Wednesday, December 12, 2007

EDUCATION MUST START FROM THE YOUNG AGE



I even hear it from radio, the advertisement from AKPK to ask those in debts & facing financial problem to see them for solution.

This is good to lend a hand on those in debts problem, find a workable solution for them.

But this is not the best approach, because there are already trapped by the 'DEBTS', they are in sickness already.

The best approach is to educate the financial planning skill from the young age. Just start the financial education from school level ( primary or secondary school).

A lot of social problems can be avoided if they have some 'FQ'!


THE STAR NEWS
1,600 turn to Bank Negara’s AKPK unit every month

By RASHVINJEET S. BEDI

KUALA LUMPUR: Every month, more than 1,600 individuals turn to the Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency (AKPK) to help them overcome their financial difficulties.

The number seeking help monthly has tripled since the agency was set up 18 months.

Of the number that receives counselling, more than 25%, or 430 individuals, sign up for the Debt Management Programme, through which AKPK helps them renegotiate their loan repayment schemes with financial institutions.

AKPK chief executive Mohamed Akwal Sultan believes that more people are finding themselves in financial trouble because of poor financial knowledge.

“The sample size is small and may not be a true reflection of the nation’s problem. It is likely to be a much bigger problem,” said Akwal, adding that more people were seeking AKPK’s expertise.

AKPK is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bank Negara that provides financial counselling and debt-management services to individuals at no cost.

Last year, 6,837 individuals sought help from the agency. This number almost tripled to 20,853 individuals up to October this year.

“Many people come to us when they are no longer able to manage their debts,” said Akwal.

Most of those who approach AKPK come from the Klang Valley and are in their 30s and 40s.

“At this age, the cost of living goes up generally because people have commitments such as family and housing payments,” said Akwal.

Other reasons contribute to their financial problems, the main causes being loss of control over the use of credit cards and poor financial planning (see chart).

As of September this year, the total household debts stood at RM351bil, with the ratio of non-performing-loans at 7%.

A non-performing loan (NPL) one that is in default or close to being in default. Many loans become non-performing after being in default for three months, although this can depend on the contract terms.

“At a single digit, the debt in Malaysia is still manageable,” said Akwal.

“The statistics show that our household indebtedness to the banking sector in Malaysia remains within prudent levels at 52.1% of the GDP,” he added.

Credit card debts alone stood at RM21.6bil, with non-payment of credit card loans amounting to RM591mil, or at an NPL ratio of 2.7%.

“If you look at (the NPL for) credit cards alone, the percentage is small. It’s not a big problem,” said Akwal.

It is for this reason that Akwal would like to promote the use of credit cards if given the opportunity.

“The credit card is like a kitchen knife. It has many uses but if you are not careful, you can cut yourself,” he said.

DR AZAM, 28, had it all: two flashy cars, a beautiful home and a flourishing career. He wore expensive clothes and lived extravagantly on credit.

He renovated his mother’s home and decorated it with expensive Italian furniture. He took a loan for the renovation and bought another house.

Without realising it, Dr Azam owed creditors RM400,000 in housing loans, hire-purchase loans and credit card debts.

Stuck, he approached the AKPK for help. Being single and with his mother being the only dependant, Dr Azam was advised to sell his house. He moved in with his mother and sold one of his cars.

In the end, Dr Azam was able to save 45% of his monthly loan payment.

BEFORE the economic crisis of 1997, Allen was a sales manager earning a five-figure monthly salary, living a comfortable life. However, the economic downturn forced his employers to shut down operations in Malaysia.

At 43, it was hard for him to find a new job. To complicate matters, his wife has a medical condition.

Allen turned to loans and credit cards to fund his lifestyle. Soon enough, creditors began hunting him and threatening bankruptcy.

Suicidal, Allen turned to odd jobs, making less than RM1,000 a month. He skipped meals to ensure his wife had something to eat.

His wife changed his mind about suicide and suggested that he seek the help of AKPK.

Allen had RM200,000 in his EPF, although he could only withdraw the money at 55.

With a debt of RM130,000, AKPK advised him to consider bankruptcy as an option, so that he would be able to settle all his debts when he turns 55.

CHINA LIFE - HK

大行推介 [昔日新聞]
野村:中壽過貴宜沽
業績無驚喜 增長放緩 2007年11月1日

【明報專訊】中國人壽(2628)最近按內地會計準則公布今年第3季度業績,純利達78億元(人民幣‧下同),相當於06年全年純利的81%,每股盈利0.27元。但野村證券指出,有關業績與該行預期相若,並沒有帶來任何驚喜,相反保單失效率及保費增長有放緩舻象,令該行感到憂慮,加上中壽估值偏貴,因此野村仍維持中壽的減持評級,合理價為 44港元(建議時中壽做52港元)。

保單失效率增 保費僅升2%

中壽並沒有公布06年第3季度業績作比較,但 07年第3季度純利,已相當於06年全年純利81%。野村指出,中壽業績繼續受惠於強勁的A股市場表現,單是第3季A股指數已茘升45%,因此中壽季度投資收入多達240億元,相當於期內整體收入的40%,值得注意的是中壽的投資回報率,由今年上半年的5.7%,急增至第3季度的8.6%。

保單失效率方面,由06年全年的4.8%增至今年第3季的4.9%,野村認為可能由於愈來愈多保單持有人斷保,將資金轉投股市所致,這亦是內地保險業一個明顯趨勢。中壽並沒有公布保費的詳細資料,但按照中壽壽險總負債推算其保費變化情,野村則認為情令人憂慮,因為按此計算,保費增幅只有2%,是今年以來最低,今年首兩季增幅均維持3.5%,但野村也承認,這可能與季節性因素有關。

手持現金600億 苦無出路

野村亦留意到中壽資本水平極高,手持現金高逾600億元,公司有水浸之嫌,問題是該股如何有效運用該筆現金。

經調整中港兩地會計準則的差異後,野村估計,以本地會計準則計算的第3季度業績,應與該行預期相若,該行的預期亦是處於市場預期範圍的上限位置。按野村最新估計,中壽07年至09年純利分別為440億、383億及326億元。雖然中壽季度業績強勁,但野村基於估值偏高原因,維持中壽的減持評級及合理價44港元不變。

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Bank of East Asia-HK

東亞回吐7.3% 披露商討敏感交易
2007年12月8日

【明報專訊】近日消息多多的東亞銀行(0023),過去7天隨覑大市升近三成後,昨日顯著回落,收市價較前日下滑7.3%,報53.9元。東亞昨日傍晚發表公告表示,不知悉導致價格下跌的任何原因,但透露該行「正與第三方商討構成或可能構成價格敏感資料的有關可能交易」。

東亞昨日以61元高開,但隨後回落並跌幅擴大,最後以53.9元接近全日低位收市。該行在公告中指:「董事會已知悉最近公司的股份的價格下跌,茲聲明本行並不知悉導致價格下跌的任何原因。本行謹確認,除本行正與第三方商討構成或可能構成價格敏感資料的有關可能交易外,目前並無任何有關收購或變賣的商談或協議……而須予公開者。」

中銀增持至今 升勢凌厲

東亞是近日升幅最凌厲的銀行股,上月28日至周四短短7個交易日,累積升幅達到27%,即使昨日顯著回落,股價仍然比上月底升近18%。該行上月中獲中銀香港(2388)以近40億元,每股51元代價,購入約7750萬股份,佔東亞已發行股份的4.94%。東亞主席李國寶其後表示,不排除中銀香港日後增持。

FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR, HONG KONG IS THE BEST MARKET !

China Shifts Policy To Choke Inflation

2007年12月07日11:36
The announcement by China's leadership of a tougher economic policy for 2008 shows a new consensus that more has to be done to address risks of inflation and overheating in the nation's fast-growing economy.

The new position, which formalizes a policy shift already under way over the past couple of months, was announced yesterday at the close of the annual Central Economic Work Conference chaired by President Hu Jintao.

The rise in inflation, which this year was running at 4.4% through October, has become a major concern of the leadership and has apparently trumped any worries about a slowdown in the world economy.

Although policy makers have been expressing concerns about rapid growth in bank lending and corporate investment for some time, inflation brought new worries of eroding living standards and increased social tensions.

China's inflation has so far been confined mostly to food prices, but it is a definite concern. In October, for example, cooking oil cost 34% more than a year earlier. Policy makers say their goal is to prevent such price increases from spreading throughout the economy.

In order to achieve that, a 'tight' monetary policy will be followed for 2008, a rare and significant change in the official stance. Since the middle of this year, officials had characterized China's monetary policy as 'stable-to-tight,' which itself was somewhat tougher language than the previous standard of a 'stable' monetary policy.

The new policy was announced by the central bank and the main economic-planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, two bodies sometimes seen to be at odds.

What form next year's tighter policy could take is uncertain, but more direct controls of bank lending seem certain to be part of the mix. In recent weeks, the central bank has been rolling out a tougher supervision system to try to ensure that commercial banks next year will adhere to often-ignored lending quotas.

If inflation doesn't retreat, some further interest-rate increases are also possible. The benchmark deposit rate, at 3.87%, is below the rate of inflation -- meaning households are effectively losing money on bank savings.

Analysts say measures taken this year have been moderate and have done relatively little to restrain economic activity. Five increases in interest rates have barely kept up with accelerating inflation, thus the cost of borrowing didn't rise, or even declined, in real terms.

The central bank has also periodically ordered commercial banks to keep more money on reserve. But such increases in the so-called reserve-requirement ratio just kept up with the flow of cash into the economy from the country's large trade surplus, and so haven't seriously restricted the funds available for lending.

Indeed, economic growth accelerated to 11.5% for the first three quarters of this year, from 11.1% in 2006, and its momentum is powerful. Most analysts expect only a very moderate slowdown next year, even taking into account the weakening U.S. economy and tighter domestic policy. The State Information Center, a Chinese government think tank, this week forecast economic growth of 10.8% for 2008.

