WHY TRY TO TIME THE MKT- MY COMMENT ON 'SHARE INVESTMENT'

FROM SHARE INVESTMENT BLOG ( http://liqua2534.blogspot.com/ )

BAD DAY

Bad Day of me, a tactic used by to speculating is out. Yesterday I have managed select 2 stocks to play. But is did not help me minimise the lose. Accumulated lose is big and next week must settled it. Otherwise, account will be temporary suspend.

Of course, this is not because of KLSE equity market did not stable. Mainly due to I am a speculator and time of buying in is wrong. Holders might not same situation as me. I am facing a riches and funder hit. They trying kick off those speculator like me.Foreign funds instruction of purchase is difference. They giving an order with price range. Normally they buying at price range of 10 cents for penny stocks and 50 cents for heavy weight counter. Example buying from 1.10 to 1.20. So, we can see the price jump up at 5 minutes with high volume with upper trend. After that the price will consolidated at that level.Speculator like me if buying with them will auto kick off when reaching on the due day.

My method is out but benefit to holders. Life is going on and now, this game will become more interesting.

MY COMMENT :-

At a time like this, when the worse is over & we see the economy & stock market starting its recovery,the Buy & Hold may be better strategy for rally will last for 2-3 years.

Why attempt to time the market when we are convince that the world economy will recover by the year end or early next year?

This is a beginning of multi year rally which buy & hold a good undervalue stock should give the investor a handsome rewards.

The only factor now is on how to select a undervalue stock that can offer 100% returns in 1 or 2 years time.

(Picture: Hindu Temple in Penang )

THE MONEY FOLLOW WHERE THE GROWTH IS

I believe in Icap statement that THIS IS A BEGINNING OF A NEW BULL RALLY, NOT BEAR MARKET RALLY.

Now the financial Crisis is finally over, Western Countries has printing new money to rescue their banking institutions, created more & more liquidity in the system with almost ZERO interest.

This money will follow where the GROWTH is, ie ASIA.

This week we witness a SURGE in Asia Equity market & Strong Asian Currency.

A NEW BULL MARKET HAS BEGIN IN ASIA.

THE RALLY WILL BECOME STRONGER ONCE THE FUNDS HAS CONVINCE THE BULL MARKET HAS RETURN & CONFIDENCE RETURN TO MARKET.

BUT BE REMINDED THAT ONLY TAKE POSITION IN GOOD FUNDAMENTAL & UNDER VALUE STOCK, NEVER NEVER BUY INTO BAD APPLE.

(Picture: Kek Lok Si Temple, Penang)

Confident is more important than Gold !

Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao has commented that ' Confident is more important than Gold', when referring to measures taken to resolve Financial Crisis.

Same goes to Stock Market.

A rally will resume after a pause, if the investor/punter have faith on the stock market. The investing attitude of the investor will determine the direction of the market.

Will you dump your stock if the market go down ? or
You will hold your stock for the 'Value', not the price.

We need not fear a Market Correction or Consolidation, the positive factors that contributed to RALLY such as market liquidity, year end economy recovery still intact.

Every rally will have correction, rally will resume after a pause.

(Picture: Penang Hill, Funicular Rail Way, Penang)

Beware ! Are U trap into rotational PLAY

Rotational play!

It’s good to make money from stock market, all involve in stock market will make money as most of the stocks will go up, whether it’s good fundamental or badly managed losing company.

Judging from the active counters that all are penny stocks, the retail investor must be reminded of the following typical mistake :-

Typical mistake that retail investor make ->

1. Invest in good fundamental BIG CAP stock, take profit after price went up 20%, then wait at sideline.


2. Jump into market again when seeing the stock rally again, use the money to buy 2^nd liner good fundamental stock, take profits after price went up 20%, then wait at sideline.

3. Market rally again after short consolidation, jump into market again & use all the money to invest again in PENNY stocks, this time do not care whether it’s good stock or loss making company, so long as the price look CHEAP.

WHEN MARKET EVETUALLY GO TRO CORRECTION, ALL STOCK PRICE COME DOWN, THOSE WHO HOLDING THE PENNY STOCK & NOT WELLING TO LET GO, WILL END UP HOLDING USELESS COUNTER, SUFFERED HUGE LOSES & EXIT FROM THE STOCK MARKET.

