Saturday, June 28, 2008

Something on I-CAP : A CLOSE END FUND

Icap is a close end fund listed in KLSE. It's managed by Mr. Tan Teng Boo, a famous, successful and highly respected fund manager.

I knew him (or rather I-Capital) from newspaper in year 2000, I subscript to his weekly after that until now. I find his analysis is one of the best in Malaysia if no the best.

I-CAP listed in Malaysia in Oct 2005, the shares price has constantly beat KLCI, went up from IPO of 1.00 to highest at 2.80 in Jan 2008. It has coming down to 1.96 on 27/6/08.

Because I-Cap is solely invest in KLSE, therefore it's performance always tract the performance of KLCI. Due to Mr Tan Teng Boo excellent performance in picking the right stocks, I-Cap NAV (net assets value) has gone up 84% up to date (in less than 3 years). An annualised return of 25% since listed up to today.

For retail investors that do not want to spend time to study/learn all the investment theories & philosophy, and prefer to invest in equity market directly & avoid unit trusts, I-Cap is the idea investment choice, but the timing to invest is vital for better returns.

Buy & Hold in I-Cap for long term will not give you the highest returns, suggest the following for you to maximise the investment returns in I-Cap :-

  1. I-Cap always traded at premium due to it's excellent record, i.e it's market price always higher than the NAV. In a prolong bear market, when market sentiment at the weakest level, it's shares price may dip below the NAV due to panic selling of it's holder. a 5% discount to it's NAV offer the investor a good opportunity to buy good fundamental undervalue stock via I-Cap. You get 5% discount from market price for many good stocks under the selection of I-Cap. A good deal!
  2. If we cant get I-Cap under the above condition (5% discount in prolong bear market), i.e. the market price never dip below the NAV (maybe all I-cap holder are Tan Teng Boo strong fans), then I suggest the interested party to wait for the market to bottom, when optimism return to shares market, when equity market started to bullish again, this is the time we re-enter the equity market via I-Cap, even we have to pay at premium of less than 8% . I-Cap will surge again because it's portfolio are comprise of good quality fundamental/under value stocks. this is the stocks that will out perform the market will the bull return.
  3. To enjoy highest returns in closed end fund (I-Cap), buy & hold is not the right strategy, we need to exit it when market is in prolong bull run, when market sentiment are hot, KLCI keep breaking record high, and the I-Cap shares price is in record premium of more than 20% over it's NAV. SELL it. The price will come down eventually when market correct.

Friday, June 27, 2008


Giap Seng : For Parkson at RM5.00, it is very attractive for me, and the business in China promise good prospects.

For MUIIND, what is the actual attractive points for you to hold on to MUIIND? You used to compared MUIIND with warrant, however, you do not touch on the strength or attractiveness of the business model of MUIIND (It has a lot of business, eg hotel, consumer, property, food, investment bank, etc).

For a stock to be qualified to be in the children education portfolio, I wish to listen to your views on MUIIND especially. I myself had gone through several articles in the Icapital, and to me, MUIIND is still a company going through re-structuring to bring down the debt. Hence, to you, is MUIIND just a turn-around play, or you actually see something which makes it qualified to be your long-term holding in the children education portfolio?

KC : I have stop updating my son's portfolio, but I still keep Muiind, lionDiv & Parkson in his portfolio.

My son's portfolio is a long term fund, I like
Muiind for it's valuable assets. To be honest, I do not do the analysis but depend on I-Cap write-up. At price of just 26 sen, it enable us to participate in a Conglomerate that owned many assets in local & overseas. (please note that it's book value is not reflective of the current market value, but at cost) The price has factor in the negative side of the Group, when Muiind finished it's job of painful restructuring, the real values of the Company will emerge.

All are about Risk & Rewards calculation, the returns will be huge if the price double in 3 years.

P/S: This is only my own opinion, I do believe you are better than me in Equity Investment, you are most welcome to express your opinion/view on any stock here!

