事,財政陷入周轉不靈,原因之一是手頭大批資產價格大幅下跌,其中主要涉及複雜的衍生工具。這些資產雖然 未曾出售,但卻令到公司出現龐大虧損,迅即陷入資不抵債的困局。

  金融公司帳面損失暴增,起因是華爾街大行把不同資產包裝成種類繁多的產品,最後這些衍生工具有些甚麼?究竟值多少錢?變成沒有人說得準。當市場 出現波動時,買家信心動搖,大家都無法進行估值,最後變成無價無市,令金融公司會計上的資產瘋狂蒸發,其他交易對手為求自保,紛紛拒絕拆借出資金,令市場 進一步惡化,形成不斷下跌的漩渦。

  市值入帳 鎖死金融大行

  為了拆解惡性循環,於是有人提議,放寬按市價入帳的做法,容許企業以反映「更合理」價值的方式,在帳簿上記存這些資產。提出建議的專家相信,只要容許放寬,即時可以大幅改善金融機構的財政狀況,不這樣做的話,即使救市方案過關,資金都可能被這個會計黑洞吸走。

  專家的建議是否可行,公眾難下判斷,但感覺上難免會啼笑皆非。當初要求上市公司更改會計方式,原意是希望能準確反映公司資產價值,現在大難臨 頭,忽然要放寬限制,竟說改進後的會計方式未能反映資產價值,令公司陷入困境。聽完這些專家的論據,公眾又會否覺得放寬的建議,有一點容許「篤數」的味道 呢?

  近年改變上市公司會計準則,或許帶有善良動機,但客觀效果之一,是令到上市公司的經營表現波動,其中一個例子,就是對公司投資的入帳計算。根據 目前的會計要求,上市公司不同類型資產,會有不同的處理,但大體方向是每年重估,同時以市值入帳,其中部分會撥入損益帳,所以有時會出現公司所持有的同一 批股票不買不賣,今年賺大錢、明年卻蝕大本的狀況。

  追求炒作 害人最終害己

  過去的會計制度,容許管理層採納較保守的會計守則,譬如把資產按成本或市值兩個標準中較低的一個入帳,這樣做增加了管理層調節盈利的空間,壞處當然是方便粉飾業績,結果減少了每年交數的壓力,同時也容許管理層以較長遠角度看問題。

  上市公司把會計制度變得更「貼市」,管理層未必歡迎,但華爾街大鱷卻鼓掌,因為公司業績少了迴轉空間,每次公布就更有刺激性,帶來炒上炒落的獲 利機會。正如美國實施上市公司每季進行業績公布一樣,管理層未必歡迎,認為勞民傷財,而且逼使管理層要以更短期的眼光去營運;但基金大戶則拍手歡迎,認為 這種增加透明度的做法,令他們可以更貼市地作出買賣。所以這次華爾街幾家投資大行被會計黑洞逼上絕路,不無諷刺之餘,亦令人反思美國上市公司管治的理念, 是否過分進取,特別是在經濟環境轉劣時,應否增加必要的保護性措施,採用保守的會計制度。

金融危機對中國直接衝擊相對較小。

林毅夫:危機對華衝擊較小[15:50]
2008年10月7日



世界銀行高級副行長、首席經濟學家林毅夫表示,今次金融危機對中國直接衝擊相對較小。

林 毅夫接受新華社記者專訪時表示,當前金融危機是上世紀大蕭條以來最嚴重危機,從這場危機中,世界應該吸取兩大深刻教訓。第一,不能為了解決一個問題,卻創 造一個更大的問題。在林毅夫看來,金融危機之所以發展到目前階段,與美國政府沒有很好處理2001年互聯網泡沫破滅有關。因為當時美國聯儲局用減息來刺激 房地產經濟。

他認為,由此造成美國房地產市場一度高度繁榮,代價是房地產泡沫是更大的泡沫,泡沫破滅以後就更難解決。

林毅夫說,另一個教訓就是,要關注金融創新的隱患。美國金融衍生品愈搞愈複雜,監管又沒跟上,這就給房地產市場泡沫的形成起到了推波助瀾的作用。金融創新是必要的,但創新後,應該了解這些創新產品的好處和存在的弊端,在監管上要跟上。

