Thursday, December 30, 2010

狭隘的政治目的

政府首席秘书西迪违反一般的礼节,在没有事先知会雪州大臣的情况下,就透过媒体擅自宣布擢升古斯林。国阵中央急于夺回雪州,为了狭隘的政治目的.

Najib & BN Govt should respect the Voter's rights in choosing the Pakatan Rakyat State Govt.
It's a shame by using 'sabotage' tactics to destroy the current Selangor State Govt and neglected the interest of the people of Selangor.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Malaysiakini.com

雪州号召集体祈祷展现民众力量

受促召开紧急州议会否决古斯林


雪州秘书人选风波继续延烧,虽然雪州苏丹秘书声称获得苏丹首肯的争议性雪州宗教局总监古斯林(Mohd Khusrin Munawi)铁定出任州秘书,决定不能受到质疑;但是雪州政府却丝毫不肯让步,并号召在全州举行集体祈祷会,试图透过汇集群众力量,作为与联邦政府博弈的后盾。

另一方面,雪州议员助理协会也促请雪州政府召开紧急州议会,以动议否决中央政府插手雪州事务,委任古斯林为雪州秘书,避免古斯林成为雪州民联政府的肉中刺。

该会主席阿都拉查声称,必须召开紧急雪州议会来保护雪州人民的利益,以阻止巫统及国阵利用皇室来夺权雪州政权。

原任秘书3月20日才退休

此外,雪州政府也驳斥雪州苏丹秘书莫哈末慕尼尔(Mohamad Munir Bani)归咎雪州政府太迟提呈州秘书人选填补州秘书空缺的说法。

雪州大臣秘书法依卡发表文告指出,没有任何条文规定州秘书的委任必须在在某个期限内进行,更何况原任州秘书蓝里玛目的任期本来是到2011年3月20日才截至。

获得政府首席秘书西迪擢升为雪州秘书的古斯林的任期是在明年1月1日生效。

邓章沁领导三人遴选委会

法依卡也指出,雪州政府早在11月27日,根据公共局服务惯例,成立遴选州秘书的委员会。有关的委员会是由雪州议长邓章钦以及两名行政议员,即哈山阿里及西维尔所组成。遴选委员会并对6名获得州秘书办公室及人力局所推荐的候选人进行面试。

遴选委员会较后拟出入围者的名单,而雪州大臣也在12月17日把有关的名单呈交给雪州苏丹,以填补州秘书一职。

开启透明遴选高官的风气

雪州政府指出,虽然成立遴选委员会并非是一项硬性规定,但是民联政府已经开启了透明、自由及负责任遴选高官的风气,州务大臣并未使用本身的特权遴选高官。

雪州民联政府也对州秘书人选出现争议感到遗憾,并认为一些有机心者为了达到本身的政治目而利用皇室。法依卡点出,古斯林担任州秘书的风波,是接踵在巫统宣布首相纳吉继续执掌雪州巫统之后发生。

雪州民联也要求雪州人民保持冷静,勿做出任何无法协助寻找最佳解决方案的挑衅言论。

大臣官邸明日傍晚集体祈祷

雪州民联政府也鼓励回教组织及非回教组织,在州内根据本身的信仰进行集体祈祷,祷求上苍赐力量及智慧给雪州苏丹及雪州领导层以解决这项误会。

雪州大臣卡立已经在其面子书上,邀请民众前往大臣官邸,出席明日傍晚6点半所举行的祷佑雪州安宁集体祈祷会。

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

基金輸錢 但基金經理可發財

基金輸錢 但經理可發財
2010年12月14日

【明報專訊】有一個晚上,我和一伙豬朋們聚會,席間說及某位著名股評人,我說:「他寫得頗為不錯,而且在進步。」請注意我的用辭,是「頗為不錯」,而非「很好」,雖然,這評語在我的口中,已是很不容易的了。我的用辭一向精確,但常常遭人斷章取義,也是很沒奈何的事。

朋友的回答是:「這位仁兄成立了一個基金,在金融海嘯時輸光了。」

我再答:「我知道他在金融海嘯後買了樓,證明他發了財。沒有可能基金執笠,而他則發財,第一個解釋是他買的股票和基金買的不一樣,第二個解釋是他在基金中偷了錢,而這兩個解釋是等價的:如果他不是在基金中偷錢,為甚麼他會和基金買不同的股票?」

通常由周顯大師說出來的答案,就是結論,而且是定論,就像是終審庭的判決,不能推翻,除非是人大釋法啦!

經理收「出場費」 眼光未必出眾

這故事又一次證明了我在《周顯發達指南》中的名句:「買基金的是豬」,因為買股票買錯了,只能怨自己的眼光不好,但是基金買錯了,是給別人害死,這 好比找人代打麻雀,這個人可能牌章比你還差,也有可能偷籌碼,也有可能同其他一至三家串通打籠通,而且他還收你「出場費」,這樣那樣之下,倒不如自己落場 打好過了。

既然「買基金的是豬」,政府和銀行強sell基金,也就有如焗賭。而在中國的傳統文化當中,「焗賭」是比「強姦」更為嚴重的罪行,所以我們可以說,政府和銀行「輪姦」了香港市民,這應該是恰當的說法。

另外,這篇稿打至半途,電腦無故關機,因此再寫了一遍,寫得好痛苦也。

撰文:周顯

Monday, December 13, 2010

KINSTEEL & PERWAJA SELL DOWN BY MAJU HOLDING

Kinsteel & It's subsidiary Perwaja is facing heavy sell down by shares in Maju Holding.

Both shares price started to fall from end Nov untill today closing. A check from Bursa indicated that all shares are sell down from Kenanga pledged securities accounts for Maju Holding.

Is this a force selling by Kenanga ? Has the force selling completed or more to come ?

IF investor in this 2 counter has cut loss strategy in place, then the losses will be caped at higher price level then now.

Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965
Reference No CU-101213-2D816
Company Name
:
KINSTEEL BHD
Stock Name
:
KINSTEL
Date Announced
:
13/12/2010

Name
:
Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.
Address
:
Level 21, Maju Tower, 1001 Jalan Sultan Ismail, 50250 Kuala Lumpur.
NRIC/Passport No/Company No.
:
40444-V
Nationality/Country of incorporation
:
Malaysia
Descriptions
(Class & nominal value)
:
Ordinary Shares of RM0.20 each
Name & address
of registered
holder
:
Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd.
(Pledged securities account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.)

Details of changes
Currency
:
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
Disposed
26/11/2010
110,000

Disposed
29/11/2010
384,100

Disposed
30/11/2010
168,000

Disposed
01/12/2010
671,800

Disposed
02/12/2010
436,100

Disposed
03/12/2010
1,850,000

Disposed
06/12/2010
2,440,000

Disposed
08/12/2010
2,283,900

Disposed
09/12/2010
3,110,000














Circumstances
by reason of which change has occurred
:
Open-market sale.
Nature of
interest
:
Direct
Direct (units)
:
176,368,700
Direct (%)
:
18.59
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
:
0
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
:
0
Total no of securities after change
:
176,368,700
Date of notice
:
10/12/2010

--------------------------------------------------------------
Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965
Reference No PH-101213-52964
Company Name
:
PERWAJA HOLDINGS BERHAD
Stock Name
:
PERWAJA
Date Announced
:
13/12/2010

Name
:
Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.
Address
:
Level 21, Maju Tower
1001 Jalan Sultan Ismail
50250 Kuala Lumpur
NRIC/Passport No/Company No.
:
40444-V
Nationality/Country of incorporation
:
Incorporated in Malaysia
Descriptions
(Class & nominal value)
:
Ordinary shares of RM1.00 each
Name & address
of registered
holder
:
Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd.
Pledged Securities Account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.

Details of changes
Currency
:
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
Disposed
02/12/2010
50,000

Disposed
03/12/2010
70,000

Disposed
06/12/2010
127,200

Disposed
08/12/2010
300,000

Disposed
09/12/2010
474,200






























Circumstances
by reason of which change has occurred
:
Open-market sale
Nature of
interest
:
Direct
Direct (units)
:
23,978,600
Direct (%)
:
4.282
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
:
365,416,500
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
:
65.253
Total no of securities after change
:
389,395,100
Date of notice
:
10/12/2010

Remarks
1) Notification received on 13 December 2010

2) The direct interest of 23,978,600 shares are held by Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. pledged securities account for Maju Holdings Sdn. Bhd.

The indirect interest of 365,416,500 shares comprise of:
(a) 209,100,000 shares held by Kinsteel Bhd
(b) 30,000 shares held by MH Consultancy Services Sdn. Bhd.
(c) 356,500 shares held by Ipmuda Berhad
(d) 30,000 shares held by Edaran Maju-Muda Sdn. Bhd.
(e) 2,020,000 shares held by Equal Concept Sdn. Bhd.
(f) 153,880,000 shares held by Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. pledged securities account for Equal Concept Sdn. Bhd.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Window of Opportunity for Share Speculator

Malaysia is at a very dangerious position now as Najib Govt has opt for BIG SPENDING ON MEGA PROJECTS instead of the Policies Reform on the many structure weakness in our economy policy.

We may see Malaysia GDP improve in next 1 or 2 years, but we risk the Country going bankrupt in year 2020.

The out look for Malaysia Economy will not be good & this short term benefits & Feel Good sentiment is actually an opportunity of window for market speculator. ( from now to next GE)

Series of M&A, Corporate deal in GLC will help to push up market volume & indexes, attract more market participation, retail & institution.

Market timer, trend follower will be the main winner, Long term buy & hold investor will be the loser.

Enjoy the party, make more profits, then don't forget to exit the market when the party end.

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Keck Seng : Is Bonus Issue A Bonus ?

After making a huge gain from disposal of Parkway, many investor expect Keck Seng to announce some good news.

Keck Seng finally announce it will giving out bonus issue of 1 to 2 in it's latest announcement.

It's share price has react positively to reach all time high of 6.50 in Wed.

Bonus issue actually is not bonus to investor, it has in fact increase the share base of the company but the market cap is still the same. it has 0 effects on the value of the company.

But i still 'hold' on to Keck Seng, hopefully the real GOOD news will be announce later.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Is Our Retail Investor Coming Back To Stock Market ?

Lately I have met with two different officer in two Investment Bank, one work in OSK, another one work in PBB. They all have claim that the retail investor has coming back to Local Stock market, actively trading shares..

I believe so !

The retail investor will come back after local stock market make good gain for past 2 years. The active market will make the stock market more attractive to them, a good alternative other than FD.

Now the property's price has break record high level & it's difficult to go higher, the fund will definitely divert to stock market.

When the real economy not performing well, usually the businessman will mobilized the extra/idle fund to invest into stock.

SO OUR LOCAL STOCK MARKET, BURSA MALAYSIA SOON WILL BREAK THE 1,500 POINT & MOVE HIGHER. NEVER LOOK BACK.

BUT IF YOU WANT TO GET GOOD RETURNS, THEN 2ND & 3RD LINER WILL BE THE IDEAL COUNTER.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

STEEL , Rise with a HOPE (DREAM)

We can see the rotation play in the market,

The Steel Counter has started to move up after Property, Plantation & Contruction Counter has risen.

The reason or excuse for the Steel Counter to move is simple, i.e Steel counter will benefit from all the implementation of the Mega Projects under the 2011 budget.

BUT, JUST BE REALISTIC, NEVER HOPE FOR THE SURGE LIKE YEAR 2008 WHERE THE STEEL PRICE HAS RISEN LIKE ROCKET. THE STEEL PRICE GO UP ALMOST 100% WITHIN 1 YEAR PERIOD.

