Tuesday, March 24, 2009

美買毒產方案效果成疑

美買毒產方案效果成疑
股市照升 追落後買匯控
2009年3月24日



【明 報專訊】美國財長蓋特納「精心炮製」的買銀行毒產方案昨晚公布,內容設計是公私資金共同投資,共享盈虧,不過,方案並未給予投資者吸引的「甜頭」,買「毒 產」的誘因嫌不足,很難想像可以吸引大量私人資金,更遑論像財政部所想方案最多可吸納萬億美元「毒產」,真有點天方夜譚。

不過,環球股市昨天因方案早已預先張揚而炒起,昨晚美股開市早段升勢雖然稍為收斂,但其後公布2月二手房屋銷售回升了5.1%,為6年來最大升幅,雖然,中位數樓價仍跌15.5%,但道指早段升幅仍擴大至325點,股市動力比想像中強,買「毒產」方案看來只是一個升市的藉口而已。

環球新興股票市場近期表現甚佳,不少今年以來已錄得升幅,以亞洲區為例,上證升了27.7%,台股升了11.6%,韓股亦漲了16.67%,反而恒指仍錄得跌幅6.5%,而國指則微升0.86%,資金若要追落後,港股市場將可受惠。

貨源流入強手 匯控追落後

恒指昨天升了613點,收報13447點,成交增加至553億元。中資股及本地地產股帶覑指數急升,短線在環球股市升浪帶動下,昨天本欄預期的調整相信暫不會出現,短線恒指有機會上試14000點,突破後便會挑戰15000點,匯控(0005)及本地房地產股較為落後,值博率可能較高,在未來的升市中料會扮演重要角色,因為自2月開始,大笨象便一直受供股傳聞所困擾,落後於恒指(圖1),本周供股權開始買賣,亦意味覑供股權開始流入強手中,昨天匯控供股權(2997)成 交達2.1億份,較上周五英國的買賣還多,看來不少「心碎」的匯控小股東拒絕再玩,一早沽出供股權,匯控早上股價曾跌至39.3元,供股權最低報10.8 元,但午後正股及供股權開始收復失地,股價在收市時更倒升0.25元,報41.7元,供股權則收報13.2元。配合歐洲銀行股的信貸違約風險溢價近期亦見 回落(圖2)。會有利匯控逐步追上大市,大笨象不失為追落後之選,匯控股價在紐約升至47港元。

毒產方案乏「甜頭」

美 國政府公布的買毒產方案,方向正確,但具體操作的成效仍是未知數,財政部會選出約5家基金經理,各自向市場集資買毒產,基金每集資1元,財政便會出1元股 本共同投資,這些公私參與投資的基金將採買入並長期持有的策略,投資年期最長10年,基金可向聯儲局或財政部借貸,並以買入的「毒產」作抵押,借貸額是基 金股本最多1倍,槓桿比率沒有之前傳出那麼高。財政部指該計劃最多可買入1萬億美元的毒產。

「毒產」的買賣決定會由基金經理負責,定價也是 基金與有關金融機構之間的事。初步看來,方案並無特別,投資者若有興趣買入「毒產」,其實,早可以在二手市場或是向銀行買入,有沒有政府的方案,分別不 大,政府並無給予參與的投資者「甜頭」,例如政府先承擔某比例的投資損失等,唯一可以說是甜頭是獲政府或聯儲局借貸買「毒產」,以提高基金槓桿率。所以, 這個方案是否能吸引大量私入資金投入,實令人有點懷疑。

為銀行「解毒」 始能恢復信貸

不論是聯儲局主席 伯南克,還是財長蓋特納,均扭盡六壬要解決的難題令銀行恢復正常信貸,由於銀行之運作受到「毒產」阻礙,放貸意欲不高,所以,昨晚美國政府宣布一系列「解 毒」措施,方向正確。只有這樣,才能降低借貸成本。對於借款人而言,實質的借貸成本受兩方面的因素影響,一是名義利率,二是通脹預期。

聯儲局上周公布會把資產負債表擴大逾萬億美元,拖低了美元,也是希望能刺激通脹預期,減低大家對通縮的憂慮。

企業與個人借貸成本於海嘯後大幅上揚,以美林綜合利率減至通脹率後,得出的實際利率達7厘(圖3),雷曼破產前實質借貸利率才不過1.5厘,所以,通脹預期高一些,對借貸者是有利。

當然,最重要的還是銀行能恢復正常的信貸,降低放貸利率,令央行的寬鬆貨幣政策能在實體經濟中體現,這也是為何昨天在美國即將推出買銀行「毒產」方案前,環球股市十分雀躍。

撰文:江宗仁

Thursday, March 19, 2009

ZAID IBRAHIM, U HAS SPEAK OUT THE PEOPLE'S MIND



If truth be told, he can't be PM

Zaid Ibrahim | Mar 18, 09 1:51pm

MCPX

The following is the hard-hitting speech by former law minister Zaid Ibrahim at the Royal Rotary Club of Kuala Lumpur today.

comment This is the second time I have been invited to address a Rotary Club. Thank you for the honour. Given the times we live in, perhaps it might be appropriate for me to speak about the leadership transition that has been foisted upon us Malaysians.