林毅夫指出,儘管美國政府和美聯儲採取了前所未有的大規模金融救援措施,但是美國經濟依然存在許多不確定因素。美國金融機構將會有很大調整,投資和消費貸款會減少,美國經濟將會放緩,但放緩的程度多大,衰退還是嚴重衰退?時間會多長?目前還難以預料。

他 認為,這次金融危機對中國直接衝擊相對較小,因為中國金融機構購買的美國次貸產品不多。但間接影響不應忽視,因為美國經濟放緩勢必減少美國的需求,而這會 衝擊到中國對美出口。但相對來說,由於中國對美出口產品以生活必需品為主,而一些高收入國家對美國出口則以高檔消費品為主,因此美國經濟放緩對後者的衝擊 要更大一些。

在當前嚴峻金融形勢下,中國應如何應對?林毅夫認為,中國應該增加內需,而在這方面中國有很大的潛力。

對於美國提出全球合作應對危機,林毅夫指出,美國也希望加強與中國的合作,但對中國來說,中國經濟保持穩定快速發展,就是對世界經濟的一大貢獻。

林毅夫此前曾擔任北京大學中國經濟研究中心主任。今年2月世行行長佐利克任命他擔任世行高級副行長兼首席經濟學家,他也是第一位來自發展中國家的世行首席經濟學家。(新華社)

Saturday, October 04, 2008

股民金融海嘯下輸命(Dont treat it as Casino)

股民金融海嘯下輸命
曾稱「唔玩股票點發達」 報販損失數十萬燒炭

【明報專訊】金融海嘯席捲全球,股市 波動,少數人及時收手「執番身彩」,但更多的人投資損手。正當數以萬計雷曼迷你債券事主日思夜想追回損失之時,一名投資股票失利的報販,疑不堪數十萬元家 財付諸流水,昨日在北角寓所燒炭身亡,成為近月股市狂潮的首名犧牲者。據其朋友透露,死者生前曾豪言﹕「唔玩股票點發達?唔通靠辛苦打工?」詎料最終走上 絕路。

燒炭身亡男子吳╳德,38歲,與妻子及兩名讀小學女兒,一家四口居於北角英皇道310號雲華大廈。其家人及親友事後趕到醫院,得悉吳某死訊後傷心不已。

反鎖廁所 妻報警揭發

昨午4時許,吳妻返回寓所發現廁所門鎖上及有煙冒出,拍門無回應,立即報警。消防趕至破門入屋,赫見吳在廁所內燒炭昏迷,他由救護車送院搶救不治。警方調查後相信無可疑,正了解其尋死原因。

吳 原本相約一名姓關好友於昨日傍晚到蘭桂坊晚膳,好友其後接到其自殺消息後,即趕至醫院了解,得悉噩耗後慨嘆懷疑是投資股票損手,令吳自尋短見。關先生透 露,他與吳為中學同學,兩人畢業後分別做廚房工作,同學兼同行,感情甚篤,他不時會到吳家作客。關又稱,吳與妻小生活融洽,惟吳因性格內向沉默,在工作方 面不太如意,不時抱怨遭同事排斥。

年前屢有斬獲

兩三年前,吳開始踏足股巿,將積蓄投資到股票上,當時他以「股海洶湧」好言相 勸,但吳不以為意,說﹕「唔玩股票點發達?唔通靠辛苦打工?」一心希望靠股票賺錢,讓家人生活富足。年前股市暢旺時,吳一度「願望成真」,屢有斬獲,更辭 掉廚房工作,轉到寓所附近經營報檔,除股票外,亦開始投資基金,頗為風光。

好景不常,吳半年前在投資市場損手,更曾向關某透露因股巿損失慘重想過自殺,又表示死前會為家人安頓一切。當時關好言相勸,但不以為意。至近日環球金融海嘯下,吳投資再損失數以十萬元計,陷入財困,懷疑他因而走上絕路。

持「新股必賺」心態或屬病態

明愛展晴中心督導主任鄧耀祖說,投資者與病態賭徒只一線之隔,當你發現經常抱覑「有市未為輸」、「存錢入股場」、「新股必賺」等心態去作金融投資時,很可能已陷入「病態賭徒」的深淵。