No more ! The year 2008 event is historic & it happen once in a century, the price surge in 2008 is mainly due to structural problem in supply & demand.

And now the situation is totally different:- 1)the China effects has reduce due to policy shift from export to local consumption and no longer focus on low cost production, 2) The world is over supply in Steel.

I do not see there are big increase in Steel Price, most likely it will be go up or down within a tight range.

Monday, October 18, 2010

BIG PROJECTS, SMALL CAP

Investor always make a mistake, they look at share price, but never try to compute the market cap.

A stock price at 0.20 is not necessary is a small cap company if their share base is big.
A stock price at 0.50 may be a small cap company if their share base is small , let say 300 mil shares. ie the market cap is only 150 mil (0.50 x 300 mil shares.)

Now I am convince that The Najib Govt is spending BIG in Infra Projects.
All 'NEM', 'ETP' is just a slogan, the actual intention is to give out more & more SUPER MEGA PROJECTS.

A small retail investor like me, no need to follow the Fund Manager to go into BIG CAP company.

We can make better returns by go into small cap counter take will benefited from the BIG Projects.

The returns can be easily 50%- 100%.

This is indeed the ADVANTAGE of being small.

My bet: ZELAN, IJM-WC, MALTON, KBUNAI, AZRB

Saturday, October 09, 2010

Super Bull, Bull or Mini Bull, It's BULL

I am a BIG BULL, no Bullshit, whether it's currency war or liquidity push market, Asean Market will be the one that flushed with HOT CHEAP Money, from Developed Countries.

This hot, cheap money push up the property assets in this region, & now the property price has almost peaked in this region.

The MONEY has started to divert to STOCK MARKET.

THIS BULL TREND HAS JUST BEGAN.

IF you have no exposure in STOCK due to certain reason, you are going to see your CURRENCY NOTE depreciating in term of purchasing power.

Enjoy the bull & take benefits from it, this is a way to grow your wealth.

HERE IN MALAYSIA,, THE TREND IS OBVIOUS :-

PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE & PROJECTS.

OF COURSE I AM REFERRING TO STOCK COUNTER.

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

SUPER BIG DEAL IN SUPER BIG PROJECT

Malaysia BN"S Govt will award SUPER BIG PROJECTS which will benefits some infrastructure companies.

The GEM OF THE MANY PROJECTS IS THE PRIME LAND IN KL. ( Sg Buloh & Sg besi land bank)

GUESS WHO WILL GET IT ! their stock will fly when the awards announce.

YEAR 2010/2011 WILL BE THE year of SUPER BIG DEAL. never in Malaysia History.


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DAP says UEM, MRT, YTL deals show NEM ‘nothing but rhetoric’

Pua: In fact Gamuda has already told equity analysts that it is 80 per cent certain of being awarded the bulk of the project, and this would be because they are the only commercial party who have been in consultation with the Government as well as Pemandu to develop the entire plan for the project.
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 6 — The DAP suggested today that the Najib administration’s commitment to open competition under the New Economic Model (NEM) was “nothing but rhetoric,” citing as examples of patronage the MRT project, the proposal by Asas Serba to take over highway concessions, Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary’s bid to buy UEM and YTL’s involvement in the high-speed rail link to Singapore.

“Should the government decide to proceed with any of the above projects or privatisation of assets without any form of open competition, it will not only reflect the fact that the NEM is nothing but rhetoric, but it has no sincerity in wanting to promote “dynamic and efficient markets” or isn’t serious about “tapping new sources of growth,” the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) party’s national publicity secretary Tony Pua said in a statement today.

The Malaysian Insider reported yesterday that state asset manager Khazanah Nasional Berhad is looking at tycoon Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary’s financial track record as it mulls his offer to buy the UEM Group Bhd, which runs the profitable Plus expressways concessionaire, for the amount of RM15.6 billion.

UEM has substantial stakes in 8 public listed companies, and is prized for its 38.5 per cent ownership of PLUS Expressways Bhd, 28.7 per cent of Time dotCom Bhd, 32.0 per cent of Faber Group Bhd and 77.1 per cent of UEM Land Bhd. It also owns the Penang Bridge Sdn Bhd as well as Cement Industries Malaysia Bhd. As at the end of 2009, the net assets of UEM Group Bhd amounted to RM12.3 billion.

The Malaysian Insider also reported on October 4 that Syed Mokhtar had asked the government to sell 1,200ha of Rubber Research Institute (RRI) land in Sungai Buloh and the police training centre in Jalan Semarak.

The government is now considering the award of Malaysia’s largest infrastructure project to date, that is the Greater KL Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system which is expected to cost up to RM46 billion with a Gamuda Bhd and MMC Bhd joint venture being touted as the “winners” of the project.

“In fact Gamuda has already told equity analysts that it is 80 per cent certain of being awarded the bulk of the project, and this would be because they are the only commercial party who have been in consultation with the Government as well as Pemandu to develop the entire plan for the project. “Similarly, YTL Corporation Bhd is expected to “win” the project to develop the high-speed train service between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore due to its involvement with Pemandu at the “laboratory” stage of the ETP,” Pua said today.

Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin had also admitted that the Cabinet is mulling over the RM50 billion proposal by Asas Serba whom Pua claimed was linked to Tan Sri Halim Saad to take over all highway concessions in Malaysia.

Pua said the proposal should have been rejected outright for it was “completely without basis, merit and it was completely unsolicited”.

International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed had said that getting a tender through direct negotiation is “unfair”, to Malaysian students at the University of Melbourne on October 2.

He said that only high-security projects involving the military and defence were exempted from open tender.

But the slew of government assets and projects being directly negotiated by the administration which were cited by Pua today appeared to contradict Mustapa’s assertion.

Mustapa had said in Melbourne that “open tender means more competition, greater transparency, no corruption. And that’s what the public wants. And we are listening to the public.”

Pua also pointed out that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak had emphasised that “we can no longer tolerate practices that support the behaviour of rent-seeking and patronage.”