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

鐵礦石價倍升 加劇全球通脹,加價反映新興市場需求仍強


在力拓與寶鋼達成的08年度鐵礦石協議中,寶鋼接受鐵礦石最高加價96.5%,加幅明顯高於全球最大鐵礦石生產商巴西淡水河谷今年初與中國企業 達致的約七成漲幅。市場預計,澳洲另一家鐵礦石生產商必和必拓(BHP),也將緊接力拓,於稍後顯著加價,而且加幅可能更高。《日本經濟新聞》還稱,新日 本制鐵及其他日本大型鋼鐵廠商,亦已同意接受力拓調升08年度澳洲鐵礦砂合約價格1倍的要求,顯示鐵礦石價格升勢不但強勁,且有愈升愈烈之勢。

澳企抬價 中日鋼鐵商無奈接受

《金融時報》指出,今次力拓與寶鋼達成加價協議,反映儘管美國經濟放緩,但中國、印度和中東等新興市場對商品的需求仍持續強勁。BHP的鋼鐵及煤炭部主管Marcus Randolph便說:「加價正反映這些(商品)資產的未來潛在價值。」花旗分析師Tobias Levkovich更道﹕「商品推動通脹的風險,正有增無減。」

資源及商品價格急升,即時反映在其成品之上,刺激全球通脹進一步升溫、削弱企業盈利。全球第4大鋼鐵生產商n 以反映原材料價格上升帶來的壓力;至於內地的熱軋鋼板現貨價,今年以來亦已上升接近三成,達到每噸740美元水平。

轉嫁成本 韓鋼鐵商調高成品價





Saturday, June 21, 2008

Investment Portfolio

An investment portfolio is a very good concept for Investor.

It's useful for retail Investor as well.

Just set aside your investment fund into a separate bank accounts, use it only for investment purposes.
eg invest in shares, unit trust, or FD.

It's your portfolio consist of CASH, FD, SHARES & UNIT TRUST (IF ANY).

In good time when you are bullish, you can increase your shares holding to 75%, cash 25%
When you see the market overbought & overprice, then you reduce it to 50% shares & 50% Cash.
When market depressed & you foresee a tsunami coming, you will exit the market and reduce the shares to 25% and CASH 75%.

You must treat your Investment as a Portfolio, then only you know where you stand, under invested, over-invested or all 'sleeping' in bank accounts.

In this bearish market, while we all waiting for the 2
nd tsunami & market facing with many uncertainties, a smart & success investor like 'Samgoss'( is only maintaining a 15% shares 85% Cash Portfolio.

If market being sell down, the good fundamental stock drop to attractive valuation (low PE) level, prolong bear market offer us a good opportunity to pick up good stock, then I believe most of the 'prepared' investor will increase their shares Vs Cash ratio.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Will Malaysia Existing Government Voted Out ?

SAPP's vote of no confidence against PM

KOTA KINABALU: The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) has lost confidence in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, it said at a press conference here Wednesday.

In the coming sitting of the Parliament session on Monday, its two Members of Parliament will support a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister, the party said.

Many may not believe SAPP will succeed in their 'vote of no confidence', just like we don't believe the opposition will win in 5 state govt before the march election.

SAPP is just a small party in Sabah, they will not risk losing their political power by openly confronting the Umno Government. They must have got some understanding among the MPs , both in BN & Pakatan Rakyat.



Thursday, June 12, 2008


Giap Seng: So, did the parkson at RM5.20+-, MUIIND at 0.27+- attractive enough for you to jump in again?

I find it irresistible, already went in at 5.55, plan to buy more below 5.00 & 4.60.
Muiind ? Not yet!
I catch the falling knife for LionDiv, surprise to see it rebound so fast.


2008年06月11日 07:23上海证券报 】 【打印




教训一:警惕热钱。热钱的唯一目的是逐利,但在热钱进入之初,由于 其所营造的虚假繁荣的诱惑力,非常容易让人放松警惕。而实际上,越南在过去的几年中,一直沉浸在这种虚假的繁荣中,热钱进入之初在满足越南对资金的焦渴需 求的同时,也在埋下巨大的隐患。热钱不过是罩着美丽画皮的吸血鬼,一旦牟利的意图实现,它就可能突然撤退。当热钱撤退,支撑虚假经济繁荣的基石倒塌,就容 易引发金融危机乃至整个经济危机。

虽然越南是一个小经济体,但中国却在很多方面与它有相似之处,而这 恰是最值得警惕的。今年一季度,我国外汇各项贷款增加488亿美元,同比多增462亿美元,增加18倍。而4月份的数据更甚,外汇储备余额增长744.6 亿美元,创单月外汇储备增长历史新高。其中,贸易顺差和单月外商直接投资合计增长只有242.8亿美元,“不可解释性外汇流入”高达501.8亿美元。热 钱涌入的目的是为了在短时间内获利,一旦这个过程完成,它们就可能突然撤退。对于中国而言,在无法有效阻止热钱进入的情况下,如何降低热钱的获利预期和获 利机会,避免热钱“功成身退”,将是重中之重的大问题。