該中心過去5年曾為1887名問題或病態賭徒提供戒賭輔導,個案多以賭馬、賭場、賭波為主,但少數事主卻用賭博的心態和行為從事金融買賣,範圍甚至涉及期貨及認股證等。鄧耀祖說,這些人往往並非從事金融業,卻將全副身家投入股市,「不注視股市上落時,會坐立不安和沒有安全感,於是輸到無錢仍要『賭』!」

鄧稱,賭輸錢者借貴利,賭輸股者就借孖展,「但他們往往咬定自己是在『投資』,死也不肯認在賭博」。

鄧說,最近股市風高浪急,「病態股民」卻往往認為「這樣才更刺激,忽略工作、家庭、生活」,很容易會泥足深陷,填不了無底洞,又拒絕求助,便有可能走上自眦之途。

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Fire Sales- Any Taker ?



LionDiv continue the fall from 0.845 to 0.59.

Now the total Market Cap is only RM435 mil. against it's NTA of 2.68 per shares or SHARHOLDERS FUND of RM1975 mil.

Icap Mr. Tan Teng Boo said in it's AGM this year that he didn't manage to sell all it's Liondiv because the price is not attractive when fall below 2.10.

I am still puzzling who is the seller to sell at 0.60 & why ?

FIRE SALES ? ANY TAKER ? AT LIQUIDATION PRICE !
OR MR. MARKET HAVE GONE CRAZY.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

From Now on to Oct 2008



Watch closely for the political development during this period.

Face -off between BN & PR.

Since Abdullah Badawi dare not to take the risk to call an urgent meeting in Parliament now, I guess BN govt will try to use the limited time now to win back the support of their MP.

If Adullah or UMNO fail, and Anwar eventually manage to get the 31MP to crossover and form a PR Govt;

Anything could happen in this period, UMNO will not let go the POWER so easily. ( I don't think they will act like a gentlemen)

This will be a Stormy Month(s).

Thursday, September 18, 2008

SUPER MEGA SALES COMING BACK- AGAIN!

KLCI GAP DOWN TO 980 POINTS.

ENJOY SHOPPING ! SUPER MEGA SALES AGAIN.

WHICH ONE IS THE MOST VALUE BUY ???

Saturday, September 13, 2008

HOME MINISTER MUST RESIGN FOR ABUSING OF POWER

THIS IS OBVIOUS A CLEAR CASE OF ABUSING POWER BY ARRESTING RPK, TERESA & THE JOURNALIST TAN UNDER ISA

ALL OF US , INCLUDING MCA, GERAKAN & BN COMPONENT PARTIES MUST REQUEST SYED HAMID, THE HOME MINISTER TO RESIGN BY ABUSING POWER ENTRUSTED BY RAKYAT.

YOU MUST RELEASE ALL DETAINEE & RESIGN! SYED HAMID.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Sin Chew reporter arrested under ISA !?????????

The news from TheMalaysianInsider : Sin Chew Reporter arrested under ISA !

Oh My God! The Malaysian Government is hitting the wrong person. What's wrong for the reporter to report news. To report the true news.

This is confirmed again that The UMNO Govt is BEYOND REDEMPTION !

I WILL SEE HOW MCA & GERAKAN RESPONDED TO THIS ISA EVENT.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

SHELLS THAT BELONG TO AHMAD

Many of us in Penang received SMS & email to suggest 'Stop using SHELL that belong to Ahmad in Penang Island'

We may disagree to Racist Remarks by Ahmad, & he has been punished by his party UMNO by suspending his membership by 3 years.

Let the Police do their job, prosecute him if he has offended the LAW.

It's totally unnecessary to boycott his Biz, things will get back to normal eventually if everyone act reasonably.

Don't push someone into corner.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

CONFIRMED! UMNO IS BEYONG REDEMPTION

Just look at how UMNO leaders behave before 308 General Election, how UMNO run it's Permatang Paul campaign & how Abdullah & UMNO leaders' 'tidak apa' attitude in Ahmad's racist remark.

It's CONFIRMED ! UMNO IS BEYOND REDEMPTION!!

Within UMNO, there are not just One, but many more AHMAD, maybe hunreds or thousands more AHMAD in UMNO. It's not difficult to reason out why Abdullah not able to punish Ahmad.