“The direct and opaque award of these contracts to these connected parties flies in the face of the Prime Minister’s call for ‘inclusiveness’ and to eradicate ‘rent-seeking and patronage’,” he said.

He urged the prime minister to ensure and reiterate in the upcoming 2011 budget announcement that “all government projects, large and small as well as all government owned assets which are to be privatised will be tendered openly and competitively instead of being awarded on a directly negotiated basis”.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Learn More On Hong Kong & Learn From The Success Story/Skill





Due to the my plan to Invest more in Hong Kong market, I have start searching for the Hong kong stock via some HK web site & subscript to 2 internet based financial daily, read some books written by the successful investor ie 周顯 & 曹仁超.

Both are successful investor & their story will enhance our investing skill & knowledge.

YET THEY ARE DIFF IN INVESTING METHOD.


Sunday, September 26, 2010

Take Position to benefit from the SHIFT from West to East,

The continue weakness in US$ & the surge in Asian currency has again confirm the SHIFT OF FUND from The West to The East. Esp the Asian + 3.

An active investor should be able to notice this Megatrend & take position in advance to reap benefits from this SHIFT.

Diversify your fund to invest in this region is a must in order to get max returns for your investment. Singapore & HongKong market is the most important market in this region, Singapore is the financial centre in Asean & Hong Kong is a gateway to China. You must not miss this two in your investment diversification. Allocate atleast 30% of your fund into this market.

Back at home in Malaysia, The Govt have just announce it's Economic Transformation Programme (ETF), the development focus will be in Greater KL & Nusantara in Johor.

PROPERTY & INFRASTRUCTURES PLAYER WILL BE THE MAIN BENEFICIARY FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT.

I have take a position in UEMLAND, LIONIND, BSTEAD, TA GLOBAL & DNP.

THE COMPANIES THAT HAVE EXPANDED TO CHINA & THE REGION IS ANOTHER BENEFICIARY FROM THE SHIFT.

AIRASIA, PADINI, PARKSON ARE ALREADY IN THE RADAR SCREEN OF INSTITUTIONAL PLAYER.

While the smaller player like FACB, Salcon, need time to prove their achievement in China Story'
You will be rewarded if they succeeded in their venture in China.

THE PROPERTY MARKET IN ASIA HAS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH IN PASS ONE YEAR, THE FUNDS WILL DIVERT TO THE STOCK MARKET AGAIN & THE BULL WILL BE BACK & SURGE NEW HIGH !

INCREASE YOUR POSITION WHEN MARKET PULL BACK & LET THE PROFITS RUN.

Monday, August 23, 2010

ASIA, ASEAN, PROPERTY, STOCK, COMMODITY

The US & Europe led advance economy is remained low growth.

The US's Fed continue it's loose monetary policy & continue the almost zero interest rate & export it's cheap cost USD.

The Chinese Govt has started to reduce their USD holding & diversify into other countries' currency. Who dare to hold USD anymore !

The hedge fund or speculator can easily borrow USD with low interest rate & invest in emerging market, esp China led ASEAN.

Now we see the inflow of western cheap, hot fund into ASEAN+3 property & stock market.

The play up the property in ASIA ( esp South East Asia ), Chase up Equity.

The inflow of this hot money will kick-start a BULL run in ASEAN.

IF YOU ALREADY HAVE A POSITION IN STOCK,

'LET THE PROFIT RUN ' is the BEST STRATEGY.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Jamal was removed from 988 morning Talk Show- FURIOUS

Jamal was removed from this popular morning talk show.

The main reason was : 'FREEDOM OF SPEECH'.

HE ALWAYS SPEAK OUT THE PEOPLE'S VOICE TOWARDS BETTER GOVERNANCE, DEMOCRACY & JUSTICE.

THIS IS A POPULAR TALK SHOW AMONG THE CHINESE COMMUNITY.

NOW HE WAS REMOVED DUE TO POLITICAL INTERVENTION.

'FURIOUS' BEST DESCRIPT MY FEELING NOW.

WE DO NOT HAVE THE POWER TO STOP THIS HIDEN HAND OF THE RULING BN GOVT,

BUT WE (THE RAKYAT) DO HAVE A POWER TO CHANGE THE GOVT, BY VOTE

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Some thought on 'Dividend' on Icap.biz

Should or should not Icap distribute 'Dividend'

I dont think majority of the shareowner like 'discounted Price', I believe even TTB don't like it as well. This is the reason why he conducted the Investor days & introduce Value Investing this year.

The widening gap between NAV & Market price shown that many shareowner not welling to hold a shares for long term that receive nothing, illiquid & still facing the investment risk.

Should minimum dividend payment proposed ?

I believe a small dividend will not affect the performance of the fund ( Icap hold a lot of cash), yet it will give some attraction for some shareowner to hold on to their shares for longer term.

This will help to close the gap & give confidence to the existing shareowner & the investing public on the fund.

A premium to the existing fund also means that a shareowner can exit the fund with better profits if the need arise.

A high NAV is only an illusion if no distribution of profits to the shareowner.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

One Day Trip to ICAP AGM & Investor Day


video

video

This year's Icap AGM & Investor's day attracted a big crowd of people, an success & meaningful event.

This is an attempt by Icap to educate the investor on Value Investing, a proven excellent investing Philosophy.

Among the issues highlighted by the shareowner of Icap are:-

  1. The status on Icap invest in overseas market
  2. The appointment of Integraz CEO on board of Director
  3. The widening gap of Icap's NAV & Market price
  4. The issue of dividend policy on Icap

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Waiting for A Surprise - NEM Implementation

Now Najib's administration is at a cross road, they are either go ahead with the economic reform or do nothing & surrender to the UMNO's conservative warlord.

