曾準確預測二千科網股泡沫爆破及最近的次貸泡沫的耶魯大學 學者席勒認為，美國 股市距離見底仍很遠。
他指出，參考格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的計算方法，套用到標普500指數，目前的格雷厄姆市盈率約為15倍。由1881年至今的標普500指數，得出格雷厄姆市盈率的平均值為 16.3倍。戰後，這個市盈率數值在1977至1984年間也曾跌穿10倍；在1982年的7月及8月，更曾低見6.6倍。
他表示，在今次金融海嘯中，若格雷厄姆市盈率再度低見10倍和6.6倍，意味道指(上周五收市為8,451.19)將分別跌至6000點和4000點的水平，即美股可能再跌30％至50％。(華爾街日報 )
(明報)10月12日 星期日 21:20
2 comments:
Hello kc, long time never visit yr blog liaoo.. yes, yr liondiv n lionind is a FA stock but as i said in my blog, share mkt is not science in "short term" , though u r wise n sense but sometimes u need to think of what other ppl think , what those unsense sellers will do in panic selling mkt , u know it is far below its fair value, but so what ? those unsense sellers dont think that way !
They will sell it @ whatever price either due to force selling or panic selling , hence.. we need to take those unsense factors into our consideration too.
best regards.
Many Thanks! Samgoss.
How true !
I admit Mr Market is unsense & emotional, sometime it's scary!
Your blog teach me a lot on investing. & so informative.
When collecting Liondiv, I acted like scrap collector hope to profit from recycling. he!he!
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