Many economists also expect China to allow its currency to strengthen at a faster pace next year, in part because a stronger currency helps combat inflation by making imports cheaper. The yuan has risen about 5.5% against the U.S. dollar this year, but the effect of that gain has so far been limited because the dollar itself has been sharply declining against other currencies.

Andrew Batson

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

TONGHER IS ATTRACTIVE

I SAW THIS IN HIS BLOG "nexttrade.blogspot.com"

Tongher testing strong support of RM3.36-40

Tongher has just announced its results for QE30/9/2007 . Its net profit declined by 38% q-o-q or 26% y-o-y to RM15.2 million while its turnover of RM139 million is slightly lower than that recorded in QE30/6/2007 but 58% higher than that reported in the same quarter last year. The poor performance was attributed to lower demand for its products, which coupled with higher raw material costs, has resulted in a drop in its profit margin.



The share price has dropped back since making its high of RM4.53 recorded on October 1st. The sharp price run-up in September & October preceded the bonus issue of 1:3, which went ex on October 16. Since then, the share price has corrected back about 22% (based on yesterday's closing price of RM3.52). In this morning session, the share price dropped 12 sen to close at RM3.40. This is very near the strong horizontal support of RM3.36-40 level, where a rebound may happen. If this support is violated, then the share price may test its uptrend line support at RM3.06-10 level. The uptrend line support could be a entry level for this very well-managed company.

Based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 61 sen, Tongher is now trading at a trailing PE of 5-6 times. We do not know what's Tongher's future EPS will be, but assuming that it is 30% lower than the last 4 quarters' EPS, Tongher could be earning about 43 sen per share. Thus, at the price of RM3.40, it may be trading at a future PE of 8 times. Even at this adjusted earning, Tongher is still an attractive stock. Watch this stock closely.

TONGHER IS A LONG TERM GROWTH STOCK, TO ACCUMULATE ON DIP WHEN MARKET IN CORRECTION MODE IS A GOOD IDEA.

Saturday, November 24, 2007

PARKSON HK LATEST QTR RESULTS


百盛上季多賺45% 符預期 (明報) 11月 24日 星期六 05:05AM

【明報專訊】百盛(3368)昨公布第3季度業績,營業額上升32%至6.95億元(人民幣.下同),股東應佔利潤上升45%至1.5億元,符合市場預期。百盛已連續第8季取得超過40%以上的盈利增長。

連續8季增長逾40%

美林早前發表報告指,公司連續7季錄得超過40%的盈利增長,並指同店銷售增長、收購以及稅率調低等因素支持下,預期07至09年度的每股盈利複合年增長達39%。美林也表示,公司有望在短期內再向母公司收購資產,又可能拆細股份,均有機會推動股價。百盛經營的百貨店數目達40間,根據法巴報告,公司計劃每12個月增加3至5間新店,看重二、三線城市的消費能力上升。

內地10月零售銷售增長加速至18%,作為內地零售消費股的百盛,受全球經濟放緩影響也較小。

根據百盛第3季度業績報告顯示,今年前3季營業額上升48.2%至21.8億元,經營利潤增加53%至7億元。

Friday, November 23, 2007

HOW MILLIONS OF DOLLAR IS WASTED - 3


PROTON SAGA 20 YEARS AGO


PROTON SAGA TODAY.

DO U SEE IMPROVEMENT ?

ADDED 2 LINK

I have added 2 link in my blog:

1)Samgoss - He has make good recommendation on stocks in Bursa Malaysia. But most importantly he only recommend undervalue stock based on Fundamental.

2)Talk & Share - A place to share opinion and seek advise.

Monday, November 19, 2007

HOW MILLIONS OF DOLLAR IS WASTED - 2


MPSP BUILDING IN BANDAR PERDA. BUKIT MERTAJAM, PENANG.

Another good example of how public fund is wasted in constructing a high rise 'WHITE ELEPHANT'

Do we need a high rise building like this one for a small town district council ?

Sunday, November 18, 2007

HOW MILLIONS OF DOLLAR IS WASTED


Traffic jam in Penang Bridge, before Toll Plaza.


Traffic Jam in Penang Bridge, after Toll Plaza.

The above is the common scene in Penang Bridge, hundreds of cars stuck in traffic jam in Penang bridge, millions of dollar is wasted in petrol consumption. This is caused by the failure of Federal & State Government in providing an efficient Public Transport System in Penang.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

A MARKET THAT LOSING HIS CHARM


20 years ago, Penang is the leading state in Malaysia, it has the most beautiful beach of Batu Ferringi and tourism is doing go. Today, 20 years later, the tourism industry is dead as well as the dirty beach. Penang is lagging behind the other states in Malaysia.

Same goes to the Country -Malaysia.
Today, 20 years later, Tolls all over the KL, Traffic jams all over the badly maintained roads, all towns occupied by foreign workers ( Legal & illegal), quality of higher education deterioriate, lousy public services, bad securities etc....

Same goes to the stock exchange - Bursa Malaysia.
Today, 20 years later, all quality & the rich investors has gone to Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Singapore (The Strait Time), China ( Shanghai).

All popular unit trust funds now launch new funds for overseas markets.
Now even the small fish like me start to invest in HK & Singapore via OSK.

What you can see now the Bursa Malaysia has difficulty in attracting the retail & foreign investors, WHERE IS THE VOLUME !? ( Maybe KWSP will be the one to rescue Bursa)

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

INVESTING IDEA FOR BURSA MALAYSIA




The latest export statistic indicated that Malaysia export is not growing compare to last year. Wheres the other Asian Countries (South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, China ) has shown strong growth for the same period.

Our export will be very ugly if we exclude the Petrol & Palm Oil export.

ICAP say we are losing in competitiveness.
The outlook for Malaysia Economy is not optimistic anymore!

THEN what company we should invest in Malaysia ?

I will focus on those Company that have substantial oversea business, and proven tract record.

AND avoid those Company than only focus on Local Market.

Friday, November 02, 2007

US DROP 366 POINT, KLCI DROP 11 POINT ONLY

The KLCI is known to be slow in moving up, but fast in dropping. ie 1 step upward, 3 steps backward.

But this time is different, US drop 366 point, share market everywhere drop 2-3%, we KLCI only drop 11 points or less than 1%. VERY IMPRESSIVE!

IS THIS A INDICATOR THE KLCI WILL RESUME BROAD BASE RALLY IN COMING WEEKS ?

I HOPE SO!

Monday, October 29, 2007

LONG BOOM = HIGH COST PUSH INFLATION


Even Malaysia has a lot of price control items, ie price was cap/controlled by Govt so to prevent the price of daily goods to go higher. BUT now we have seen the Govt has lose control on the price, all price has gone UP & UP.

What we have seen now, the increasing price trend, is not a short term trend, it probably will continue for the next 20 years.

The end results of this long boom is the wider gap between the rich & the poor. THE RICH become very rich, THE POOR become even poorer.

If you are a salary earner, and SALARY is your only source, you will soon find it barely enough to cover your daily expenses. THE HIGH COST OF LIVING WILL BECOME HIGHER EVERY YEAR.

THE ONLY SOLUTION TO THIS IS TO SAVE ENOUGH MONEY FROM YOUNG AGE. GROW YOUR SAVING BY INVESTING. (if not, it's highly chance you can't save any money after you have family with kids)

THEN YOU WILL BEAT " THE LONG BOOM"

Thursday, October 18, 2007

LIONDIV AFTER SPLIT



The price of LionD surged to 3.10 from 1.58 ex-price on 9th Oct after it split from Parkson.

The price went down thereafter for 6 consecutive days and closed 1.65 today.
It is scary to watch the selling pressure keep pushing down the price.

However, this is the right time to look at the value of LIONDIV.

LionD now is pure Steel counter, the main Biz is DRI plant next to Megasteel. As per TTB of Icap, the fair value for DRI alone worth RM3.00 (ie 10 x EPS of 0.30 per share)

LionD owned RM500 mil redeemable convertable loan stock of Parkson from the split exercise. This alone worth 1,000 mil (if convert to 125 mil parkson shares at Mkt price of RM8.00), equivalent to RM1.35 per shares.

LionD also owned certain % shares of Megasteel, LionInd.

AND it is CASH RICH after disposing certain % of Parkson China before the split exercise.

AND it is most likely to undertake an M&A exercise to restructuring again the Lion Group of company.(ie LionD, LionCor & LionInd)

At today closing of 1.65, it is undervalue & unbelievably CHEAP!

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Harder Than Building Wealth: Keeping It

聚財容易守財難

It's easy to get rich -- but it's mighty hard to stay that way.

Want a hefty retirement nest egg? With regular savings and reasonable investment returns, even ordinary investors can garner surprising wealth.

That wealth, however, probably won't last. The fact is, it is tough to keep a nest egg intact through a long retirement, let alone preserve it for multiple generations.

Amassing Cash

Most folks, of course, reach retirement with precious little saved. But if you are determined to accumulate wealth, it isn't inordinately difficult.

Suppose your income is $60,000 and you sock away 15% of your pretax income every year for 40 years. At retirement, you would have almost $900,000. This assumes a 4% annual investment return, which might seem modest, but I am also assuming 0% inflation.

To have a good shot at earning that sort of return, eschew the foolish pursuit of market-beating performance. Instead, sit quietly with a mix of low-expense stock- and bond-index funds. That way, you will capture the underlying markets' performance without losing much to investment costs.

In truth, if you sock away 15% of your income every year, you will likely end up with far more than $900,000. The reason: If you stash savings in your employer's 401(k) plan, you might snag a matching contribution, which could be worth 50 cents for every $1 you invest.

Slipping Away

But easy as it is to amass wealth, it's hard to hang onto. At some point, you will retire -- and that's when the math turns ugly.