Now there are too many issue against them:-
  • The Chinese do not believe in UMNO & BN for reform.
  • FDI drop drastically & local fund continue to flow out to other countries.
  • The Govt in power are facing difficulty in attracting voter.
  • Malaysia's economy deteriorate & coming years economy not likely to be good.
To break all this negative factors, Najib's Govt is in a cross road & the only things that he need to do is to reform, for the nation & for his Govt survivor.

Watch up for Sept's NEM announcement !
IF, A BIG IF, Najib can push tro A real NEM reform, then Our Bursa will SURGE !
THE BN GOVT THEN WILL SURVIVE.

Monday, August 02, 2010

Expect more upside as Hot Money started to play

After 2 months of fear story, now the Cheap Hot Money started to move to Asia, including Malaysia.

While this may be a short play for Malaysia, but at least a good news for those accumulated at low 2 months ago.

This up trend will be small for Malaysia, but expect more excitement for those invested in HK market.

The return will be good for investor in HK.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

高價私有化如公社養豬

From mingpao.com - HK
高價私有化如公社養豬
2010年6月29日

免責聲明﹕本人絕對無意對任何股票或任何人物作出影射。下文只是說出一條 基本的炒股理論,內容是普遍性的,並非針對任何人或任何事件。

我有一些disciple,或可稱為follower,長期為我免費辦 事,條件是他們會不時詢問問題,或索取股票貼士。近來其中一人的問題是:如果一間公司開出超高價來私有化某股票,究竟內 裏有何玄機?

要知道,股票世界的大前提是:沒有老闆會派錢給小股東,因為上市的目的是為了賺錢,而非為了做善事。如果一隻股票的現價是1元,其資產價值是3元, 老闆只要出價1.8元,散戶已有八成即時的帳面利潤,多半會答應收購條件。不過,為什麼這老闆居然出價2.5元,這豈非白白送錢給散戶嗎?

答案有很多個,數也數不清,視乎個別公司而定。這裏只列出其中一個,以供參考:假設這公司的管理層並非大股東,當股價下跌至1元時,他的關連人士已 用了很長時間來密密收集大量股票。既然他們手上「有貨」,收購價愈高,他們的收獲也就愈高,因為這等於以公司的錢收購自己手上的股票而已。

第二個問題:高價私有化算是慷慨嗎?答案是:把原價3元的股票,用很長的時間,向下炒至1元,原有股東的利益已被剝削了,後來的高價私有化只是「公 社養豬」的故事罷了。在中國的共產時代,有一戶農民向公社提出要求,要改善居住環境,公社便把一窩豬養到他的家去。這令到他的家比之前更為烏煙瘴氣,於是 不停投訴,公社其後便把豬撤走,馬上成功地「改善」了這戶農民的居住環境。高價私有化正是同類的故事。

周顯

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

借春宵散貨的莊家

MING PAO -HK

說一個小故事給大家聽。

話說炒股票做莊,把股價炒高易如反掌,但要把炒高後的股票賣出,難度就很 高了,這叫「exit is always the problem」。

有一個市場莊家,當然也是大款名流之類,有一天,忽然想找女人。他的身家總也有十億八億吧,要找女人,當然不會像普羅「淫民」般,到旺角「襟鐘 仔」,或到深圳向西村找髮花,而是找了一個明星。究竟這明星有多「明」?答案是一夕春宵的代價是300萬,就是這個級數。

完事之後,這位女星當然對這位中年有為的男子大具好感,畢竟,付得起300萬的人不少,但肯付出的卻不多。試想想,如果一晚是300萬,同他交往一 年半載,八位數字是肯定能得到的。

不知是誰先開口的,總之,莊家給了女星一個股票號碼,對白是:「唔好買咁多,少少地玩下好啦。」女星口頭答應了,結果,自己鲻身兼且全家人鲻身,買 下了八位數字。喂,咁好的男人,咁好的機會,不鲻身,豈非好笨?這還不算,她告訴了她的友好,估計購買的數額是數倍於她。

結果很明顯,八位數字變成了六位數字(我沒寫錯,是8變6)。據說,莊家在這段期間,一共搞了七八個女星,都是中女之流,即是「肉價」既高,身家也 厚之類,就這樣,賣出了估計是兩億元的股票。

這故事有兩條註腳:

1. 現在流行的「靚模」並非他的對象,因為「靚模」沒錢,至少沒有七八位數字的身家。在「銀雞界」中,中女是最難找到客人的,因她們有錢,不肯平賣,卻又不夠 「嫩口」,只能賣名氣。正因如此,她們一年做不了一兩單「生意」,一旦有客人,便要捉住。

2. 我聽了此故事後,想了一想,對報料人說:「這位莊家出門去找女人時,會不會對太太說:『我出外是談生意、沽股票、出貨。』」

Monday, June 07, 2010

Fear ! Panic & Fear !

Kenmark case has shown us how fear & panic can affects investor decisions. Down from 85sen to 6sen within days. Panic cause dumping of shares, even broking house & bank incurred massive loss on fear & panic.

The same apply to overall stock market. A very sharp correction for all major stock markets.
Fear for another financial crisis, started from Europe debts crisis, China property price correction & etc.

I believe now is the time to pick up good undervalue stock. Accumulate slowly & wait.
Wait for the hot money to return to Asia. Otherwise where else they can go ?

Thursday, May 20, 2010

留得青山在, 哪怕没材烧. Take chips off the table, Preserve Your Capital.

In time of turbulent, It's most important to preserve your capital.