I say ‘foisted’ because neither me nor anyone in this room had any role or say in the choice of the person who will lead Malaysia next. We were mere bystanders in a political chess game. And yet the transition is a subject of great consequence to the nation, one I would say is of great national interest.

Leadership is definitive; the individual who assumes the mantle of leadership of this nation, whomever that may be, is one who for better or worse will leave his mark on us. His will be the hand who guides us to greater success, or possibly gut-wrenching disaster.

Save for the dawn of Merdeka, never in the history of this country has the choice of prime minister been so crucial: Malaysia is in crisis. We are facing tremendous economic challenges with unavoidably harsh socio-political consequences. Our much undermined democracy is once again being assailed by those who would prefer a more autocratic form of governance.

Our public institutions are hollowed out caricatures, unable to distinguish vested party interests from national ones, unable to offer the man in the street refuge from the powerful and connected.
Our social fabric that took us from colony to an independent nation and on through the obstacles of nation building has reached a point where it sometimes feel like we are hanging on by a thread. This is the Malaysia we live in.

PM’s resignation ill-fated

This is the Malaysia which Abdullah Ahmad Badawi leaves behind. Our prime minister will resign later this month - an ill-fated decision. I say ill-fated not because he has been a great prime minister and we would lose irreplaceable leadership, that is regrettably not the case as all things said and done, Abdullah could have done much more for Malaysia.

Rather, I say that his resignation is ill-fated because his departure will expose the country to forces which may take us down the road of perdition faster than ever. Much has been said of Pak Lah being a weak leader. However, what his critics have not adequately addressed are the consequences of replacing him as prime minister with the anticipated incoming president of Umno, Najib (Abdul) Razak.

It is an undeniable truth that the average Malaysian is anxious about the anticipated transition. Many would prefer it did not happen.

bn supreme council abdullah announcement 081008 02There are two reasons why this is so. The first has to do with the reasoning underlying Umno's demand for the transition itself. The second has to do with Najib personally.

We must recall that after the 2008 general election - a great success for the nation but a fiasco for Umno – one of the chief complaints by the powers-that-be within Umno was that Abdullah’s feeble leadership led to the concept of Ketuanan Melayu being challenged and ultimately undermined.

His critics also lashed out at him for the latitude given to civil society, a move which they believed weakened a key aspect of Umno's political leverage. It followed in Umno's mind that in order to regain lost ground, it was necessary to reassert its ideology with greater strength.

There was nostalgia for Mahathir's heavy-handed style of leadership and a return to the times when the party cowed many into subservience and submission.The conservatives in Umno yearned for a return to Mahathirism, hoping that it would become a cornerstone of the leadership transition plan. There has been much speculation and punditry on whether a return to the Mahathir era would be good for Malaysia.

Difference between then and now


Let me offer some of my own insight to this debate. The major difference between then and now is this: in most instances, Mahathir was harsh and dictatorial if he believed it was good for the country. But an authoritarian style of government under anyone else would be dictated by the need for self preservation and very little about the country’s interest.

The evidence is all around us. After March 8, (2008) when the prime minister ceased being the home minister, the threats of reprisal have escalated and a climate of fear re-cultivated. The detention of Raja Petra Kamarudin, Teresa Kok and Tan Hoong Cheng exemplify this turn for the worse, this appetite to use the sledgehammer.

The shameful power grab in Perak and wanton disregard for public opinion over how BN wrested control of the silver state make many people shudder at the prospect of a return to the dark days. If that was not depressing enough, we have had to bear witness to the police and the newly-minted Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) displaying their allegiance and support to the BN when all we needed and craved for were honest brokers.

It stands to reason that in the mind of the average Malaysian, having suffered a significant loss last March, Umno is on a rampage to regain what it lost by any method available and the man who is expected to lead it to victory is the man who succeeds Abdullah: Najib (Abdul) Razak.

A prime minister must have the confidence of the majority of the rakyat. In order for this to be the case, his integrity must be beyond question; not only must he be such a person character, he must be seen to be such a person. The office of prime minister is one of great trust, he who holds that office cradles the nation in his palms.