Let's say you quit the work force with enough cash to cover your first year's expenses, plus you also have $1 million in stocks and bonds. You reckon your investments will clock 7% a year, while inflation runs at 3%.

That first year, your portfolio would grow to $1,070,000. If you then withdrew $40,000 to cover your second year's expenses, that would leave your portfolio up 3% at $1,030,000. In year two, you would earn 7% on that $1,030,000. That means you could withdraw $41,200 at the end of the second year -- a 3% increase from the prior year -- and still have a portfolio worth 3% more, or $1,060,900.

Result? It seems like you've achieved a neat trick. Both your portfolio and the income it generates are keeping pace with inflation.

Yet this trick isn't as neat as it seems. You can't be sure you will earn a steady 7% or that inflation will hold at 3%. Moreover, investment costs will eat into your performance and then taxes will take a bite out of whatever remains.

Maybe more important, the whole strategy overlooks a fundamental problem: Even if you could collect a stream of income that rises with inflation and even if you could maintain your portfolio's inflation-adjusted value, you aren't holding your own. Instead, you are falling behind.

How so? While the cost of living may rise with inflation, the general standard of living rises somewhat faster, as a growing economy drives up salaries, wages and other sources of personal income. Typically, incomes climb roughly two percentage points a year faster than inflation, so that if inflation runs at 3%, the general standard of living might rise 5%.

Suppose, once again, that your investments notch 7% a year. If you want both your $1 million portfolio's value and the income it generates to match the general standard of living's 5% annual increase, you would need to limit your first withdrawal to a mere $20,000.

What if you spent more freely? If you withdrew $50,000 at the end of the first year and thereafter increased annual spending at 5%, so your lifestyle kept pace with the general population, you would have a wonderful 26 years.

And then you would be broke.

Learning Lessons

Fortunately, for most retirees, that dreaded moment never arrives, because they are more cautious with their spending, so their money lasts longer than they do. In all this, there are three key lessons.

If you are retired and you feel like you aren't keeping up with the Joneses, there's a reason: You probably aren't. Even if your income is increasing with inflation, you are still falling behind most other folks.

This slippage likely won't seem like a big deal, except for those who take early retirement. If you quit the work force in your 50s, you might spend four decades in retirement -- and your standard of living could start to seem distinctly inferior.

Even if the estate tax disappeared, family fortunes will always be difficult to preserve.

If the beneficiaries try to live off the family's wealth, that wealth and the income it generates won't grow along with the general standard of living unless family members are content to spend only those gains in excess of the national growth in personal incomes. That's unlikely to happen unless the family fortune is huge or the beneficiaries are awfully parsimonious.

This highlights how valuable our 'human capital' -- our ability to earn income -- really is. While we are collecting a paycheck, our standard of living should climb as the economy expands. Once we retire, keeping up becomes far tougher -- unless we're willing to spend down our savings.

Jonathan Clements

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

An Irresponsible Act by Melaka State Govt














The Melaka State Govt is elected by it's people in Melaka, It's the state Govt's duty to implement policies that benefited it's people, to take care of it's people welfare, to encourage investment in Melaka so that the Melaka people can live a better life in the State.

But what we have seen now is how the Melaka Govt destroyed the Pig Farming Industry that owned by their peoples who have growing the business in their own land for years or decades.
This is an industry that have supported many families and also contributing to the Melaka economy.

A responsible Govt will not destroy it in the name of pollutions, if it did cause pollutions or some environmental issues, it's the responsibility or duties of the Govt to come up with solutions & support to help the Pig farmer to modernize their farms, the Govt can give soft loans ( low interest rate loan) to the pig farmer to help them modernize the farm, the Govt also can allocate a land to centralise the pig farming industry so that the pollutions can be minimize and contained.

Then only revoke the license for those who refuse to modernize their farms.

The act of existing Melaka Govt now is totally irresponsible and do not act for the welfare of the Melaka peoples. They only destroy the people's biz and hope. They are destroying Malaysia's future.

Monday, September 24, 2007

What would it like for Malaysia in 20 years time ?

I am worried for Malaysia nowadays, the corruption in Malaysia still not improving, wastage of public fund can be seen in all states in Malaysia, Malaysian is getting poorer with their reducing purchasing power & higher inflation rate.

The BN has been in power for long time, years after years, and yet the Malaysia's economy, security, quality of educations, has been deteriorated.

What would it like for Malaysia 20 years later if no changes in Govt?
Can we undo all this corruption, wastage if BN continue with their power ?

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Invest or Speculate

I find this table very useful, just to share with you.

I will always remind myself not to speculate, but focus on investing, only invest if I find it undervalue.

Value Investing for Long Term Gain.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Chinese Institutional Investor Allowed to Invest Oversea

中國公佈機構投資者境外投資管理辦法
2007年06月21日15:56 | |
中 國證券監督管理委員會(China Securities Regulatory Commission, 簡稱﹕中國證監會)週三公佈了證券、基金公司境外投資管理辦法﹐允許證券公司和基金管理公司募集人民幣資金﹐而不必局限於外幣資金。這一調整將使中國居民 更容易購買境外投資產品。

此前﹐由於預期人民幣將進一步升值﹐此類投資產品需求不旺。中國從2006年4月開始允許一些機構投資者根據合格境內機構投資者機制(QDII)提供境外投資產品。作為該機制的擴充﹐中國在5月份允許銀行推出投資海外股票的投資產品。

中國證監會在官方網站上表示﹐《合格境內機構投資者境外證券投資管理試行辦法》已於4月30日通過﹐自7月5日起施行。

根據最新的辦法﹐證券公司和基金管理公司將可以投資於一系列境外交易的金融產品﹐其中包括股票、債券、期貨、銀行存款、銀行票據、政府及公司債券、可轉換債券以及資產擔保證券。

辦法還允許合格境內機構投資者投資於金融遠期、掉期和衍生產品﹐但附帶有需向監管機構提供上述產品投資的風險和管理策略詳細信息等條件。

證券公司和基金管理公司不能投資於商品、商品相關衍生產品和固定資產。

辦法還設定了部分限制﹐如限制了同一境內合格機構投資者對單個證交所上市或由單個發行人發行的證券的投資限額。

根據最新辦法﹐基金管理公司必須擁有至少人民幣2億元的凈資產﹐同時證券公司必須至少擁有人民幣8億元的淨資本。

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Knowing More on Economy & Biz Prospect, Less on Stock Price

BSKL has hit new high at 1,386 & volume has surge again(1.8 bil). My friend told me that this round rally is focus on penny, 2nd & 3rd liner counter. He is excited again.

It's good to see the market come alive again.

I am of the opinion that to profit from shares investment, we need 'value investing' and don't try to speculate.

Just try to understand the economy data, company's biz prospect, keep on learning the investment knowledge from all the successful investor.

It is normal for shares price to go up & come down.

Identify a good profitable company, preferable with high growth business model, BUY it when the price has drop to attractive level. SELL it only when the price has gone up to irresistible level.

You will be a successful investor when you understand the intrinsic value of a company, and take advantage of Mr. Market's irrational behaviour.

Friday, June 15, 2007

How Bond affected Equity

規避利率風暴
2007年06月14日17:01 | | |
目前債券正影響著股市的走勢﹐因此從利率上升中尋找獲利機會的股票投資者需要瞭解一下債市上發生了什麼事情。

由於對經濟增長的預期突然有所提高﹐儘管只是溫和提高﹐債券收益率也出現了快速上揚。如果經濟已經在強勁增長﹐那麼增長率的上升將引發對通貨膨脹的擔憂。

這使經濟和股市處於一個有利態勢中﹐有望從經濟增長中受益的零售和基礎材料等週期類股將會獲益匪淺。但投資者下半年還應關注更具防御性的品種﹐如製藥公司和食品等消費必需品公司﹐因為利率的上升最終可能會導致經濟放緩。

Robert W. Baird & Co.的首席投資策略師布魯斯•比特爾斯(Bruce Bittles)說﹐美國經濟看來已經高速擺脫了第一季度時的低迷狀況。但也許更重要的是﹐收益率是由全球範圍內利率的上升而推動的。

Ritholtz Research & Analytics的首席市場策略師巴里•里薩茲(Barry Ritholtz)說﹐隨著高利率開始產生影響﹐消費必需品等防御類股將在經濟走緩時表現良好﹐大型製藥和醫療保健類公司已經在利率上升和經濟走緩的背景 下表現得更加出色。與此同時﹐非消費必需品類股會受到打擊﹐因為高利率將降低家庭支出。他們將不再購買可有可無的商品。如果出現這種情況﹐沃爾瑪(Wal -Mart Stores Inc.)等公司將面臨不利局面﹐而寶潔公司(Procter & Gamble Co., 又名:寶鹼公司)的表現會更好。

紐約數據研究公司RiskMetrics研究了利率上調0.5個百分點對標準普爾500指數的影響。該公 司發現﹐在利率因通貨膨脹擔憂而走高的環境下﹐材料和能源類股可能表現不俗。基於過去12個月來的股價﹐包括化學品、紙張和玻璃製造商在內的材料類股的平 均漲幅略高於1%﹐而能源類股則上漲了2.4%。

不過﹐還應看到﹐如果利率上升是因為經濟增長強於人們預期而造成的﹐國債市場的走勢可能 受到通貨膨脹正在加劇的心理影響﹐非消費必需品類股也會表現不錯。實際上﹐經濟走強意味著消費品公司的利潤可能會繼續大幅增加。而且﹐高利率還會給這些公 司帶來額外的提振﹐因為他們創造的正現金流的利息也增加了。

這種情況令許多投資策略師認為﹐此次的利率上升與以往常常看到的結果不同。 Vantagepoint Investment Advisors LLC首席投資長韋恩•威克(Wayne Wicker)說﹐我認為這不會導致通貨膨脹﹔這是對經濟增長高於人們預料的普遍認識。

