Friday, October 24, 2008

Capital flight in all Regional Markets

Global credit meltdown started from the superpower America. All assets in the region being dump by the Foreign Funds.

We can see the daily drop of all regional market by 3-11%, it repeat almost weekly. I believe it will not end here because the Foreign holding is huge, it's so huge that it may need to take months to finish their selling.

Our central bankers in Asia is SMARTER now after learning the experience in 1997/8 financial crisis. Why go in now to support the currency ? They most likely to leave the currency drop so that the Foreign Fund will get lesser when they convert to USD in Capital Flight. They will go ultimately anyway, why support the currency for the Foreign Fund to get more?

Same goes to the equity market! Why go in to support the shares price ? Just let it drop & let the Foreign Fund get lesser & lesser when they dump our equity. They have to finished their selling in this few months, then just let the price drop. Why the Govt have to support the price for the Foreign Fund to gain ?

It is better to wait for the Foreign Fund to finish their selling first, wait a bit longer for another few months, then the Asian Govt only started to go into the equity market to support the price.
A V shape rebound then is more sustainable and it will work to our advantage.

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