教训二:不堪升值之痛。越南盾一直处于小幅升值的趋势中。今年3月 下旬,越南政府接受外国专家“以本币升值控制通货膨胀”的建议,将越南盾与外币的浮动幅度由0.75%扩大到1%。但是,快速的升值只会降低热钱获利的成 本,或者说,为热钱最后的获利了结提供方便。而一旦热钱完成套现过程,那么,本地的贬值就变得难以避免。越南就是这样一个典型。汇率幅度的扩大加快了热钱 的获利了结步伐,越南盾在短时间内由升值变为贬值,两个月内快速贬值2.6%。而美元的短期企稳,对国际热钱所产生的吸引力,又激发了热钱迫切套现离开的 冲动。

中国现在也面临着这个问题。为什么那么庞大的资金涌向中国?它们的 目的或许千奇百怪,但有一点应该是相通的,那就是坐等人民币升值,从中牟取暴利。德意志银行最新一份研究报告认为,伴随着人民币升值和后续的升值预期,实 际流入的热钱规模甚至超过今年前四个月的官方外汇储备增量,达到3700亿美元。一些投资者认为,近期内人民币汇率将破6甚至更低,这种预期给热钱带来了 巨大吸引力。越南的教训说明,快速升值不仅会吸引更多热钱进入,还会成全热钱,帮助热钱减小获利的时间成本,而不是阻止热钱的进入。现在,已到中国的热钱 都在翘首以待,坐享其成,再升值只会正中其下怀。

教训三:通胀要早治理。通货膨胀经常成为金融危机或经济危机的导火 索。由于美国采取弱势美元政策,国际上以美元计价的大宗商品价格暴涨,这种世界范围内的通胀压力传导到了地球每一个有经济活动的角落,这导致原材料成本上 升,PPI增速过快,PPI上涨压力逐渐传递到CPI,推高通货膨胀。而且,热钱投机行为不断推升股市和房价,进一步加剧通胀压力。同时,由于原材料成本 上升,企业利润下降,竞争力下降,民众的整体收入水平也下降,使得部分通胀压力无法通过自我修复机制得到化解。因此,今年5月,越南CPI涨幅达到 25.2%,创下1992年以来最高水平,在存款利率为负值的情况下,民众对本币失去了信任感,纷纷将越南盾兑换成黄金或美元,导致越南盾急速贬值,最终 引发金融危机。

与越南相比,中国也面临着比较大的通胀压力,但中国从去年CPI刚 开始上涨的情况下,就开始实行紧缩货币政策,抑制流动性。同时,采取各种鼓励措施,加大猪肉、粮食的生产和供给,有效防止了食品类价格的失控。同时,中国 对房地产和股市采取了调控措施,并抑制电价、油价的上涨,以换取缓解通胀压力的时间。因此,迄今为止,中国国内经济运行状况良好。但是,对于房地产的调 控,效果仍不够明显。同时,由于经济发展对外依存度较高,对于输入型通货膨胀的抵御能力仍是中国的薄弱环节,是需要警惕的。

教训四:股市和房地产泡沫要早日挤压。从2005年到2007年3 月12日的两年多时间中,越南股市涨了5倍。到2007年1月份时,越南股市指标股的平均市盈率就已高达73倍,成为“世界增长率最高的股市”,越南监管 部门对外资入场不仅不限制,甚至还采取鼓励的政策,使得国际游资安全地获取丰厚利润。但是,当游资完成获利过程后,就获利了结,对股市汇市双向做空,使越 南资本市场惨遭灭顶之灾。越南股市自今年5月初开始下跌,在至今为止的短短一个多月时间里,跌幅已经达到64%,可谓惨烈之至。

同时,最近几年,越南地价、房价持续上涨,持续时间长达十年。由于 地价上涨过快,投资于越南胡志明市工业园的国外投资者要付出两倍于泰国曼谷工业园的租金价格,降低了越南的竞争力。而在房价上涨过程中,银行推波助澜。据 摩根斯坦利的估计,贷款一直在以每年超过35%的速度增长。房价、地价的持续上涨,累积了大量泡沫,最终成为助推这次金融危机的重要力量。现在,越南大、 中城市的房地产价格平均下跌已达50%以上,由于这次下跌是泡沫的集中爆发,其强度已经完全超出了政府可控范围。