在這種情況下﹐一些應對利率上升的傳統思路可能已 經過時了。Wells Capital Management的首席投資策略師詹姆斯•鮑爾森(James Paulsen)以零售商為例稱﹐三週前情況似乎還很糟糕﹐但現在已經不是這樣了。他認為美國國債的走勢是由於經濟增長﹐而非通貨膨脹。消費品製造商過去 一般被視為是利率走高時的避險天堂﹐但這次它們可能不能從經濟增長加速以及收益增長中獲得那麼多好處了。

鮑爾森稱﹐如果利率上升伴隨著收益的增長﹐那麼防御類股的表現會是最差的。

如 果利率是因為投資者相信經濟走強而上升的﹐那麼非消費必需品和科技等週期性行業將會受益﹐原因在於它們通常會受到個人和企業支出增加的推動。 Tiffany & Co.等奢侈品零售商和家用科技產品巨頭蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)就屬於這一類﹐另外還有醫療技術公司和電信公司。

紐約銀行(Bank of New York)首席外匯策略師邁克爾•沃爾福克(Michael Woolfolk)說﹐隨著債券價格的下跌﹐高風險高收益類型的投資將從利率走高中受益。在這種環境下那斯達克市場將有出色表現。

花旗集團(Citigroup Inc.)等大型銀行也會表現不錯﹐不過無論是哪種原因導致利率走高﹐它們都會受益。這是因為﹐當長期債券的收益率高於短期投資時﹐銀行的利潤率就會提高。直到近期為止﹐銀行還一直因長期收益率低於短期收益率而深陷困境之中。

如 果國債收益率的上升是由於強於預期的經濟增長推動的﹐那麼利率的上升最終可能會給最初從中受益的股票帶來下行壓力。Wells Capital Management的鮑爾森說﹐目前﹐經濟強勁增長導致利率升高這一事實對消費者有利。但他說﹐從現在開始的9個月到1年內﹐高利率可能就會阻礙經濟增 長﹐消費支出也會趨於下降。

Karen Richardson / David Reilly

Natural Resources & Commodities

如何通過實物投資防範股市風險
2007年06月13日17:25 | |
全球的自然資源是有限的﹐但投資者的熱情是無限的。

晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)的數據顯示﹐商品、貴金屬和自然資源基金的資產規模現已達到1,120億美元﹐而2001年年底時還只有區區80億美元。毫無疑問﹐8年以來這些基金大多具有的驕人表現已令投資者趨之若鶩。

但這並不是購買此類基金的原因。週二美國股市的下跌提醒我們﹐最好買一些與股票、債券反其道而行的投資品種。但是﹐哪一類實物資產基金對沖股市下跌的效果最好呢?

自然資源。過去投資者經常求助於自然資源類股。

例 如﹐托馬斯•羅•普來斯(Thomas Rowe Price Jr.)創建的同名公司1969年推出了T. Rowe Price New Era基金。普來斯預計將發生嚴重的通貨膨脹﹐他認為自然資源公司將可以起到有效的防範作用。果不其然﹐20世紀70年代的物價暴漲使T. Rowe Price New Era基金贏得了142%的累計回報率﹐相比之下標準普爾指數只有77%的漲幅﹐通貨膨脹率也只有104%。

聽起來不錯吧?自然資源基金的長期回報類似於大市的增長﹐而且油價上漲時他們的表現也會不錯﹐原因是絕大多數此類基金都主要或完全投資於能源公司。但是﹐如果股市下跌的原因不是油價的上漲﹐這種基金的風險防範效果就不那麼好了。

新澤西州Old Tappan財務規劃師馬克•威洛比(Mark Willoughby)表示﹐投資資源類公司的股票還是會承擔股市的風險﹔要想分散風險﹐應該投資商品。

商品。誠然當今很多基金的做法是投資商品期貨或其它衍生品﹐以及債券或國債。

加 里•戈頓(Gary Gorton)和基爾特•魯文荷斯(K. Geert Rouwenhorst)在《金融分析師期刊》(Financial Analysts Journal)發表文章稱﹐從歷史上看﹐這種投資組合的回報模式完全不同於股票和債券﹐但其長期回報率卻可同標準普爾500的回報率媲美。

這麼好的業績是如何取得的?期貨買家使生產商得以對沖保值其產品的風險﹐同時從中獲得了豐厚的回報。但威洛比稱﹐問題在於﹐5年來這麼多錢流向商品期貨﹐歷史溢價是否會消失呢?

商 品基金避稅效果不好﹐報稅還容易生出枝節。Barclays Global Investors認為﹐他們在紐約證交所交易的iPath Exchange Traded Notes是解決這個問題的好辦法。買Barclays Global Investors的這種產品可以獲得延遲交稅的好處。但是美國國稅局(Internal Revenue Service)可能不會認同Barclays的稅務解釋。

威洛比建議﹐把商品基金放到一個退休帳戶是最安全的辦法。他推薦了Pimco CommodityRealReturn和Oppenheimer Commodity。

貴金屬。 對這些新生基金不放心嗎?《四大投資支柱》(The Four Pillars of Investing)的作者威廉•伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein)指出﹐最好的投資對象是老式黃金-股票基金﹐例如American Century Global Gold。

他認為﹐長期來看﹐黃金基金每年可獲得比通貨膨脹率高出一到兩個百分點的回報。但是還有其他好處:由於黃金-股票基金和其他投資的表現大相徑庭﹐你把投資組合的3%放在黃金上﹐並不時買入賣出股票保持這個3%的比例﹐從中獲得重新平衡的好處。

你也可以不購買貴金屬類股基金﹐而是通過購買iShares Silver和streetTracks Gold等上市交易基金投資貴金屬。

但伯恩斯坦並不看好這種方式。他說﹐貴金屬本身沒有什麼值得期待的良好投資回報﹐貴金屬只是分散投資風險的末流選擇。你只需購買一小部分黃金-股票基金就能獲得與煞費苦心的貴金屬投資同樣的分散投資之效。

Jonathan Clements

(編者按﹕本文作者Jonathan Clements是《華爾街日報》個人理財專欄“Getting Going”的專欄作家)

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Won Appreciation Affected Korean Economy

韓圓升值沖擊韓國經濟
2007年06月12日07:42



自2005年初以來﹐韓圓兌美元匯率已上揚了10%﹐升值幅度超過了亞洲其他貨幣﹐這給出口導向型的韓國經濟造成了問題。

韓圓升值迫使韓國公司上調產品價格或降低利潤率。過去兩年中﹐三星電子(Samsung Electronics Co.)和現代汽車(Hyundai Motor Co.)等韓國主要製造商都遇到了價格競爭力下降、經營利潤暴跌以及股價下挫等問題。

韓國造船業雖然影響匯率的因素有很多﹐但卻只有一個行業被經濟學家和銀行家們普遍認為應為韓圓升值負責﹐那就是韓國的造船業。韓國的造船公司接獲了全世界一半的購船訂單﹐受全球貿易增長以及中國的大宗商品進口需求推動﹐韓國的十幾家大型造船企業正經歷著前所未有的繁榮。

但它們也由此成為迫使韓圓升值的最主要壓力﹐因為造船商只有在船舶完工後才能得到大部分購船款﹐目前而言從接單到船舶造成至少要三年時間。在此期間﹐造船商會通過遠期外匯交易來對它們未來將收到的購船款進行套期保值。

例 如﹐如果一家造船商接到了一筆價值1億美元、2010年交貨的訂單﹐它目前可能只能從買家得到1,000萬美元的預付款﹐那麼他就需要對剩餘9,000萬 美元可能遇到的匯率風險進行對沖。它會向一家銀行保證﹐如果這家銀行2010年時會付給它834億韓圓(目前折合9,000萬美元)﹐那麼它屆時就會付給 這家銀行9,000萬美元。這家銀行接到這筆生意後就會到外匯市場購買834億韓圓﹐然後將其存入專為這家造船商開立的一個帳戶。

銀行這 一購買韓圓的行為增加了市場對韓圓的需求﹐從而推高了韓圓匯率。而韓圓的不斷升值反過來又增強了造船商對其未來收入進行套期保值的意願。三星經濟研究院 (Samsung Economic Research Institute)駐首爾的經濟學家Hong Sun-young說﹐這就形成了一種惡性循環﹐對韓圓今後將會升值的預期導致了韓圓升值。但他並沒有指責那些造船商﹐稱它們的套期保值行為是非常合理 的。

當然﹐美元和日圓相對疲弱也應為韓圓走強負一定責任。但韓國造船業的強勁增長及造船業在韓國經濟中舉足輕重的地位都給韓圓造成了明顯的升值壓力。造船業對韓國國內生產總值的貢獻率約為4%﹐僅次於電腦晶片和汽車製造業。

韓 圓的升值對韓國其他出口商而言是個壞消息。比如﹐現代汽車去年的淨利潤下降了35%﹐主要原因就是在歐美市場的歐元和美元銷售收入兌換為韓圓後出現了縮 水。此外﹐由於日圓兌美元和歐元走低﹐面對豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)和本田汽車(Honda Motor Co.)等在海外消費者中享有更高品牌認知度的日本競爭對手的壓力﹐現代汽車一直無法提高價格。現代汽車的發言人表示﹐公司將重點開展營銷活動﹐以提高品 牌形象。

在去年12月份舉行的會議中﹐韓國一些大企業的高管要求政府高官通過干預“控制”韓圓的升值。韓國財政經濟部長權五奎(Kwon O-kyu)當月晚些時候表示﹐政府2007年將重點解決韓圓走強的負面風險。但人們預計造船商不會停止對沖的做法﹐因為一旦停止有侵蝕未來利潤的風險。