EVERY MALAYSIAN, MALAY , CHINESE, INDIAN & OTHERS THAT LOVE THIS BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY, WHO WANT IT TO PROGRESS & PROSPEL MUST REJECT THIS BEYOND REDEMPTION UMNO.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

LIONDIV @0.845 ON 19/8/2008

LionDiv continue to fall to new low today after the demerger with Parkson.

If you have bought it at price above 1.50 & have not cut it early), it's scary to watch it drop non-stop to 0.845 today.
( match the drop in CI from 1500 - 1068)

I am wondering why there are so many seller at this price ?
At 0.845, Liondiv has selling at a discount of 70% against it's March'08 NTA of 2.70.

Now you have a chance to own a Biz on one of Malaysia's Major steel mill at price of 70% discount.

Is there not enough Safety of Margin ?
Have not the risk of political uncertainty fully factor in the price ?
Still want to wait for CI to hit 950 point ?

This make me recall back what has happen to LionInd in 2005-2006. A falling knife drop to 0.60 before rebound to 3.00 in early 2008.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Gerakan's MP Tan Lian Hoe : PULL OUT

Dr Koh quashes talk of Gerakan pullout move

the star 18/8/2008:

IPOH: Perak Gerakan wants the party to pull out of Barisan Nasional in view of coalition leaders adopting a political culture that garners support from only one particular communities.

About 80% of the delegates expressed that view during the Perak delegates’ conference yesterday.

Perak Gerakan Wanita chief Datuk Tan Lian Hoe, who is also national Wanita chief, said initial feedback from the delegates indicated that they were dissatisfied with Barisan leaders who used racial issues to garner support from members.

Is this an indication of GERAKAN'S MP CROSSOVER to Pakatan Rakyat ?

Will Anwar's promises realised on 16/9/2008 ?


Friday, August 08, 2008

ALL OUT TO VOTE IN PERMATANG PAUH




WE CAN NOT AFFORD EVEN TO MISS A VOTE !
IF BN NOT RECEIVING OUR MESSAGE IN 308 ELECTION,

WE MUST SENT A STRONGER MESSAGE THIS TIME IN PERMATANG PAUH

MUST GO TO VOTE, WHERE EVER YOU ARE, GIVE ANWAR A BIGGEST MAJORITY !!!!

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

AGM, I-CAP Bhd





I attended I-CAP's AGM for the 1st time on last Saturday(2/8/2008), the Ball Room at Sime Darby Convention Center is Big and full with few hundreds of I-cap shareowner.

The presentation by Mr. Tan Teng Boo is very informative, touch on Malaysia & World Economy, & review on the many stocks on I-cap Bhd portfolio.

I will come back again next year.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Mercedes Vs Perdana V6: IT'S A JOKE TO PM





IF A SIMPLE GOVT POLICY FOR ALL GOVT OFFICE TO USE NATIONAL CAR (PROTON) DECIDED BUT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED DUE TO RESISTANCE.

WHAT POLICIES FOR DEVELOPMENT CAN THE EXISTING GOVT IMPLEMENTED FOR THE COUNTRY !?

THIS JOKE TELL US, THE RAKYAT, THE EXITING UMNO LED GOVT IS INCAPABLE.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

TOO EARLY TO BE OPTIMISTIC



The market's sentiments & prospect still weak. Not to be optimistic yet.

Yesterday we saw the Index up 30 point and market volume surge to 656 mil shares. Is this the panic buying ? Why the buyer suddenly find our market attractive ? or This is a TRAP to push up the share price for them to exit at higher price ? (for the Foreign and Local Funds, they just can't
EXIT in such low volume, no buyer market)


ALMOST ALL INVESTOR or PUNTER HAS LOSE INTEREST IN BURSA,

The political uncertainty is here to stay and will not end in short term . I certainly hope it will not getting worse.
The Malaysia economy is slowing down due to Increased Inflation.
Credit tightening by Banks & Major supplier will affect cash flow for many businesses.
Consumer cut spending.

ANY BUYER FOR SHARES IN BURSA MALAYSIA ???

Just to be cautious, advisable to take a break in this 2-3 months, at least.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

POLITICAL RISK 2





I have written a post in May 17th (Political Risk-Cut or Hold) to alert all on the political risk we face in Malaysia. Since then I have cut half of my stock.

Unfortunately or fortunately I have run earlier, the Political Drama turn to the ugly side, Anwar has been arrested today by Police ( or UMNO Govt).