For this to be the case, there cannot be anything in the mind of the greater public that, correctly or otherwise, associates him with matters of criminality, wrongful action, improper conduct or abuses of power. In short, he must be beyond reproach in his dealings both official and private.

Without intending any accusation, it is regrettable that in the collective mind of the rakyat, Najib is not such a person. If a referendum were to be conducted on the subject or if the prime minister was to be elected directly by the rakyat, I do not think Najib would succeed. The reason for this is obvious: the rakyat has doubts, fuelled by the unanswered allegations against him and his unwillingness to confront these allegations.

It is not a mere trifle in the minds of the rakyat that despite a direct challenge from a member of parliament in the august House recently, the deputy prime minister remained silent, not even denying the implicit accusation made against him and demanding that it be repeated outside the chamber in the tried and tested method of refutation employed by parliamentarians throughout the world.

It has not assisted the cause of the incoming prime minister that the MP concerned was suspended for a year on a motion tabled by a fellow minister without the member having been afforded an opportunity to defend his position.

Evidence of SMS text-messages

Consider this. Commissions were paid to an agent for the procurement of submarines through the Defence Ministry, Najib (then) being the defence minister. It is unthinkable that he had no knowledge that the agent was his adviser and aide, Abdul Razak Baginda. The commission paid out was exceedingly large, in excess of RM400 million.

The defence minister was dutybound to direct enquiries to see if there had been any impropriety in the way the contracts were awarded when news of the commission surfaced; after all the price of the submarines would be considerably lower without the need for such commissions.

Taxpayers, you and I, have paid for those submarines at a price that in all probability factored in the commission. Taxpayers are yet to be told of an inquiry let alone the result of such an inquiry.
Consider the Altantuya Shaariibuu affair. A young woman was brutally murdered, her corpse destroyed by explosives.

These explosives are not the usual type of explosives, yet no inquiry was held to determine how they were available to these killers. Those accused of her murder are police officers serving in the Unit Tindakan Khas, a highly specialised unit who amongst other things serve as bodyguards to the prime minister and the deputy prime minister.

Amidst evidence that the accused were employed to protect the PM and the DPM, they were directed to (Abdul) Razak Baginda through the aide of the deputy prime minister. Amongst other things, we have heard of the senior investigating officer admitting that the deputy prime minister was an important witness and yet no statement was taken.

It is not unreasonable to think that this is irregular, more so when evidence of SMS text-messages from the deputy prime minister concerning material matters have surfaced. The text-messages cannot be ignored, proverbially swept under the carpet.

Even if they do not establish - or are not capable of establishing - any culpability on the part of Najib, these issues must be addressed.

The air must be cleared, it is thick with accusations and doubts which can only undermine the office of the prime minister if he were to assume it. The deputy prime minister's cause has not been aided by the fact that charges were preferred against (Abdul) Razak Baginda only after public outcry, the manner in which the prosecution was conducted and the decision of the High Court acquitting (Abdul) Razak Baginda not having been appealed.

Power grab an unmitigated disaster

The Perak affair was an unmitigated disaster for the nation. It is no secret that Najib led the charge there and is still overseeing matters.

In the minds of Malaysians, Perak is synonymous with the deputy prime minister. They now equate him with the high-handed tactics that were employed to seize power, tactics that included the disappearances of the three crucial assemblypersons and the blockading of the legislative assembly by the police.

In doing so, they equate the DPM with the hijacking of democracy, the only persons saying otherwise being those persons who have associations with Umno. In their minds, no responsible leader would allow for the undermining of the institutions of state and the constitution of this nation.

They ask, rightly so, whether this is the kind of leadership that Malaysians can expect from Najib when he becomes the prime minister.

With all of this, and more, how are we not to feel anxious? How are we to sleep peacefully at night? I know that I cannot. The situation is desperate and the air is pregnant with tension. We need the state of affairs to be resolved in a way that is in the best interests of the nation and the rakyat.

To an extent, this is a matter for the Barisan Nasional. I urge its members to put politics aside and think things through. We all want a better future, a safer and more prosperous life for our children, all of them, a Malaysia where our children can reach for the stars with the certainty that there is nothing to stop them from being the Malaysians they want to be.

Let the king be kingmaker

I do not believe that the Barisan Nasional will do what is necessary. Politics has a tendency of making those who embrace it cynical. The answer lies elsewhere, with His Majesty the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.

In this case, His Majesty plays the role of ‘kingmaker’. The discretion to appoint the prime minister who succeeds Abdullah lies with His Majesty. Though His Majesty is required under the constitution to appoint the person who commands the confidence of the majority of the members of parliament, it is a matter for His Majesty's judgment.
Never before has such a heavy burden being laid on His Majesty to make a brave and correct choice.