韓 圓在2004年第四季度開始大幅上揚﹐當時韓國央行停止了長期以來為保持韓圓穩定而進行的干預行為。隨著韓圓波動性的加劇﹐造船商逐步增加了對沖活動。央 行的數據顯示﹐2005年﹐以造船商為主的韓國出口商共對沖了292億美元。當年韓圓對美元的年平均匯率上升了10.5%。去年﹐對沖額增加約70%﹐達 到了493億美元﹐韓圓對美元的年平均匯率又上升了6.7%。

造船商在對沖時並不披露具體事項。但上個月﹐全球最大的造船企業現代重工業 股份有限公司(Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.)共獲得了創紀錄的33億美元的訂單, 將在2010年和2011年交付33艘船只。上月初﹐韓圓升至922韓圓兌1美元的今年最高水平。目前的匯率水平為1美元兌931韓圓。

經濟學家指出﹐其他經濟數據表明韓圓兌美元不應走強。匯豐(HSBC)駐香港經濟學家弗雷德里克•紐曼(Frederic Neumann)表示﹐經常項目基本平衡﹐沒有巨額貿易順差﹐也沒有大量資本流入。從基本面上得不出升值的預期。

但經濟學家認為﹐韓圓仍將面臨壓力﹐原因是造船業的繁榮局面可能延續下去﹐直到全球經濟減速為止。此外﹐最簡單的解決方案──韓國央行持續買進美元──會給韓國政府帶來政治風險﹐原因是由於央行要以較高利率發行債券以買進美元﹐消費者將面臨利率上升的情況。

三星經濟研究院的Hong Sun-young說﹐另一種可選方案是任由韓圓繼續升值﹐直到市場認為韓圓兌主要貨幣被高估為止。他說﹐這樣造船商可能會改變他們的預期﹐減少對沖數額。

Evan Ramstad

Monday, June 11, 2007

MEGAN = TODAY BUYER = U SHOULD KNOW WHY U ARE BUYING

Megan's price drop from 0.31 to 0.145 today with heavy volume. Today trading done within 0.12-0.17.

Today's buyer should know that they are buying shares of a Company that have a -ve shareholder's fund. (see above table attached in Megan's latest announcement)

The worst thing is that we are still in the dark and know nothing about Megan actual value at this moment.

The buyer who bought Megan today with the hope of getting higher price tomorrow should know well that they are merely speculating, treat BSKL as Casino online.

Why take high risk that does not come with good returns for Megan.

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Lesson from Transmile's Accounting Scandal


You may notice i have created a link ' SS investing collection' at the right of my blog 3 weeks ago. This is where I uploaded & store the good articles, the paper cutting of my stock and the headline news.

I have just uploaded another good article written by Mr. Fong Si Ling today. For those who can't read Chinese, I summarise it as below:-

1) Being a retail investor in BSKL, we must analyse every incidence happening now, learn from mistake, try to reduce mistake.

2) Transmile's scandal teach us that being a retail investor, it's difficult to obtain all info or understand fully on what is happening on listed company. In Malaysia, it's not advisable to apply investment strategy that only focus on a few company.

3) It's also not advisable to diversify into too many company, Fong suggesting a RM1.0 mil portfolio, should invest in not less than 15 company.

4) Do not just rely on analyst recommendation, must read more company analysis report for references.

5) Do not buy stock at a price that already factor in the future projected earning. It's more pragmatic to buy at fair price or below fair price for high quality stock.

Friday, June 01, 2007

TRANSMILE : WHAT LESSON WE LEARNED FROM IT

初步調查:2年賬目有問題
金鵬涉虧2億報賺3億

會計醜聞引疑慮.財報季節蒙塵
分析員:健全制度助重建信心


Transmile was one of the 'darling stock' before, it was the so call 'Super Brand' in Bursa Malaysia.

The share price in the last 1 year has maintained at the region of RM12-RM14. A lot of investor ( retail & institution, local & foreign) has been attracted by it's good financial results, but I believe most of them bought the shares only because 1) Robert Kuok & Foreign Investor has a stage in it 2) Strong publication and successful image projection by mass media.

Those who bought in the shares in last 1 year at around RM12-RM14 will suffer losses of nearly 50% as at today closing of RM6.00

The investment philosophy of Benjamin Graham has once again prove to us it is still relevant in this century.

It's concept of 'Value Investing' and 'Margin of Safety' must be adhere to by all 'investor'. You will not getting quick profits from practicing this concept, but you certainly will get a handsome rewards in the long term.

And the most important one is you will avoid from making 'buy decision' chasing Transmile at RM12.

Another lesson is do not make investment decision only based on news in the mass media. The Big Sharks & Crocodiles are smart in using mass media to promote for them. ( this is why I use I-Capital for independent analysis)


Thursday, May 31, 2007

Child Education Fund @ 31/5/2007


The market has undergo correction, some call it base building, Muiind has come down below 30 cent due to weak sentimen and fear of China Correction. I added 5,000 Muiind at 0.295.

China has started it's long overdue correction on 30/5/07. More volatile expected in China Market. Our BSKL has lost it's momentum, although the Index has not gone down much, but most of the counter esp 2nd & 3rd liner has come down to more attractive level.

For Value Investor, maybe this is the right time to accumulate ( slowly by stages) some good counter.

For me ? I will focus on Liondiv, Lionind, Muiimd, Ornasteel & TongHerr.
(IF THEY DROP TO MY TARGET PRICE )

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

China up stamp duty from 0.1% to 0.3%

The message is not to ignore the determination of China Govt to cool down the Mkt! A correction is better than crash !

財政部上調證券交易印花稅稅率
2007年05月30日08:21 | |
中 國財政部(Ministry of Finance)於北京時間30日零點左右通過官方的新華社(Xinhua)宣佈﹐將從週三開始把證券交易印花稅率從當前的0.1%上調至0.3%。市場 普遍認為﹐這是中國政府逐步給股市降溫的最新舉措。中國股市的基準指數本月以來已連創新高。

這一最新消息對紐約股市週二後市的交易構成了 影響﹐紐約銀行(Bank of New York)中國企業美國存託憑證指數下跌1.5%﹐至361.82點﹐但該跌勢並不足以抵消美國股市中亞洲其他股票走強影響﹐紐約銀行亞洲分類指數仍上漲 0.3%。與此同時﹐紐約銀行新興市場美國存託憑證指數下跌0.4%。

RBC Greenwich Capital國際策略主管Alan Ruskin在研究報告中指出﹐與口頭警告相比﹐中國政府的稅率政策調整當然更具有建設性。在當前貨幣政策受到匯率因素制約的情況下﹐稅率政策是中國政府可以利用的為數不多的傳統政策工具之一。

據《中國日報》(China Daily)網站上週報導﹐在4月份一個月的時間里﹐中國上海證交所和深圳證交所就新增A股交易帳戶總計479萬戶﹐超過了過去兩年來的新增交易帳戶的總和。

新華社報導稱﹐2006年中國證券交易印花稅收入增加逾一倍﹐達到22.4億美元。今年第一季度該項收入已較上年同期大幅增長516%。

根據《中國日報》的報導﹐中國政府曾在2005年1月將證券交易印花稅稅率從0.2%下調至0.1%﹐以幫助提振低迷的股市人氣。

Babson Capital Management駐哥倫比亞特區的新興市場股票組合經理Babak Minovi表示﹐他正在搜集有關中國上調證券交易印花稅稅率的細節信息﹐並補充說﹐儘管投資者在等待中國政府進一步採取緊縮性措施﹐並繼續推出既不會導 致股市崩盤又能夠給股市降溫的舉措﹐然而最新上調印花稅稅率的舉措仍有些出乎意料。

最新舉措對外匯市場的影響稍縱即逝﹐歐元兌日圓從此前的紀錄高位溫和下跌﹐但很快回穩。

近期來自中國和海外的擔憂與日俱增﹐投資者觀察到﹐中國經濟快速增長推動其股市不斷刷新紀錄﹐許多人士認為這種勢頭難以持久。

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱Fed)前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)最近對中國股市強勁上漲發出了警告﹐他表示﹐中國股市近來的表現顯然不可持續。

RBC Greenwich Capital的Ruskin表示﹐中國政府逐步推出抑制股市投機活動的措施﹐旨在避免股市硬著陸。

Isabelle Lindenmayer / Wailin Wong

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Mr Market Vs Value Investing

股市交易法則之“加氏十六條”
2007年05月23日10:01 | |
揚基隊著名捕手約吉•貝拉(Yogi Berra)曾有這樣一句名言﹕棒球90%靠的是心智﹐其餘才是體能。這一點可能對股票交易也適用。在股票市場上﹐投資者即使把各種消息和數字研究得透徹到家了﹐但最後仍有可能賠得很慘。

編 撰全球股市每日通訊Gartman Letter的丹尼斯•加特曼(Dennis Gartman)說﹐從七十年代在棉花期貨交易所做交易開始﹐至今數十年的痛苦經歷讓他領悟到了上面這一點。這中間發生了很多插曲﹐既有在國債交易所操盤 時在一筆交易中擊敗來自太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)交易對手的顯赫戰績(那是在八十年代初)﹐也有數年交易積累的利潤轉眼間煙消雲散的慘痛時刻。不 過﹐眼下他坐在這裡回憶這一切時卻很輕鬆。

如何走出象牙塔後、在現實世界求得生存﹐加特曼總結出了他所謂的“貌似簡單的交易法則” (Not-So-Simple Rules of Trading)。其中有些法則與市場普遍接受的看法大相徑庭。學院派總說﹐長期而言﹐起作用的還是基本面﹔不過就短期來說﹐市場毫無理性和效率可言。