Just to be cautious, this is
NOT the End but just a Beginning for the Worse depend on the political development in next few weeks.

WILL KEADILAN MOBILISE IT'S SUPPORTER TO CHALLENGE UMNO ?
WILL THE CONFRONTATION BETWEEN UMNO & KEADILAN GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ?

The bad news for investors is; ON TOP OF OUR OWN INTERNAL PROBLEM, There is the EXTERNAL GLOBAL BEAR MARKET.

CASH IS KING .

The Value Investor is waiting for this down trend to hunt for Good Value Stock. If you apply the Concept of Margin of Safety, buy a good fundamental stock at 'CHEAP' price, you will be rewarded in the long run.

BUT YOU BETTER BE SURE THAT YOU KNOW HOW TO DETERMINE WHICH COMPANY IS A 'GOOD FUNDAMENTAL STOCK'
& WHEN IT'S CONSIDER 'CHEAP'

Sunday, July 13, 2008

'Most Corrupted Department'

Malaysiakini :
Another senior immigration officer nabbed for corruption
Jul 12, 08 1:04pm

The Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) has nabbed another senior Immigration Department officer to assist in their investigations into alleged graft involving the issuance of visas for foreign workers.

MCPX
The 54-year-old officer was brought to the court in Klang at 11.45am today and placed under five-day remand by Magistrate Zarifah Zainal Abidin.

Also remanded was his 59-year-old brother-in-law for his suspected involvement as an intermediary in the scheme in Selangor.

Bernama was told that the duo were picked up yesterday when the officer was at his office in Putrajaya at about 3pm while his brother-in-law in Negeri Sembilan.

wahid mohd don immigrationThis comes hot on the heels after the arrest of Immigration Department director-general Wahid Don (left) and six others for similar offences.

At a press conference yesterday, ACA investigations director Shukri Abdull said a director-general of government department, who is a Datuk, was detained last night at his house in Damansara.

However, the Star has named the high ranking civil servant as Wahid.

Meanwhile, the other six, include two businesspersons involved in the supply of foreign labour to local companies. Three of them carry Datuk titles.

All seven are being investigated under Section 11(a) of the Anti-Corruption Act 1997.

According to the daily, ACA officers seized approximately RM500,000 from all of them including more than RM100,000 found in Wahid’s Jalan Duta house.


It reported that ACA officers had arrested Wahid at 10.30pm on Thursday, shortly after purportedly receiving some RM60,000 from a runner for a deal involving the issuance of work permits and extensions.

“We are investigating them for alleged involvement in the issuance of work permits to foreign workers,” Shukri reportedly said.

Prior to taking up his post at the department in October 2006, Wahid was the Registrar of Societies.

The issuance of visas for foreign workers falls under the purview of the Immigration Department.


The arrest is LONG OVERDUE as everyone know the IMMIGRATION DEPT is the most corrupted department for MANY years. However it's still Better Late than None!

As a citizen, I HOPE the ACA will ACT on JPJ & PUSPACOM soonest possible for they are known to everyone is another 'Most Corrupted Department'


Tuesday, July 08, 2008

SELL DOWN IN ASIAN MARKET

The sell down not just in Malaysia.
In fact, Malaysia is the least affected Market.
The Asian Market is being dump by Foreign Fund today, Hong Kong is the worst market today for it has the highest number of Foreign Funds.

If you are NERVOUS,
is time for you to read this book : INTELLIGENT INVESTOR .

ON 'MR. MARKET'
AND 'MARGIN OF SAFETY'

Thursday, July 03, 2008

FOREIGN FUND PANIC SELLING ?


Today Bursa suspended the whole day due to 'Hardware failure'.

Market news is saying Bursa stop trading is due to
FOREIGN FUND PREPARE TO SELL DOWN THE MARKET.

If this is true, then they are 'panic selling' or 'Take advantage to profit from Market'

I believe their main purpose is to take advance to profit from an unstabilised market, & they will succeed due to the following factors:-

  1. The volume in Bursa Malaysia is thin. They just need to throw a portion of their shareholding to push down the Market.
  2. The political uncertainty & face -off between Keadilan & Umno make market participant nervous, market confidence & sentiment is at lowest level.
  3. Global bear market, Inflation fear, high Oil price scare off Investor to enter market.
With all this fear factors in place, this BIG SHARKS will create FEARS by throwing shares into market to push down Index. The other small players will follow to sell, Bank force selling added pressure to the Market. SHARES PRICE CONTINUE TO SLIDE.