与越南的情况相比,中国股市经过调整,估值已经回归到合理水平,市 盈率即使与发达资本市场相比,也基本上具有了长期投资价值。关键是房地产市场,由于房价的涨跌与地方政府关系密切,许多地方政府变相抵制宏观调控政策,导 致房地产调控从2005年至今始终未能产生明显效果(只有深圳、广州等地的房价有较深调整)。越南的教训告诉我们,没有永远只涨不跌的房价,如果不提前通 过调控挤压房地产市场中的泡沫,将不得不面对可怕的隐患。我国房价与越南一样,经历了一个长达十年的上涨周期。国际上公认的衡量房价合理程度的指标——房 价收入比,通常为3倍至5倍,而在我国几个大城市的中心城区,这一比值已经高达30倍甚至40倍以上。早日挤压泡沫会承受阵痛,但这种阵痛仍是在可承受范 围内的,等到泡沫自发破灭时,后果将不堪设想。


Tuesday, June 10, 2008


Overcoming inflation

Comment by C.S. TAN

The Star 10th June 2008

As we cut spending on less essential items, we have to try to earn more.

IT'S a painful time for the consumer as prices surge for basic goods – petrol, rice, chicken, pork, fish, flour and bread.

At the same time, manufacturers bear the brunt of higher energy and raw material costs while the Government faces the force of higher costs for steel and cement for its infrastructure projects.

There are no winners in an inflationary environment.

One of the obvious causes of this trend is the Second Wave of the contact with communist China as it steadily embraced free markets over the last 15 years.

In the First Wave, China supplied the world with consumer goods produced cheaply by a few hundred million workers. That produced a benign effect.

As the 1.3 billion Chinese people obtain higher incomes and become consumers like us, they produce a demand shock as the supply of crude oil and other commodities cannot be proportionately increased. The huge investment in commodity futures by hedge funds and pension funds probably raised prices further.

The world will have to live with high consumer prices for some time. This may be an extended inflationary spiral like the 1970s.

It is often said that people in the middle class should trim their budget as prices soar. That becomes impractical within a short time when the budget is cut to the bone and there’s nothing left to cut.

When times get tough, it’s usually not useful or right to blame the Government, or blame our parents. As we cut spending on less essential items, we have to try to earn more, or “Learn to Earn” as fund manager Peter Lynch put it in his book of the same title.

Good companies will not only reduce costs; they will also have a plan to increase revenue. Likewise, we need short-, medium- and long-term plans to earn more money.

An immediate plan could be to take on a second job. That has long been the path for those who need a higher income.

A medium-term plan can be a willingness to take on more responsibility in one's job for a higher salary. In the longer term, we need to upgrade our skills and education so as to meet the criteria for a job that pays more.

We need to be more productive to earn a higher total income so that we can still afford the same or even more consumer goods. Higher subsidy is not the solution for us to maintain our standard of living as prices rise.

In these difficult times, everyone has to share, and be seen to share, the financial pain. It was therefore apt that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said yesterday the Government would be cost conscious and trim its own budget. This is a time when the people will watch very closely how the Government spends the billions of ringgit under its stewardship.

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Prices for Everything Go Up, Grow your Money Tree

If you feel the pressure from the Price hike, if your are just a salary earner, one thing that you can do and you should do immediately:-


You may ask how ? since you have nothing left in pocket every month end, salary is barely enough to cover the monthly expenses.

By hook or by cook, you have to do it, bite the bullet, DO IT NOW!

I suggest this steps for you to start with:-

Allocate a fixed amount from your pay cheque for saving,
save it in a separate bank accounts monthly. The balance for monthly expenses.

Change your lifestyle, adjust your spending so that you will never overspend.


There are many ways, suggest you some ideas:-
  • Buy Monday Nanyang Siang Pau, make it a habit to read 'Cold Eye' column in Finance Section.
  • Buy a 'Cold Eye' Share Investment Book, you can find it in any Popular book shop, I rate it a entry level investment book, suitable for those totally new in share investment.
  • Make it a habit to read financial section in any Newspaper. Prefer 'The Star' and 'Sin Chew'
Just to get a first hand experience on what is actually a share market.