---------------------------------------------------------------
華富新聞:德國財長稱金融市場已“失控”
5月 20日 星期四 14:15 更新
“有效監管”,以確保市場正常運作。

朔伊布勒在接受英國《金融時報》採訪 時表示,“如果風險和回報完全失衡”,市場將不能正常運作。他呼籲實施產品標準化、監管場外交易,並採取措施“為所有市場參與者”提高透明度。另外,他還 支援徵收全球金融交易稅的新建議,稱這一建議應該在6月份加拿大舉行的20國集團(G20)峰會上得到“不偏不倚的討論”,如果屆時不能達成協議,歐盟(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)應考慮自行推進。

-----------------------------------------

國金最前線

[昔日新聞]
德禁無貨沽空 環球股市急跌
2010年5月20日

【明報專訊】德國金融監管機構周二晚突宣布,即日起禁止針對德國10大金 融股份以及歐元國債信貸違約掉期(CDS)的 「無貨沽空」行為,被視為德國對炒家的宣戰。德國的行動即時惹起市場恐慌,有投資者將此解讀為歐元區市場動盪惡化下的「絕望之舉」,市場擔心新措施會破壞 市場流動性,亞歐美股市全線急挫。

向炒家宣戰 被視「絕望之舉」

德國的決定,導致亞洲多國股市受壓,歐洲3大股市跌逾2%,美國早段亦跌逾1%,道指跌逾百點。信貸市場部分淡友忙於平淡倉,加上措施令市場流動性 減少,反映西歐主權違約風險的Markit iTraxx SOVX指數回落至120個基點水平。作為資金避難所的英債和德債價格迅速回升,10年期英債債息更跌至5個月低位。歐元在亞洲交易時段急瀉至1.214 的4年低位,其後大幅反彈1.3%,回升至1.236水平。

分析師Win Thin稱,市場急劇波動的一大原因是,市場認為德國只關注禁止沽空而非歐洲債務問題,顯示歐洲政策制訂者正病急亂投醫。有分析認為,隨覑德國加緊阻止金 融股和CDS的炒作沽空,淡友和炒家只能選擇向歐元埋手做淡,歐元有可能下試1.18水平,即1999年1月歐元實施交易時的價位。

歐元成淡友唯一狙擊對象

德國總理默克爾(Angela Merkel)昨在國會發表演說時直言,「歐元陷入危機」,正面臨歐盟成立以來最嚴峻的挑戰,若歐元失敗,則意味整個歐洲失敗。歐盟委員會主席巴羅左 (Jose Barroso)對德國阻止投機交易的努力表示支持,但德國事前沒就決定知會歐盟,卻惹來法國不滿。分析家認為德國將尋求把禁令推展到全歐洲,儘管全歐同 意採納的機會不大。

無貨沽空不同於一般的沽空行為,是指投資者沒有先借入證券,就直接在市場沽空。2008年美國金融海嘯期間,無貨沽空行為就備受指摘,現在又因希臘 債務危機的爆發而再度成為抨擊焦點。無貨沽空的好處是能夠節省交易員借入證券的支出,或者避免在許多人沽空時難以在市場借入證券,但正因成本低,無貨沽空 在大跌市下將加劇市場波動。

禁炒家買CDS賭債務違約

德國這次無貨沽空禁令的涵蓋範圍,包括德國10大金融機構,諸如德銀、安聯和德國商業銀行等。德國政府研判,金融股弱勢已令信貸成本上升。另外,德 國還禁止投資者購買歐元區國債CDS,除非他們擁有相關債券,意味只准買CDS來做對畄,不准買來炒。CDS本是保障投資者防止交易對手違約的保險單, 但不少炒家卻以此作為炒作工具,押注對方將違約。有關禁令昨起實施,直至2011年3月。德國官員稱,當局還準備提案延長禁令時間,以及考慮將禁令擴至所 有股份。

德國國內近期要求打擊區內投機炒作的情緒高漲,德國以至歐洲多國政客多次抨擊,區內金融問題惡化的罪魁禍首是國際炒家,尤其是他們通過CDS打賭弱 國違約。但有交易員稱,最近購買歐債CDS的,大多是對畄債券虧損的銀行,而非對畄基金。 德國官員亦承認禁令的實質打擊效果有效,因為大部分無貨沽空和CDS交易都在倫敦進行,不在該國監管範圍。



Friday, May 07, 2010

Why I SELL CSC at 1.99 - My reply

My reply to ccdev related to previous post:-

Hi CCdev,
For Steel Mill, it's capital intensive & profits margin is low.

That's why most of the Steel Counter are high in borrowing (except CSC)& their share's price is at unattractive low PE.

We also hardly see their price near it's NTA, in fact, most of the steel counter traded at price 20-30% below their NTA.

CSC's market price used to trade 45%-55% below NTA, because it's low profile management & inliquid volume.

It has sudden alive when they announce 20sen dividend in Feb this year, their price has moving up from huge discount below NTA to almost 2.00.

At price of 2.00, a valuation that equal to it's NTA, should be considered a very good price to se sell for a steel counter.

5:57 PM

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ccdev said...

bro,
how do you estimate it's fair value? you sue PE or some other FA number or TA?



My older post:
http://ssinvesting.blogspot.com/2010/04/csc-not-cheap-anymore.html

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Market Timing, SHOCKS around us

To be intelligent in stock investing, do not enter the market when there are shocks around us, Mr Market do not like shocks & uncertainty.

We could see the shocks is coming, it will happen very soon, anytime from now, some are already known, some is going to happen :

  1. First Shocks : Financial reform from US
  2. 2nd Shocks : The Europe Debts crisis is worsening
  3. 3rd shocks : China attacks on property speculation .
This will tricker market corrections & panic selling, wait & let the shocks over, then pick up value stock from bottom.

Another TV producer claims political meddling

From Malaysiakini.com

Another television producer - this time from RTM's TV2 - has claimed political interference in his work after his documentary on the Bakun Dam was taken off the air allegedly due to Barisan Nasional concerns over it chances in the upcoming Sibu by-election.

NONEIn a blog post today, the producer of the documentary, Chou Z Lam (left), revealed that the show was taken off the air under the direct instruction of RTM's chief broadcast executive Ibrahim Yahya.

"RTM's newsroom chief executive Jumat Engson said the documentary was taken off the air because it had sensitive elements that could be harmful (for BN) in the upcoming Sibu by-election as well as the Sarawak state elections," read the blog post.

Chou was instead told that the documentary would be postponed to 'a more appropriate time'.