The same person ( Foreign Funds) will wait at the bottom to pick-up good undervalue stocks.

SURE OR NOT ???

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

受通脹外圍影響微 4大內需股可長捧

【明報專訊】美國經濟欠佳、大陸通脹與宏調肆虐,幾乎每個產業都受影響,唯獨內需股增長依然強勁,蒙牛(2319)雨潤(1068)、百盛(3368)、新百貨(0825)值得留意。蒙牛及雨潤所在的產業進行大整合,兩者憑藉優秀的經營能力、穩健的財力,可以趁機擴大版圖,長遠增長前景秀麗;百貨業在所有零售營運模式中最安全,擁有全國性百貨網絡的百盛和新百貨尤為穩健,股巿大調整,兩者估值愈來愈吸引。

蒙牛 有力成為行業霸主

內地奶業將進行大洗牌,奶業的行業門檻已提高,現有業者要建新廠,日產能最少要200噸奶,並要保證30%的原奶供應;現有廠房要增設生產線,每一次起碼要增加100噸(每日),並要保證可獲75%的原奶供應,此條件小廠難以壯大,蒙牛乳業可乘機擴大版圖。

從各方面看,蒙牛都最大條件成為最後霸主︰一、經營能力業內最強。去年純利率4.39%,同業伊利去年虧損1.14 億元,光明乳業純利率僅2.59%,輸給蒙牛,表明公司有能力加價、品牌具威力。事實上,公司在液體奶的巿場佔有率,已由前年36.2%提升到40.7%;二、財力穩健,截至去年底,公司有淨現金19.47 億元人民幣。

蒙牛最大的成本是原奶,去年原奶價升,業界叫苦連天。券商星展唯高達指出,原奶價格過去兩個月穩定,保持在每公斤2.8至2.9元人民幣,原奶生產旺季將至(5月至8月),預料價格會再回落,有利蒙牛。

據彭博社資料,蒙牛2008年預測巿盈率23.6倍,上周收巿報21.6元。

雨潤 料可受惠豬價回落

內地屠宰業亦將洗牌,內地生豬屠宰廠數目多規模小,少於10個刀手的屠宰場比例高達八成,衛生情參差,政府有意整頓。新《生豬屠宰條例》8月1日生效,新條例對發牌予屠宰廠有更嚴格的規定,由現時授權地方政府發牌,改為日後由省級政府處理發牌,這大大減慢新競爭者增加的速度。生產現代化、規模龐大的雨潤,可慢慢清剿弱者,擴大版圖。

去年業績顯示,雨潤的營運效益正不斷改善︰一、營運成本佔收入比例由7.1% ,下跌到6.3%;二、存貨周轉日減少13 天,應收帳周轉日減少4 天;三、產品種類由980 種增加至1170 種,能滿足更多不同需求;四、分銷渠道中,成本最高的第3方分銷商,所佔比重由41.5%下跌到34.7%;五、截至2007年底,雨潤生豬屠宰產能增加385萬頭,達1400萬頭,下游深加工肉製品年產能達21.8萬噸,較06年增加5萬噸。

雨潤截至去年底,淨現金達8.7億元,財政穩健,是擴展版圖的彈藥。豬肉價格上升,是行業一大風險。隨豬價上升,政府又採取更多政策扶助豬農,預計下半年將有更多生豬應市,8、9月時供應會顯著增加,紓緩豬價升勢,有利雨潤。據彭博社資料,雨潤2008年預測巿盈率20.4倍,上周收巿報12.7元。

新百貨百盛 風險最低

內需股中,百貨業的風險最低。公司過半以上收入來自攤位租戶,租戶要交最低租金或按收入比例抽成,現金流穩定,主要存貨及人工由租戶負責,風險更低。擁有全國性網絡的百盛和新百貨,風險就更低,因為著名品牌更願意透過其廣闊網絡,把自己的商品打入內地巿場,亦因網點多,可彌補不足。

據中期報告,截至去年底,新百貨於全國營運31間百貨店,開業不足兩年的,起碼14間以上,按照行業規律,一間營運得法的百貨公司,兩到三年便可以收支平衡,這批新店,若能大規模轉虧為盈,可為集團帶來巨大增長。