Thursday, June 05, 2008

小小記錄卡 理財大幫手




























Douglas R. Sease

Where Does Your Money Go? Find Out

Where Does Your Money Go? Find Out.
June 1, 2008

You really don't know where it all goes, do you?

I'm talking about your money, specifically the paycheck you get every week or two weeks or each month. You deposit it and pretty soon you realize that most of it is gone.

If you're fortunate, by the time you realize most of it is gone, the next one is about to arrive. That means you're just about breaking even. It also means you aren't saving and investing enough.

You need to open what I call a 3x5 savings account.

Don't worry, it isn't hard to do. It just takes a little willpower and a little time. But the rewards can be huge: more money than you probably thought was possible, money that can fund anything up to and including early retirement.

How to Begin

Here's how to do it. Get yourself a pack of 3x5 index cards. Label one of those cards 'Week of June 1.' Put it in your shirt pocket or purse along with a ballpoint pen. Now, for the whole week, under daily headings, jot down every single cent you spend and what you're spending it on.

Cup of coffee? Write it down. Tank of gasoline? Write it down? New purse? Ditto. Oh, and when you get your next paycheck, write down the take-home amount, too, on your 3x5 card.

At the end of the month you'll have four cards that will provide you with a very detailed record of where your money came from and where it went. It might take 30 minutes to tote it all up, but you'll know if you're exceeding your income, playing it close to the edge, or actually saving money to invest.

Congratulations, you're on your way to financial discipline and all the rewards it can bring.

It probably sounds too simple. After all, there's Quicken and other software to help us track our finances, and our banks and credit-card companies offer us detailed monthly statements. We should have plenty of information about where our money is going if we only take the time to examine it. But, of course, we don't take the time to do that.

And even if we did, those tidy looking statements don't capture a lot of the money we spend in seemingly negligible cash transactions. And it's hard to remember, looking at a credit-card statement, precisely what it was we purchased from Macy's or Amazon.

Firsthand Experience

My wife, Jane, and I started a 3x5 account many years ago when we were shocked and surprised that the profits from a house sale had simply disappeared a year later. I had counted on those profits to form the core of a savings program that would allow us, over the years, to buy a boat and save enough to retire early and go sailing.

We both resolved -- that's important because this plan won't work if everyone isn't playing the game -- to figure out where in the world the money was going. The weekly 3x5 cards were the vehicle to do it.

Much was revealed in the first month alone. Restaurants were a primary villain. We had moved to New York from Detroit and were reveling in the variety and quality of dining opportunities suddenly available. And going broke as a result.

The bad part was that most of the meals hadn't been worth what they cost. Good, yes. Memorable, no. We resolved to indulge our own penchant for cooking more often.

To give you an idea of when all this was happening, compact-disc players had just come on the scene and to a classical-music buff like me the earth had moved. But my ambitious plan to replicate my extensive collection of vinyl records with CDs was another major drain on our resources.

When I realized how much I was spending via my 3x5 cards, I immediately saw the value in continuing to enjoy my vinyl records, buying CDs only when a disc of note was released. I can only imagine the number of 99-cent entries my card would show today were I addicted to an iPod.

The revelations of that first month of 3x5 entries were astounding. The changes we made immediately in our spending habits probably added well over $10,000 to our savings in the first year. And while later gains were incrementally smaller, they nevertheless added up. When we combined periodic raises at work with increasingly detailed efforts to save, the results became very impressive.

Mind you, we kept the exercise simple: take-home pay matched against expenses. We didn't try to include gains (or losses) from investments. The point was to build an investment portfolio out of routine cash flow, not to measure our constantly fluctuating net worth.

Secrets of Success

The 3x5 account turned out to be a great vehicle for saving for several reasons. First, of course, it was invaluable to have a real-time record of all our expenses.

But there was an equally important psychological benefit. Psychologists talk about 'buyer's remorse,' the feeling you get when a new purchase doesn't really turn out to be as fulfilling as you had thought. By committing ourselves to record every purchase at the time we made it, Jane and I often experienced buyer's remorse before we actually bought something.

Do I really need this? More often than not, we answered no and put the item back on the shelf.

Because we had ambitious plans for the future we stuck to our 3x5 accounts for years until we reached our goals. But in reality it only took a year or two to build the discipline that allowed us to control our spending and save and invest conscientiously.

Try it. It you stick with it for a while, a 3x5 account will work for you, too.

Douglas R. Sease