Chou's allegation comes barely a week after award-winning journalist and producer Joshua Wong quit his position in ntv7 following what he said was constant political interference in his show, the last straw being a ban on discussing the recent Hulu Selangor by-election.

Chou's nine-part documentary was for a RTM2 programme entitled "Galeri Mandarin Nasional" and was supposed to have run from last Monday to May 7 in the 12.20pm to 12.30pm slot. The first two episodes have been aired.

'People first' or 'politics first'?

However, the following episode, to have been aired today, was taken off the air. It focussed on the social impact of the building of the Bakun Dam on the natives of Belaga who were forced to be relocated to Sungai Asap and Sungai Koyan in 1998.

NONE"This is another news interference by the government during and after the Hulu Selangor by-election," Chou said on his blog.

"I feel deeply sorry for the people of Sungai Asap whom I had interviewed, as their problems and voices are being prevented from being heard by the majority of the people both in East and West Malaysia," he added.

Chou said that the move was totally against Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's '1Malaysia' slogan of 'People first'.

"If the Sibu by-election and the Sarawak state election are reasons for the show to be taken off the air, then what RTM is implementing is actually 'politics first'", he said.

'No such orders'

Chou said he had sought the help of deputy information, unity, culture and arts minister Heng Sai Kee to reverse the RTM directive NONEbut was told that the ministry would not interfere in RTM affairs.

Chou through his blog appealed to Ibrahim (left) to reconsider his decision for the sake of RTM's credibility and the natives of Sarawak.

When contacted, Ibrahim denied that he had ordered the documentary to be taken off the air.

"I did not give such orders [...] you should ask Chou instead," said Ibrahim.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

屈服首相夫人压力清谈节目设限 评论人媒体生力挺制作人黄义忠

Malaysiakini.com 即时新闻

前《非谈不可》节目制作人黄义忠今日揭露,Ntv7管理层向首相署和首相夫人罗斯玛的投诉压力下低头,自我审查时事清谈节目《非谈不可》, 设下三不条件违反编辑自主,是导致他毅然辞职的原因。

他透露,在《非谈不可》于吉隆坡和槟城造势活动节目播 出,Ntv7管理层就接获两宗从首相署和首相夫人转发的投诉后,而Ntv7管理层在没有展开全面和公平的调查,就对《非谈不可》的嘉宾人选和讨论议题,设 下诸多不合理的限制。

这些限制包括:1.不准讨论政治课题;2. 不准邀请反对党人士上节目,包括民主行动党国会议员潘检伟上节目讨论新经济模式;和3.不准讨论原定在4月22日的“乌雪补选”课题。

NONE黄义忠(左图)认为,这三项限制缺乏理据,严重 违反节目的编辑自主。公司对节目采取的限制,也是一种自我设限和审查,与新闻专业原则背道而驰,形同惩罚这个节目,严重打击制作团队的专业。

黄义忠指出,根据其上司,ntv7华语新闻与时事组执行编辑陈文贵指出,吉隆坡造势活动在3月18日播出后,19日管理 层就接获投诉。投诉是首相署转发他人的一则手机简讯,《非谈不可》主持人李晓蕙透过电邮把投诉内容转寄给他。内容如下:
“Mereka memperlekehkan KPI dan polisi BN. Memperlekehkan 1 Malaysia. Mencabar PM agar rombak besar-besaran BTN.(Biro Tata Negara). Mempertikaikan (disagree) tindakan Dato Nasir Safar sedangkan Dato Nasir telah berani meletakkan jawatan. Kor Ming dengan bangganya membangkitkan isu pemberian tanah kepada orang ramai di Perak. Wee Ka Siong gagal pertahankan isu MCA apa lagi nak pertahankan polisi UMNo dan BN. Ketua Pemuda MCA set markah 75 kepada PM dalam usaha KPI. Ada usul telus FDI dengan kurangkan kos operasi. Ada usul penilaian KPI oelh rakyat ketua jabatan sahaja.Yang sangat bahaya, dia orang minta kebebasan bersuara bermulan dengan sesi debat tadi. Makna tiada siasatan perlu dibuat, cara mereka bercakap dan membiarkan penonton bertanya soalan seolah-olah kerajaan kita ini terlalu teruk. Apa lagi cina-cina nie nak, mereka lagi kaya dari Melayu. Saya cadang kita perang jer dengan cina-cina nie…Melaru kepada semua ahli-ahli parlimen Melayu/ UMNo/MT dan semua pemimpin UMNO, wake up…mereka semakin biadap.”

黄义忠认 为这个手机简讯是匿名的,内容无理取闹和充满种族主义,但公司高层在还没有调查清楚前,就恫言可能要停播或录播这个节目,并叫他写解释信。

于是他和李晓蕙在3月22日写了一封解释信,信中逐一反驳投诉人无根据的指责,还建议公司高层针对“呼吁所有马来国会议 员和巫统领袖起来,跟华人开战”这句极具种族歧视的煽动性言论立即报警,因为投诉人显然已经失去理智的在煽动种族情绪。不过管理层却没有严阵看待其建议拒 绝报警,以让警方追踪查办,反过来下令不准《非谈不可》谈论政治课题。

因为抗议政治力不当干预和媒体自我审查而 辞职明志的黄义忠是在今早于隆雪华堂召开记者会,讲解呈辞原因及经过。

NONE他获得本身的父母亲、多位评论人包括陈亚才、 唐南发及大约30多名新纪元学院学生出席记者会给予声援。黄义忠也是新纪元学院媒体研究系兼职讲师。

Monday, April 19, 2010

China Curb The Property Speculation By Control in Lending

京滬深樓市 撻訂潮紛現
內地治樓市重藥 被指史無前例
2010年4月19日

【明報專訊】中央接連推出的壓樓市措施,震撼內地,有業界人士直言是史無 前例的嚴厲。在新政策威力下,內地樓市即時有反應,京、滬、深等地已紛見準買家「撻訂」。各地地產業界人士預期,「撻訂」潮隨時湧現,成交亦將急降。市場 近日更傳言,重慶及上海等地,已上報徵收物業稅的計劃方案,各地還將有不同針對樓市的稅收新政陸續推出,在負面消息不斷下,內地樓市勢料將步入寒冬。