新百貨另一獨特之處,是背後有整個新世界系支持,該系內地業務網龐大,以新世界中國(0917)為例,土地儲備超過1700萬平方米,對新百貨來說,是一大幫助。最明顯的例子,是鎖定黃金地段,現時新百貨的樓面中,近40%是租自同系公司,約10%自己擁有,其餘向外租賃。

新百貨2008年預測巿盈率28倍,公司有淨現金39.32億元,從股價中剔走淨現金,公司業務巿盈率僅18倍。

百盛是本港上巿百貨股中,分店最多的,達41間,母公司金獅集團經營百貨業逾20年,基礎穩健。今年首季同店銷售較去年同期下跌近4個百分點至15.3%,巿場失望,股價不斷調整,已較高位下跌40%,2008年預測巿盈率29倍,遠較之前吸引。

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

A DREAM COME TRUE ?



I hope this is not just a dream:-

1) The fighting between Keadilan & Umno will be short and settled by end of the year. This political crisis have to be solved FAST enough to minimised the damaged done on Malaysia Economy.

2) A new MCA leadership must be brave enough to abandon UMNO, joint hand with Pakatan to rebuild a better Malaysia.

3) The new Malaysia Government is a pragmatic Govt that formulate policies only on MERIT, PRODUCTIVITY & EFFICIENCY.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Something on I-CAP : A CLOSE END FUND


Icap is a close end fund listed in KLSE. It's managed by Mr. Tan Teng Boo, a famous, successful and highly respected fund manager.

I knew him (or rather I-Capital) from newspaper in year 2000, I subscript to his weekly after that until now. I find his analysis is one of the best in Malaysia if no the best.

I-CAP listed in Malaysia in Oct 2005, the shares price has constantly beat KLCI, went up from IPO of 1.00 to highest at 2.80 in Jan 2008. It has coming down to 1.96 on 27/6/08.

Because I-Cap is solely invest in KLSE, therefore it's performance always tract the performance of KLCI. Due to Mr Tan Teng Boo excellent performance in picking the right stocks, I-Cap NAV (net assets value) has gone up 84% up to date (in less than 3 years). An annualised return of 25% since listed up to today.

For retail investors that do not want to spend time to study/learn all the investment theories & philosophy, and prefer to invest in equity market directly & avoid unit trusts, I-Cap is the idea investment choice, but the timing to invest is vital for better returns.

Buy & Hold in I-Cap for long term will not give you the highest returns, suggest the following for you to maximise the investment returns in I-Cap :-

  1. I-Cap always traded at premium due to it's excellent record, i.e it's market price always higher than the NAV. In a prolong bear market, when market sentiment at the weakest level, it's shares price may dip below the NAV due to panic selling of it's holder. a 5% discount to it's NAV offer the investor a good opportunity to buy good fundamental undervalue stock via I-Cap. You get 5% discount from market price for many good stocks under the selection of I-Cap. A good deal!
  2. If we cant get I-Cap under the above condition (5% discount in prolong bear market), i.e. the market price never dip below the NAV (maybe all I-cap holder are Tan Teng Boo strong fans), then I suggest the interested party to wait for the market to bottom, when optimism return to shares market, when equity market started to bullish again, this is the time we re-enter the equity market via I-Cap, even we have to pay at premium of less than 8% . I-Cap will surge again because it's portfolio are comprise of good quality fundamental/under value stocks. this is the stocks that will out perform the market will the bull return.
  3. To enjoy highest returns in closed end fund (I-Cap), buy & hold is not the right strategy, we need to exit it when market is in prolong bull run, when market sentiment are hot, KLCI keep breaking record high, and the I-Cap shares price is in record premium of more than 20% over it's NAV. SELL it. The price will come down eventually when market correct.

Friday, June 27, 2008

MUIIND - A CONVERSATION

Giap Seng : For Parkson at RM5.00, it is very attractive for me, and the business in China promise good prospects.

For MUIIND, what is the actual attractive points for you to hold on to MUIIND? You used to compared MUIIND with warrant, however, you do not touch on the strength or attractiveness of the business model of MUIIND (It has a lot of business, eg hotel, consumer, property, food, investment bank, etc).