但 加特曼斷言﹐實際上﹐女裝店的老板比大多數學者更瞭解市場。假設他同時進了紅色和綠色的服裝﹐紅色的賣得好﹐綠色的賣不動﹐他該怎麼做﹖他會提高紅色服裝 的售價、進更多的貨﹐同時把綠色的服裝降價﹐以便儘快脫手。加特曼說﹐這是很自然的邏輯﹐但現實生活中股票交易員們卻經常反其道而行。

加特曼說﹐如果你買的東西價格升了﹐那說明你買對了。

加特曼從諸如此類的事例總結出了他的“加氏十六條”﹕

1. 在任何情況下﹐無論如何千萬不要增持已經賠錢的頭寸﹐千萬不要﹐永遠不要﹗增持虧損的頭寸是交易之大忌、之殺手﹐就像酒後駕車一樣要不得。最後只能粉身碎骨。務必相信我。

2. 做交易時要像那些唯利是圖的雇佣兵一樣﹕必須站在能贏的一方作戰﹐而不是在經濟學原理上正確的那一方。

3. 心理資本勝過實際資本。在這兩類資本中﹐前者比後者更珍貴。持有正在下跌的頭寸是會付出可觀的實際資本的代價﹐而其消耗的心理資本卻是不可估量的。

4. 交易並不是低買高賣﹔實際上﹐它是高買、更高賣﹐是強者更強、弱者更弱。

5. 在牛市的時候人們只能作多或保持中性﹐同樣﹐熊市時只能作空或持中性。這是明擺著的。但很少有人能理解它﹐接受它的就更少了。

6. 市場處於非理性的時間會比你、我保持有償債能力的時間要長得多。這是凱恩斯(Keynes)說的。而非理性的確經常主宰市場﹐雖然按學者的說法似乎不該如此。

7. 當市場最強勁的時候要大力買進﹐當市場最弱勢的時候要捨得賣出﹐道理很簡單。弱勢時﹐就好像要用石頭去砸被水浸得最透的紙袋﹐因為它最容易被打破﹔而強勢時﹐就好像要乘最強勁的風出航﹐因為這時能行得最遠。

8. 思考問題要像一個“基本面”派﹐但操作交易時要像簡單的技術派﹕基本面或許會推動市場﹐我們需要有所瞭解﹔但如果從圖表上看後市並不樂觀﹐那為什麼非得看好呢﹖在技術因素和基本面齊齊向好的時候﹐你應該感到樂觀。

9. 交易是有週期性的。有的週期很好﹐大多數都不怎麼樣。當交易週期順利的時候﹐加大力度。反之則減少、再減少。“時候”好的話﹐即使犯點錯也還能贏利﹔但“時候”不好的話﹐你再做足了功課也無濟於事。這是交易的自然規律。接受它、運用它。

10.保持一個簡單的技術交易系統。複雜的系統必然導致混亂﹐簡潔則能帶來從容。我們所瞭解的出色的交易員都使用最簡單的交易系統。兩者相輔相成。

11. 在從事交易和投資方面﹐懂得大眾心理學往往比經濟學知識更重要。簡單來說﹐就是應該反其道而行﹐“別人捶胸頓足的時候你應該買進﹐別人興奮地大叫時你就該拋出了”。

12. 熊市時期的回調比牛市時的回調更激烈而迅猛。為什麼會這樣我們也搞不懂﹐但事實就是如此﹐我們接受它就好了。

13.臭蟑螂不會就那麼一只。股票市場的大多數壞消息帶給我們的教訓就是﹐一定會有更多消息接踵而至...﹐並總會對股價產生不良影響﹐直到恐慌主宰市場、那些最弱勢的投資者最終倉皇出逃。

14.對賺錢的交易要有耐心﹐對賠錢的交易不能有一絲一毫的包容。如此﹐隨著年齡的增長﹐我們每年遇到的有小虧的交易會越來越多﹐但我們手裡積累的盈利卻會有增無減。

15. 多做有用功﹐少做無用功。這一條對股票交易和對日常生活一樣適用。去做那些已經證明有好處的事。對賺錢的交易不妨追加投資﹐對賠錢的要捨得割肉。如果說股票交易(以及生活)有什麼秘密可言的話﹐這一條就是吧。

16. 所有規則都有被打破的時候......只是相當少見而已。明知少見卻可為而有成者﹐是謂天才。

看到這條﹐約吉可能會加上一句﹕“從理論上講﹐理論與實踐沒有差別﹔從實踐上看﹐二者確是存在差別。”

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Not a question of 'IF' but 'WHEN'

泡沫、泡沫......總要破
2007年05月22日10:33 | |
上週﹐電視節目主持人問我﹐你認為中國A股市場的泡沫何時破滅﹐我一面試圖圍繞這個問題的荒謬性發表看法﹐一面提醒自己﹕大家已經不討論“是否”有泡沫﹐還是直接考慮“何時”的問題了。

政 府為股市開出的各種退燒藥眼下都沒能奏效﹔而政府各級官員和市場專家對股市風險一再發出的警告只是投資者的耳旁風﹐而且煽得股市之火反而燒得更旺了﹐衡量 中國股市的CSI300指數在不到5個月的時間裡瘋狂上漲了85%。如今﹐每天的新開戶數超過25萬﹐而這僅僅才是一個開始。從本質上說﹐多數新股民都好 似一群賭徒﹐他們把股市看作一個充滿遊戲與運氣的棒球聯盟。

在這樣一個狂飆的市場面前﹐投資者卻沒有合法的作空渠道。政府選取了一批大型機構嘗試人們期許已久的期貨交易﹐但這些初步嘗試的效果好壞參半﹐我聽說這些券商在期貨市場上很受打擊﹐因為股價的走勢缺少任何理性基礎的支撐。

其他有助於加大市場管控力度的“改革”被延期推遲﹐因為有關部門官員不願在今年這個政治上高度敏感的年頭冒險進行大規模的改革措施。

說句可能不大中聽的話﹐中國股市很有可能過不了多久就會出現一次大幅回調。到那時﹐由於沒有任何措施來對沖下行風險﹐投資者唯一能做的就是在一片恐慌中拔腿快逃。

這一幕成為事實只是時間早晚的問題。

我以前曾撰文指出﹐中國股市與海外股市基本上是割裂的﹐但中國股市二月份急劇下挫所引發的一系列連鎖反應卻讓投資者認識到﹐市場對中國股市大幅下跌所產生的心理反應足以波及亞洲其他市場﹐進而給全球市場帶來衝擊。

中 國股市一旦遭遇“高台跳水”﹐就有可能殃及北美和歐洲股市──美國投資者似乎對這一點尚未充分認識﹐甚至根本就忽略了。我希望對沖基金和其他同意這一觀點 的投資者在建倉時就已為中國股市可能出現崩盤做好了應對準備﹐尤其是對與消費者息息相關的類股﹐譬如寶潔公司(Procter & Gamble Co.)和百勝餐飲(YUM Brands)﹐因為國內股市下滑將令消費者支出突然減少﹐從而可能影響到這類公司的表現。

中國上週宣佈了多項給經濟降溫的措施﹐同時還提高了人民幣兌美元匯率的浮動範圍﹐這也被外界看作是為中美本週舉行的戰略經濟對話打下鋪墊。但就我掌握的情況來看﹐中國的購物中心、道路、船舶等仍在以進步瘋狂的步伐增加著。

你認為中國股市會回歸到現實中來嗎﹖
本文譯自MarketWatch

Sage Brennan

(本文譯自MarketWatch

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Small Fish Vs Big Shark

Noticed the market volume is shrinking, the surge in index is not sustainable, up in the morning section, down in the afternoon.

In view of the uncertainties and fear of China Crash, it's good being a Small Fish, at least the small fish is flexible enough to just disposed off some of the shares easily ( can be 80-90%), walk away & sidelined for a period, enjoying the show from Shanghai.

It's not so lucky for Big Sharks, because they can't just sell and walk away. Any selling from them will cause the price drop heavily due to thin market volume. They have to take weeks to reduce their equity holding and praying Shanghai don't crash tomorrow.

An intelligent Small Fish is not necessary weak than Big Sharks if not better!

Latest Purchase at 17 May 2007

I have bought 10,000 Muiind at 0.33 from Child's education fund.
Increase the Muiind from 12,000 to 22,000 shares.

Noted their proposed purchase of Metrojaya has got all the authorities approval, the deal should be completed soon which will see Muiind earning to improved in near future.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Latest Sales on 16 May 2007









In view of the uncertainties in the immediate term, I have disposed 2,000 Lionind at 1.98 and 3,000 Ornasteel at 1.46.

This has increase my cash to 34% and waiting for the right time to re-enter the market at lower price.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

I Decided to CLOSE Maybank Account

I totally disagree with what Maybank has done on the '50% bumi equity requirement' measure, therefore I have decided to close Maybank account.

The issue is not whether it's bumi or non-bumi, but to make Malaysia a better country we must make ALL decision on ' MERIT' not race, not religion.

For those not aware of this issue, below are the news:-

The extracted from The Star dated 9/5/2007.

MCA: Maybank move discriminatory

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank has come under fire from MCA vice-president Datuk Seri Chua Soi Lek for its requirement to law firms that it must have at least three bumiputra partners, one of whom must have a 50% stake, before these firms can do any business with the bank.

Describing the move as discriminatory, he said many Malaysians had expressed their disappointment with the bank for its decision.

“On one hand, we are talking about racial integration but on the other hand, we are adopting such positions which are racial in nature,” he said.

Dr Chua, who is the Health Minister, questioned the existence of such a ruling, adding how Malaysia could compete globally if a government-linked company like Maybank still adopted such a position.

Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Ng Yen Yen also questioned the bank’s move as firms that provided the best professional services should be the criteria for selection.

“We should learn to be more competitive because we are liberalising our financial services. What Maybank is doing is not in sync with what the Government is doing,” the Wanita MCA chief said.