上周四的國務院常務會議,首先拋出收緊按揭的震撼彈,要求第二套房的首期 不得少於五成,較07年的調控還要緊。直至前日,國務院再發出通知,要求堅決遏制部分城市的房價過快上漲,給出的對策是,要求各地可以按情,暫停向購買 第三套物業的居民發放按揭貸款,同時,不能提供一年以上納稅證明的非本地居民,更可要求銀行暫停批發按揭貸款。

調控嚴厲程度更勝07年

接連兩日中央連續出招,嚴厲程度頗出業內意料。復旦大學房地產研究中心主任尹伯成直言,對比以往,明顯見到今次當局的決心,「現在的房價的確已經是 奇高了,而且游資有從一線城市蔓延到二、三線城市的趨勢,」故此中央現時出手,反映當對問題的重視。他更預期,未來調控樓市的措施還將有來,各類稅收政策 的調整會是下一波。而在連出兩招後,各地樓市亦即時見反應,北京、上海以至深圳,都已出現準買家看不清後市而「撻訂」的清。北京中原地產總經理李文杰形 容,這次史無前例的調控,已即時打擊市場信心,「雖然現在違約買家還只是零星出現,但未來一個月會大幅增加。」他預期,以現時每月成交的2萬宗二手樓交易 中,大約會有一成,即約2000宗會有「撻訂」可能。

限外地人借貸 重創樓市

但他認為,更嚴峻的還是前日推出的限制外地人借貸措施,「外地買房人佔了北京整體交易的三成左右,」他坦言,一旦北京正式定下暫停批發按揭貸款予外 地人,「這等於是告訴人家,外地人不用再來北京買房了。」這個打擊可能更大。李文杰預期,在多重壓力下,北京當地樓市成交量短期內即會「驟降」。

與北京同樣有頗多外地投資者的上海、深圳以及海南,亦隨時有游資撤走,泡沫爆破的危機。

另一方面,內地傳媒引述重慶地產業界人士稱,當地政府已向國務院上交實施物業稅的規劃,上海亦同步遞交了規劃方案。一旦物業稅開行,亦勢將令當地樓 市雪上加霜。事實上,國務院發出的通知中,已鼓勵各地自行推出調控樓市的財稅措施,更警告各地方大員,要把樓價調控負上全責。

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Waiting & Pick up_ A Long Overdue Correction

It seems that a long overdue correction is finally coming.

The world market, regional & local will come under attack by selling pressure, this coming weeks will see a meaningful correction. Including our KLSE.

We shall wait, then pick up value stock. selling cheap by panic seller.

I wish I can buy back Lionind at 1.56, Parkson at 5.20, Bstead at 3.40 & FACB at below 0.50.

Equity is still the best investment this year, esp in Asian. The strength in Asian Currency is a strong evidence for bullish in Asian Equity. Malaysia Equity Market will see a big push if Najib's Govt is successfully implemented it's New Economic Model.

Friday, April 16, 2010

CSC - NOT CHEAP ANYMORE

It is value buy when it traded below 1.00, still cheap when it's below 1.60.

BUT CSC definitely not cheap anymore at 1.90.

It has fully priced at 2.00.

I have sold all at 1.99.

WHY HOLD IT & TAKE RISK WHEN IT HAS REACH IT FAIR VALUE ?

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Zaid Ibrahim

ZAID IBRAHIM, A HIGHLY RESPECTED LEADER FOR MALAYSIAN, DESERVE A PLACE IN PARLIMEN !!




Zaid Ibrahim calon Pakatan Rakyat di Hulu S'gor
Kuek Ser Kuang Keng
Apr 13, 10
11:36am
Datuk Zaid Ibrahim hari ini dipilih sebagai calon Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) bagi pilihan raya kecil parlimen Hulu Selangor.

Menurut
sumber, pemilihan Zaid itu dibuat oleh biro politik PKR yang bermesyuarat di rumah ketua umumnya, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim pagi ini.

Keputusan memilih Zaid buat sebulat suara,” kata sumber itu lagi kepada wartawan Malaysiakini di luar rumah ketua pembangkang di Segambut, Kuala Lumpur.

Sumber itu berkata PKR menamakan Zaid kerana beliau dilihat sebagai calon berwibawa yang mampu mempertahankan kerusi Hulu Selangor itu.

Zaid adalah bekas menteri yang bertanggungjawab mengenai hal-ehwal perundangan ketika dalam barisan kabinet bekas Perdana Menteri, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi sebelum berpaling tadah ke PKR.

Beliau dijangka akan diperkenalkan secara rasmi sebagai calon Pakatan Rakyat di sebuah ceramah di Serendah, malam ini.

Kerusi Parlimen Hulu Selangor kosong selepas penyandangnya Datuk Zainal Abidin Ahmad meninggal dunia pada 25 Mac lalu akibat barah otak.

Pada pilihan raya umum 2008, wakil rakyat PKR itu menewaskan calon Barisan Nasional Datuk G Palanivel dengan majoriti tipis 198 undi.

Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Razak baru-baru ini mengesahkan bahawa BN akan meletakkan calon daripada MIC untuk bertanding pada pilihan raya kecil itu yang akan diadakan 25 April ini.

BN dijangka mengumumkan calonnya pada 15 April, iaitu dua hari sebelum penamaan calon, dan desas-desus mengatakan Palanivel akan diberi peluang kedua untuk merampas kembali kerusi yang pernah disandangnya sebanyak tiga penggal itu.

Menangi iPod Shuffles dan Hadiah Lumayan Lain! Sertailah Kaji Selidik Sekarang!