For King and country, I urge His Majesty to take into consideration the prerequisites to appointment and the concerns of the rakyat. There is no constitutional obligation on His Majesty to appoint the president of Umno as the prime minister. There are still well qualified members of parliament from Umno who can be appointed PM to bring us back from the brink.

Malaysia needs someone who the rakyat can throw their weight behind without reservation. Someone they can trust and respect. Someone who has no scandal to distract him and thereby gain respect from the international community.

These are difficult times and be prepared for worst times to visit us. Malaysia needs a leader who will unite the country in the face of the adversity. Divided, we are weak. I am loath to say it, but for the reasons I have set out am compelled to say that Najib will most certainly divide us and in doing so, will nudge us closer to the edge.

Some of you may say that all efforts to promote the national interest are at this stage an exercise in futility. If truth be told, I am tempted to slip into cynical hopelessness too. I am fighting the temptation to give up for one simple reason: Malaysia and all that it represents. This is a blessed country, a country too valuable for us to turn our backs on.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

SAKURA ? TOKYO ?



THIS IS NOT SAKURA IN TOKYO
A BEAUTIFUL SCENE IN PRAI, PENANG.

Monday, March 16, 2009

THE PEOPLE ARE WATCHING

Malaysiakini.com :

Outspoken DAP stalwart Karpal Singh is expected to be charged under the Sedition Act tomorrow in relation to his threat to sue the Perak ruler over the political crisis in the state.

The People are watching, ALL Malaysian know what is happening now, using Sedition Act to attack Oppositions is SILLY.

The UMNO Govt has make mistakes in using ISA against a chinese reporter last year, now they make it again by using Sedition Act against a MP.

UMNO GOVt indeed never learn.

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Conduct State Election to Resolve Perak Crisis




指议长有权在议会厅外开州会
律师公会支持选举解宪政危机
3月3日 晚上8点25分
ambiga sreenevasan律师公会主席安美嘉(左图)指出,在霹雳州所发生的宪政危机,是史无前例并涉及复杂的司法议题,虽然无法针对所有的事件作出总结,但是有些课题仍可以透过普世的原则来作出判断。

警方违抗议长听取错误劝告

zambry file suit 020309 fru她指出,今日共有27名霹雳州议员遭怡保警区主任挡驾进入州政府大厦,禁令显然是州议会秘书所发出的。

“如今州议会秘书的角色开始受到检视,他是一名公务员,仅是负责州内的行政事务。因此州议会秘书无权决定或诠释,究竟一场州议会是合法还是非法。所以警方已经错误地听取其劝告,并违抗州议长的命令。”

安美嘉认为,怡保高庭接下来所发生的事件,更加剧了这些错误。

议长没委任州法律顾问抗辩

在法庭上,身为辩方的国阵律师认为,议长应该由州法律顾问所代表,而非由私人律师所代表。安美嘉认为,虽然这个看法拥有法律上的根据,但是必须更深入地使用普世原则,来检视州法律顾问的地位。

首先,每个律师必须先获得其客户的委托。议长已经表明他不曾委任州法律顾问代表或为他抗辩。这是法庭必须在还未开庭之前须先证实的一件事。

委州法律顾问产生利益冲突

其次,安美嘉表示,州法律顾问的身份拥有利益冲突。因为,目前在吉隆坡高庭开审的“民联大臣起诉国阵大臣”一案中,州法律顾问正代表国阵大臣赞比里进行抗辩,因此他怎么能够在另一边厢又代表议长,对付赞比里呢?

她说,如果控辩双方对于案件有信心的话,那么就不应该以任何行动破坏案件的公正与公平,导致审讯蒙上污点。

她重申,正义不仅要获得实现,更要以人们看得见的方式加以落实。法庭有责任秉持最高的正义、公正和独立原则,而三权分立的原则须受尊重,必须维护联邦宪法。

议长毫无选择行使广泛权力


perak state govt crisis state adun assemble under the rain tree 030309针对议长西华古玛今早改在州政府大厦附近的停车场,召开紧急州议会的举措;安美嘉表示,西华古玛是在毫无选择之下,被迫使用其广泛的权力,在议会厅外的地点举行紧急议会。

她说,虽然此举可能掀起争议,但须了解的是,目前的局势是史无前例的,而且议会常规也不足以概括所有的可能性,因此议长有权依据当时的情况运用其权力。

她指出,议长和州议员被警方阻止进入议会厅,已经让人严重质疑警方行动的合法性。

她说,她不奇怪有人会对此事再次入禀法庭,而民众将继续面对不稳定的局势。

安美嘉坚持,重新举行选举是唯一能够解决当今的不稳定局势,随着紧急州议会议决解散州议会,已经开启了一扇机会之窗,来重新举行选举,让人民做出选择。