For a stock to be qualified to be in the children education portfolio, I wish to listen to your views on MUIIND especially. I myself had gone through several articles in the Icapital, and to me, MUIIND is still a company going through re-structuring to bring down the debt. Hence, to you, is MUIIND just a turn-around play, or you actually see something which makes it qualified to be your long-term holding in the children education portfolio?

KC : I have stop updating my son's portfolio, but I still keep Muiind, lionDiv & Parkson in his portfolio.

My son's portfolio is a long term fund, I like
Muiind for it's valuable assets. To be honest, I do not do the analysis but depend on I-Cap write-up. At price of just 26 sen, it enable us to participate in a Conglomerate that owned many assets in local & overseas. (please note that it's book value is not reflective of the current market value, but at cost) The price has factor in the negative side of the Group, when Muiind finished it's job of painful restructuring, the real values of the Company will emerge.

All are about Risk & Rewards calculation, the returns will be huge if the price double in 3 years.

P/S: This is only my own opinion, I do believe you are better than me in Equity Investment, you are most welcome to express your opinion/view on any stock here!

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

鐵礦石價倍升 加劇全球通脹,加價反映新興市場需求仍強

明報專訊】澳洲礦業巨擘力拓(Rio)與中國最大鋼鐵生產商寶鋼達成協議,破紀錄地把鐵礦石加價接近1倍,不僅衝擊了全球鋼鐵業,也加劇了市場對全球通脹加劇的憂慮。英國《金融時報》便指出,今次協議意味汽車和其他鋼鐵機械產品的成本勢將上升,進一步推高全球通脹

在力拓與寶鋼達成的08年度鐵礦石協議中,寶鋼接受鐵礦石最高加價96.5%,加幅明顯高於全球最大鐵礦石生產商巴西淡水河谷今年初與中國企業 達致的約七成漲幅。市場預計,澳洲另一家鐵礦石生產商必和必拓(BHP),也將緊接力拓,於稍後顯著加價,而且加幅可能更高。《日本經濟新聞》還稱,新日 本制鐵及其他日本大型鋼鐵廠商,亦已同意接受力拓調升08年度澳洲鐵礦砂合約價格1倍的要求,顯示鐵礦石價格升勢不但強勁,且有愈升愈烈之勢。

澳企抬價 中日鋼鐵商無奈接受

《金融時報》指出,今次力拓與寶鋼達成加價協議,反映儘管美國經濟放緩,但中國、印度和中東等新興市場對商品的需求仍持續強勁。BHP的鋼鐵及煤炭部主管Marcus Randolph便說:「加價正反映這些(商品)資產的未來潛在價值。」花旗分析師Tobias Levkovich更道﹕「商品推動通脹的風險,正有增無減。」

資源及商品價格急升,即時反映在其成品之上,刺激全球通脹進一步升溫、削弱企業盈利。全球第4大鋼鐵生產商n 以反映原材料價格上升帶來的壓力;至於內地的熱軋鋼板現貨價,今年以來亦已上升接近三成,達到每噸740美元水平。

轉嫁成本 韓鋼鐵商調高成品價

分析家指出,鋼鐵商勢將成本上漲,轉嫁給建築公司及汽車生產商等客戶。日本經濟財政特任大臣大田弘子昨指出:「原物料價格已經對企業獲利造成負面影響,尤其是中小型企業。」

事實上,鐵礦石、煤炭和其他原材料成本的上升,正令到全球鋼鐵價格以至整體通脹大幅上漲,也令到鋼鐵買家,尤其是建築行業用戶對此愈來愈不滿,土耳其、意大利、印度和俄羅斯等也都因此出現示威和罷工,導致當局要為凍結鋼鐵價格而立法。為了減民怨抑通脹,不少國家只好各出其謀,例如印度便向國內的鐵礦石出口商,徵收15%的高出口稅率,變相鼓勵多將鐵礦石內銷,減少對外國鐵礦石入口的依賴。

今年商品價格升勢強勁,紐約油價昨連續第3天上升,升至每桶138美元水平,逼近歷史高位;至於提煉自鐵礦石的銅,紐約商品期貨交易所(COMEX)的期銅價格,自年初至今亦上升超過兩成,倫敦金屬交易所(LME)的期鋁價格,今年也累計上升約25%。

撰文:基斯羅