Dr Ng said the move taken by Maybank may be an internal decision but she said the Wanita MCA regretted the action as it had no legal basis and was certainly not in line with the spirit of the Federal Constitution. Another unnamed bank was also reportedly to have made a similar decision.

She said Maybank was dealing with lawyers who were professionals and ethnic composition should not be an issue, adding that law firms should be judged on their abilities.

MCA Youth chief Datuk Liow Tiong Lai urged Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to intervene as the requirement was discriminatory, adding that the bank should withdraw the ruling immediately.

He hoped Abdullah, who is the Finance Minister, would step in to resolve the issue, adding that MCA Youth was disappointed with the decision as it would tarnish the image of Malaysian companies.

The Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry also criticised the move, saying it prevented businesses from operating freely; while Bar Council chairman Ambiga Sreenevasan said all lawyers should be judged on their merit and that the council would be writing to Bank Negara on the matter.


Friday, May 11, 2007

Megan Media, My Experience


I have bought Megan last month (Apr) after my friend told me that it's 'Insider' tips. I did some check and find out it has high EPS and low PE. It appears cheap and I bought 20 lots the next day at 0.68.

Few days later I discovered that Megan is in huge debts position due to heavy investment in Plant and Machinery and the nature of it's biz need reinvestment every few years due to changes in technology. I feel uneasy over my investment in Megan because of the high gearing and it's biz model that always required huge reinvestment.

I decided to dispose it after 2 weeks of holding at 0.65 ( at a loss of 0.03 per share) because I recall the principle for 'Intelligent Investor' : Don't even hold a stock for ten minutes unless you are willing to own it for 10 years.

Look at Megan price today of 0.435 (she has defaulted RM47 mil bank loan & owing RM888 mil debts), This incident has reinforce my believe in 'Value Investing'

If you are interested in 'Value Investing' & wanted to be an 'Intelligent Investor', the following are some of the rules:-

1) When you invest in a stock, you are buy a biz, not a stock. Understand the biz.
2) Demand a Margin of Safety.
3) The Rule#1 is don't lose money.
4) Take advantage on the moody Mr. Market.



Thursday, May 10, 2007

China Market break 4000 point

中國股市收盤突破4000點大關
2007年05月09日19:34 | |
中國股市週三收盤走高﹐基準上證綜合指數首次站上4000點大關﹔原因是藍籌股獲得強勁追捧﹐抵消了獲利回吐壓力。

上證綜合指數漲1.6%﹐收於歷史最高點位4013.09點﹔深證綜合指數漲0.3%﹐至1111.29點﹐同為歷史最高收盤點位。

分析師們稱﹐目前說中國股市已見頂為時尚早﹐不過﹐隨著獲利回吐壓力的加大﹐短期內股市波動或將加劇。他們稱﹐基準上證綜合指數去年上漲了一倍多﹐今年以來又累計上揚了50%。

渣 打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)經濟學家王志浩(Stephen Green)稱﹐除非中國政府採取措施抑制股指進一步攀升﹐否則考慮到目前市場流動性充裕、上行動能強勁以及收益消息不斷湧現﹐上證綜合指數在未來一、兩 個月內將上探5,000點。

分析師們稱﹐人民幣進一步升值的前景以及國內經濟增長強勁將會支撐股市長線走勢。

受股市火爆局面及高投資回報可能性的推動﹐散戶投資者在過去幾個月蜂擁入市。據《上海證券報》週三報導﹐4月份A股新增開戶數479萬﹐高於2006年全年的308萬。不過﹐這些缺乏股票投資知識的新股民很容易受到股市振盪的衝擊。

某合資基金管理公司駐上海的一位投資主管稱﹐對於那些通過變賣房產或用退休金來炒股的投資者而言﹐股市的任何波動都將令引發他們的撤資離場。

部分監管機構官員和學者也表達了對資產價格上升可能過快的擔憂。

當被記者問及是否擔心股市形成泡沫時﹐中國央行行長周小川上週末表示﹐他的確有此擔憂﹐出於對匯率穩定的考慮﹐央行要監控消費者價格指數(CPI)、生產者價格指數(CPI)和資產價格。

《上海證券報》週三還援引中國人民大學(Renmin University)金融與證券研究所(Finance and Securities Research Institute)所長吳曉求的話稱﹐中國股市存在結構性泡沫﹐某些資產的價格存在高估。

週三的市場交投狀況體現了這種擔心﹐投資者避開那些超買的股票﹐將投資轉向藍籌股。華泰證券(Huatai Securities)分析師陳慧琴稱﹐這是投資者越發意識到獲利回吐風險的跡象。

大型藍籌股中國工商銀行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)漲5.5%﹐至人民幣5.78元﹔中國銀行(Bank of China)漲7.8%﹐至人民幣6.10元。

寶鋼股份(Baoshan Iron & Steel)漲4.7%﹐至人民幣11.98元﹔長江電力(China Yangtze Power)漲2.9%﹐至人民幣15.04元。

分 析師們稱﹐投資者出於套利目的可能在中國首只股指期貨推出前繼續買入大型股。中國政府一再表示希望大力發展金融市場﹐引進股指期貨可能是其中方式之一。中 國證券監督管理委員會(China Securities Regulatory Commission)副主席范福春3月份曾對記者表示﹐希望在今年上半年推出股指期貨。

不過﹐分析師們稱﹐股指期貨的引入或將在短期內加劇股市波動﹐原因是大型股可能會在股指期貨推出後遭遇投資者的獲利回吐。

亞太其他股市方面﹐東京股市收盤走高﹐航運及金融類股上漲﹔不過﹐在豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)盤後公佈財政年度業績前﹐許多投資者都不敢輕舉妄動。日經指數收盤漲0.5%﹐至17748.12點。該指數週二下挫12.99點。

香 港股市收盤上揚﹐受亞洲其他股市的強勁表現以及上海證交所再創收盤新高共同提振。交易員預計﹐近期內恆生指數將波動於20,500至20,800點﹐因市 場均對中國大陸可能進一步推出緊縮政策而感到擔憂。但交易員表示﹐由於市場中流動性充裕﹐中期內指數有望延續漲勢。藍籌恆生指數收盤上漲138.43點﹐ 至20,844.78點﹐漲幅0.67%。

收購傳聞推動澳大利亞股市升至歷史新高﹔據稱﹐力拓(Rio Tinto)拒絕了必和必拓(BHP)提出的每股110澳元的收購提議﹐這一消息提振了兩家公司股價。此外﹐儘管聯邦預算中的稅收和支出大幅下降﹐但市場 認為﹐擴張性的聯邦預算也對股市產生了有利影響。基準S&P/ASX 200指數收盤漲36.6點﹐至6341.0點﹐漲幅0.6%﹐盤中曾創下6382.7點歷史高位。

新加坡股市收盤走高﹐交易商表示﹐主 要受地產類股走高、華僑銀行(OCBC)第一季度收益增長一倍提振。標準普爾(Standard & Poor)證券部門將海峽時報指數年底目標從3,100點上調至4,100點﹐並將新加坡股市評級從與市場一致上調至增持﹔這也給股市帶來了提振。海峽時 報指數收盤上漲13.51點﹐至3452.72點﹐漲幅0.4%。

Friday, May 04, 2007

Malaysia hit new high of 1,363 ! China Correction Soon ?


KLSE CI has break up to all time high of 1363 point today. Wow!
But the China's correction is expected to happen soon.

Greed Vs Fear !


It's wiser to heed the warning signal from China, even though we are bullish over the longer term for Malaysia.

If your stock continue to surge in coming weeks, take profits is a better choice.
If your stock is already in correction mode, then sideline and do nothing.

The best strategy now is to wait patiently for the China's market correction, get ready your cash to buy/ accumulate your targeted stock at lower price if there is panic selling in Bursa Malaysia cause by the China factor.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Child's Education Fund @ 30/4/2007














The Lionind has perform better & faster that I expected.
The KLSE is in correction mode amid fear of sharp correction on China Stock Market.

Since most of the local investors appear getting ready for the China correction, the possible impact on local market will be minimal. (hopefully)

Monday, April 23, 2007

Lionind & Muiind


My two major shares investment are Lionind & Muiind.

Lionind has surge to 1.95 on 23/4/07. If you have done your homework, you should notice that Lionind is a major shareholder of Liondiv, holding around 23.9% of Liondiv. It has biz in Properties & Steel also. If you are optimistic on Retail, Properties & Steel Industry, We should not underestimate the future prospect of Lionind. Is this the reason why Liondiv has increase their investment in Lionind in recent weeks?

My friend asked why I'm so positive on Muiind.

I always like to compare Muiind with Warrant ( others company's warrant).
It's not difficult to find warrants that market price are above 0.30, which is higher than the existing price for Muiind.

We all know that most 'warrant' is worthless if their exercise price + warrant's cost is more than the mother's market price. But a lot the warrant still more expensive than Muiind despite Muiind has assets & some good profit making biz.

It has incurred losses for the past quarters, but it's improving. The confidence will return if Muiind recover and making profits again in coming qtr.

We see it now as half empty, but you will see it as half full in near future. Just like the Bursa Malaysia.

Sunday, April 22, 2007

ACB Vs Liondiv

ACB has surge to 1.54 on 20/4/07. Why pay 1.54 for a Company without core assets ? If it's sorely due to Parkson Biz in Liondiv, why not we compare it as follow:-

A) If buy 1000 ACB at 1.54 = RM1,540. you get 250 Parkson shares after capital reduction of 4 to 1.

B) If you use RM1,540 to buy Liondiv at 8.55, you get 180 Liondiv shares. plus another 234 Parkson shares after the demerger exercise completed.

Same amount of money (1,540), in situation of A, you only have 250 Parkson shares.
In situation of B, you will get 180 liondiv shares + 234 Parkson shares.