(Picture: Penang Hill, Georgetown, Penang)

股神：大有機會增中國投資

(明報)5月4日 星期一 05:05

【明報專訊】在股價下跌的陰霾下，著名投資公司巴郡周六在奧馬哈召開年度股東大會，股神巴菲特及拍檔芒格接受股東提問。巴菲特表示，認可奧巴馬 連串救市行動。他對巴郡未來充滿信心，指喪失AAA評級並不影響巴郡業務。巴菲特亦為投資比亞迪 辯護，稱未來「大有機會增加在中國的投資」。

但願買入更多比亞迪股權

巴菲特（Warren Buffett）及巴郡副主席芒格（Charlie Munger）周末在5小時內回答股東連串提問。一名來自中國的股東問及巴郡會否在中國有更多投資計劃，巴菲特說﹕「中國是個大市場，將來或者有機會買入 更多業務。若可以，我們可能早已買入比亞迪超過10％股權了，但他們只願賣給我們這麼多。只要中國有顯著的貿易盈餘，人民幣資產便會繼續累積。」芒格則說 ﹕「我對中國處理自己（經濟）事務的手法，只有欣賞。」他讚揚中國的金融政策，表示中國將是其他國家難以匹敵。

讚中國金融政策「他國難敵」

有股東質疑巴郡入股比亞迪的決定，指投資比亞迪並非「價值投資」，而是「創業基金投資」，要求解釋。一手促成巴郡入股的芒格稱，比亞迪前途光明，他說﹕「這是家小公司，但雄心壯志。」

巴菲特亦在會上談到奧巴馬的救市行動，「整體來說，他所實行的行動我是讚賞的」。但他補充，因為經濟經歷了「金融颶風」，沒人應期待完美。他表示自 己無法預測經濟及市場要多快才有改善。有股東問他對華府出手救AIG的做法，會否令納稅人付出沉重代價時，巴菲特則指付出代價的會是持有大量國債的中國。 「納稅人並沒有付出分毫。有中國官員曾說擔心美國 國債的回報，我想他是有道理的。所有海外美元 合約的持有者，回報將會減少，這是一大問題。」

「美救AIG 中國付代價」

雖然巴郡股價自去年9月起便下跌了超過30％，但巴菲特對巴郡持有的銀行股卻表示樂觀。華府對19間金融機構進行壓力測試，預料周四（7日）便有結 果。但巴菲特對壓力測試毫不在乎，並唱好巴郡持有的富國銀行，稱它為「棒極」的銀行。問道壓力測試會否令他更了解巴郡持有的銀行股份時，他說﹕「我相信我 對他們的未來知道得比那些匆匆來望一眼的人多。若可以，我想買下整間富國和US Bancorp。」

懶理壓力測試 「幹勁」評估銀行

他稱，壓力測試可能有點像清單檢查的模式，但他自己則以銀行的「幹勁」（dynamism）及吸引存款能力來作評估。他以可口可樂 為例，「若你只看可口可樂的資產表，資產表一點也不會告訴你可口可樂是什麼。關乎的是產品。」巴郡持有最多股份的公司是可口可樂，其次便是富國銀行。

今次股東大會有破紀錄3.5萬人出席，大批人在會場外購買巴郡旗下公司的產品。但《華爾街日報 》引述股東會常客稱，今年的掌聲並不如往年熱烈。答問大會結束時，巴菲特的姪孫突然向女友求婚，對方答應，令答問大會在歡樂氣氛下結束。

THE FIVE LIONS

After 1997/8 financial crisis, The huge debts Lion Group went tro a series of restructuring and their assets regroup under this 5 lions in KLSE :-

1. Amsteel Corp Bhd


2. Lion Diversified(cum Parkson)


3. Lion Industries


4. Lion Corp


5. Lion FIB

In 2007, Amsteel Corp has been put under PN17, then delisted in KLSE.

Now we only have 4 Lions left in KLSE. (plus 1 Parkson) under Lion Group.

Lately when market stage a rebound from bottom, all 2nd/3rd liner has started very big jump from their price, including all this 3 Lions, ie LionCorp, LionDiv & LionInd.

All 3 are involve in STEEL INDUSTRIES, but NOT ALL are the same qualities in term of financial strength & biz performance.

Out of these 3 Lions, Lion Corp is the weakest one, it's burden with large debts, high cost of operations, low NTA, bad cash flow (or worse, negative cash flow) and still facing high risk of being INSOLVENT.

It's due to the above -ve factors that I never touch LionCorp. ( In contrast, I always like LionInd & Liondiv)

NOW WE SAW LIONCOR HAS JUMP UP IN PRICE WITH ACTIVE VOLUME (from low of 0.155 IN 12/3/09 to Thur closing of 0.395 in 30/4/09).

IS THIS VALUE AN ILLUSSIONS !

DO WE BUY STOCK ONLY FOR BELIEVING IT'S PRICE WILL JUMP ?

(Picture: Khoo Kongsi, Georgetown, Penang)