Which one you will choose ? Don't forget the risk involve for ACB, because it's still a company without core biz now, if the demerger exercise fail, you get nothing !

Financial Planing, Investment, Credit Card


Today newspaper highlighted that more young people are using credit card as source of finance, they overspend and the amount owing to credit card company are increasing. thus there are higher number of young people are bankrupt due to credit card debts.

The above phenomena actually is a result from our existing outdated education system which totally ignore the education on finance (esp personal finance). The end results is the Country produce a lot of young people with/without excellent academic results but mostly weak in managing own finance.

ALL WE SEE & WATCH IN MASS MEDIA IS TO TELL YOU TO SPEND, SPEND & SPEND.
DO YOU NOTICE ANY INFO TO ASK U SAVE & INVEST? ALMOST NONE !

The Govt need to revamp the entire education system by introducing Financial Planning & Investment subjects in school. The current education system only teach the student on subjects like language, maths, science, history, Geography. Why no Financial Planing & Investment? This is so important and it affects our life because we all dealing in 'Cash & Money'.

Monday, April 16, 2007

Get Ready For A Pull Back

Tenaga & PBB has announce a good set of quarterly results tonight, this will push up the KLCI to new height tomorrow. Wow! New high again!

While we cheer for this, we should not be over optimistic.

A pull back is likely to happen very soon, do not chase hot stock!

BE CAUTION !!!!

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Be A Professional and Responsible Remisier


I still remember this; My friend asked my opinion when mkt dip in end Feb, she said her friend's remisier advise them to sell 'ALL' shares they owned. This particular remisier had also advise the same thing when mkt down on Thai capital control event.

Now the market has move upward again which has almost come back to the level before the Feb correction, just 10 points below the previous peak of 1280+.

A professional & responsible remisier should be able to provide better advise than 'SELL ALL' during market correction !

I really sad for those who dump their shares at the bottom price when the market dip in Feb correction.

Sunday, April 01, 2007

Portfolio as at 30/3/2007


Even Lionind latest price at 1.60, it's still under value. It's NTA as at 31/12/06 is 3.11, it's EPS for latest half year is 0.23. It's earning is improving, we will see a big jump in it's NTA after the demerger excersice by Liondiv in mid 2007.

The financial performance for Ornasteel is good. EPS for year ended 31/12/06 is 0.19, NTA is 1.68. Dividend for year 2006 is 10 sen per share.

I'm bullish for Ornasteel and extremely bullish for Lionind.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Price are Going Up, Have U Save Enough to Invest ?

Price are going UP for almost everything that you know. For cement, steel, land and house, for food & beverage, petrol, electricity, car park and toll. Everything is up and never come down.

Now the economist and financial people even predicted that we are in the century of 'Long Boom', this simply means that prices for all assets classes will go up in a faster pace in for a long period.

If you are under employment and earned less than 2,000 a month.
If you do not save a fix amount from your monthly income.
If you have no property or investment fund.

How are you going to enjoy good quality of life under the pressure of inflation.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Added a Link - Wisdom Wise


I have added a link- Wisdom Wise.

We can learn more about investing by reading his opinion on equity and investing. A good blog for how to be an Intelligent Investor.

Thanks Ben Gan for sharing his wisdom !

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Added a Link - The Value Circle

Added a link; the value circle (www.thevaluecircle.com) for those who are interested in value investing.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Lion Deversified bought Lion Industries in open Mkt

Notice LionD has accumulated LionInd shares in open mkt.
From 6/3/07 to 12/3/07, she has bt a total of 8.0 million shares. (refer BSKL announcement)

What is the intention ??
To support the shares price or another restructuring in the pipeline ?????????????

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Lessons From This Correction




This correction tell me 2 things:-

1) Bursa Malaysia is closely link to the world markets, the market sentiment and up & down will be affected by the regional market's volatility. Hence, a serious investor must be able to observe the regional markets performance.

Actually, the world index (ie NYSE, HangSeng, Nikkie, STI) has already shown weakness months before the currect correction.

2) The weak characters of our local market investors
Malaysia's investor or the retail investor tend to 'throw everything out from the window' when the market undergo correction, they sell everything base on fear & emotion rather than fundamental. This also explain why our mkt drop the most in this round of correction if compare to the others regional markets.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Child's Education Fund @ 28/2/2007


KLCI finally undergo a severe correction on 27/2/07 & today. KLCI has went down 100 point at opening time today, rebound back to closed at 1,196 point. Down 41 point.
After this round of correction, The CI will resume the bull run to retest 1,300 point. LONG TERM BULLISH REMAINED.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

LONG TERM BULLISH

Hot Hot Hot !!! The market volume has surge to 4.7 billion after Chinese New Year. The 2nd liner & Mesdaq stock is moving with a bang.

I Capital in it's latest weekly issue raise the medium/ long term KLCI target to 2,000 point. WOW!

Maybe the best strategy is to buy a few good stock & keep it. Don't sell it so easily unless the price is irresistible. Why ? Because it's LONG TERM BULLISH!

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Transaction @ 15/2/2007


Instead of buying Icap at below 1.50, I decided to use all balance cash to buy 12,000 Muiind at 0.275.
It has good potential to recover from current price.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Value Investing, Mr. Market, Margin of Safety

The transactions volume has surge pass 2.0b since last week, market sentiment is high and focus has shifted to 2nd & 3rd liner ( cheap price stock).

We see more counters has surpass recent height, more & more counter has cross RM1.00 in recent rally. But there are a lot of counters still below RM1.00 or below RM0.50.

Are those below 0.50 is cheap or those above 5.00 is expensive ?
Do you chase those cheap shares blindly in this 'hot-hot' market?

The concept of ' Value Investing', 'Mr.Market' & ' Margin of Safety' will help in answering above questions. You can find it in any books on Warren Buffett's investment philosophy.

Go read it now, you will be able to made good investment decision once you really understand the concept of VALUE INVESTING, MR. MARKET & MARGIN OF SAFETY.

Now the market attention has shifted to 'cheap stock', I find 'Muiind'(0.27) very attractive, it has the biz and possess many assets, it has recover from worse to better, the rewards will be fantastic if the company can give good results in the following years.

Friday, February 02, 2007

Child's Education Fund @ 2/2/2007


Ornasteel & Lion Industries has appreciate more than 18% & 11% respectively, more upside expected.
Still waiting for the right entry price to buy 'Icap'. Below 1.50 should be an attrative price to enter.
KLCI has surged to 1209 led by Big Cap Stock. 2nd & 3rd liner with strong fundamental should move in following weeks. It's interesting to see whether the retail player will come back into market, daily shares transactions volume will tell.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Time to accumulate undervalue stock ???

Today KLCI has resume its upward trend led by ‘Blue Chip’(1177.53), the investor may not want to left out from this rally, yet remain cautious due to fear of imminent correction.

The value investor may consider to accumulate the following ‘undervalue stock’ which downside risk is considered limited to me:-

1. Petronas Dagangan(5.20)

2. Mieco(1.26)

3. Airasia(1.45)

Again, if you have lower risk appetite, it will be better to wait for another 5%-10% discount at current price.



Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Transaction@16/1/2007

Ornasteel has reached my 1st target.
Disposed 6500 Ornasteel @ 1.25 ( RM8,075),
Bought 5000 LionInd @ 1.09 ( - RM5,500 ).
The portfolio balance as at 16/1/2007 is 7,000 Ornasteel @ 1.24 ( RM8,680) , 5,000 Lionind @ 1.10 ( 5,500) and cash of RM3,265. Total Mkt value is RM17,445.
See value in Lionind due to :
1) Will benefited from the demerger of Parkson from Liondiv
2) Better prospect in steel biz after various measures taken to improve efficiency within Lion Group.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Bad news for Silverstone & Amsteel

Announcement on 29/12/2006:

Bad news for Silverstone & Amsteel

Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ("Bursa Securities") had vide its letter dated 28 December 2006 rejected the Proposed Extension ("Rejection"). Pursuant to Paragraph 8.14C of the Listing Requirements of Bursa Securities, a suspension shall be imposed on the trading of the listed securities of the Company with effect from 9.00 am. Friday, 12 January 2007 and de-listing procedures shall be commenced against the Company.

Eventhough these 2 company will appeal against the suspension decision, the price of these companies is expected to fall as investors will rush to unload their stock to cut loss & recovered their cash.

IT'S INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IS THE REACTION ON 3/1/07 FOR OTHERS LION GROUP'S COUNTER I.E LIONCOR, LIONDIV, LIONFIB & LIONIND.

In fact, the fundamental for Lioncor, Liondiv & lionind remained unchanged and is not affected by the delisting of silverstone & Amsteel.

However, their price may drop due to market sentiment as Malaysia's retail investors is more on speculative one.

If the price drop actually happen on 3 Jan 07, this will offer an opportunity for us to accumulate more. I will enter to accumulate more if Liondiv drop below 5.80 or Lionind drop below 0.92.

Monday, January 01, 2007

My First Wish in 2007 - Child's Education Fund

I have one son ( 4 years old), and all I want to give him is good education. Since I have no faith in Malaysia's local university, I would like to sent him to oversea university when he finished his SPM.( 15 years later). Therefore I created this fund in 1/1/2007; My 1st Child's Education Fund.


I have allocated RM15,000 consist of 13,500 Ornasteel shares ( worth 14,310 @ RM1.06) and cash of RM690 as the initial investment in Child's education fund. I will invest additional RM2,000 every year in the next 14 year as the additional investment fund.

If I'm success full in my investment, average 20% annual compound returns on the investment fund will get me RM373K in year of 15th. ( refer table A)

if I can get 25%, my fund will reach RM644K in year 15th.( refer table B)

I wish I will success in my investment and the money is ready for my son's education financial needs when he reach age of 18.

( I will publish in this blog for any purchase / sell in this portfolio, and the monthly movement in market value)