Something on I-CAP : A CLOSE END FUND

Icap is a close end fund listed in KLSE. It's managed by Mr. Tan Teng Boo, a famous, successful and highly respected fund manager.

I knew him (or rather I-Capital) from newspaper in year 2000, I subscript to his weekly after that until now. I find his analysis is one of the best in Malaysia if no the best.

I-CAP listed in Malaysia in Oct 2005, the shares price has constantly beat KLCI, went up from IPO of 1.00 to highest at 2.80 in Jan 2008. It has coming down to 1.96 on 27/6/08.

Because I-Cap is solely invest in KLSE, therefore it's performance always tract the performance of KLCI. Due to Mr Tan Teng Boo excellent performance in picking the right stocks, I-Cap NAV (net assets value) has gone up 84% up to date (in less than 3 years). An annualised return of 25% since listed up to today.

For retail investors that do not want to spend time to study/learn all the investment theories & philosophy, and prefer to invest in equity market directly & avoid unit trusts, I-Cap is the idea investment choice, but the timing to invest is vital for better returns.

Buy & Hold in I-Cap for long term will not give you the highest returns, suggest the following for you to maximise the investment returns in I-Cap :-

1. I-Cap always traded at premium due to it's excellent record, i.e it's market price always higher than the NAV. In a prolong bear market, when market sentiment at the weakest level, it's shares price may dip below the NAV due to panic selling of it's holder. a 5% discount to it's NAV offer the investor a good opportunity to buy good fundamental undervalue stock via I-Cap. You get 5% discount from market price for many good stocks under the selection of I-Cap. A good deal!
2. If we cant get I-Cap under the above condition (5% discount in prolong bear market), i.e. the market price never dip below the NAV (maybe all I-cap holder are Tan Teng Boo strong fans), then I suggest the interested party to wait for the market to bottom, when optimism return to shares market, when equity market started to bullish again, this is the time we re-enter the equity market via I-Cap, even we have to pay at premium of less than 8% . I-Cap will surge again because it's portfolio are comprise of good quality fundamental/under value stocks. this is the stocks that will out perform the market will the bull return.
3. To enjoy highest returns in closed end fund (I-Cap), buy & hold is not the right strategy, we need to exit it when market is in prolong bull run, when market sentiment are hot, KLCI keep breaking record high, and the I-Cap shares price is in record premium of more than 20% over it's NAV. SELL it. The price will come down eventually when market correct.
   

MUIIND - A CONVERSATION

Giap Seng : For Parkson at RM5.00, it is very attractive for me, and the business in China promise good prospects.

For MUIIND, what is the actual attractive points for you to hold on to MUIIND? You used to compared MUIIND with warrant, however, you do not touch on the strength or attractiveness of the business model of MUIIND (It has a lot of business, eg hotel, consumer, property, food, investment bank, etc).

For a stock to be qualified to be in the children education portfolio, I wish to listen to your views on MUIIND especially. I myself had gone through several articles in the Icapital, and to me, MUIIND is still a company going through re-structuring to bring down the debt. Hence, to you, is MUIIND just a turn-around play, or you actually see something which makes it qualified to be your long-term holding in the children education portfolio?

KC : I have stop updating my son's portfolio, but I still keep Muiind, lionDiv & Parkson in his portfolio.

My son's portfolio is a long term fund, I like Muiind for it's valuable assets. To be honest, I do not do the analysis but depend on I-Cap write-up. At price of just 26 sen, it enable us to participate in a Conglomerate that owned many assets in local & overseas. (please note that it's book value is not reflective of the current market value, but at cost) The price has factor in the negative side of the Group, when Muiind finished it's job of painful restructuring, the real values of the Company will emerge.

All are about Risk & Rewards calculation, the returns will be huge if the price double in 3 years.

P/S: This is only my own opinion, I do believe you are better than me in Equity Investment, you are most welcome to express your opinion/view on any stock here!

鐵礦石價倍升 加劇全球通脹,加價反映新興市場需求仍強

明報專訊】澳洲礦業巨擘力拓(Rio)與中國最大鋼鐵生產商寶鋼達成協議，破紀錄地把鐵礦石加價接近1倍，不僅衝擊了全球鋼鐵業，也加劇了市場對全球通脹加劇的憂慮。英國《金融時報》便指出，今次協議意味汽車和其他鋼鐵機械產品的成本勢將上升，進一步推高全球通脹。

在力拓與寶鋼達成的08年度鐵礦石協議中，寶鋼接受鐵礦石最高加價96.5%，加幅明顯高於全球最大鐵礦石生產商巴西淡水河谷今年初與中國企業 達致的約七成漲幅。市場預計，澳洲另一家鐵礦石生產商必和必拓(BHP)，也將緊接力拓，於稍後顯著加價，而且加幅可能更高。《日本經濟新聞》還稱，新日 本制鐵及其他日本大型鋼鐵廠商，亦已同意接受力拓調升08年度澳洲鐵礦砂合約價格1倍的要求，顯示鐵礦石價格升勢不但強勁，且有愈升愈烈之勢。

澳企抬價 中日鋼鐵商無奈接受

《金融時報》指出，今次力拓與寶鋼達成加價協議，反映儘管美國經濟放緩，但中國、印度和中東等新興市場對商品的需求仍持續強勁。BHP的鋼鐵及煤炭部主管Marcus Randolph便說：「加價正反映這些(商品)資產的未來潛在價值。」花旗分析師Tobias Levkovich更道﹕「商品推動通脹的風險，正有增無減。」

資源及商品價格急升，即時反映在其成品之上，刺激全球通脹進一步升溫、削弱企業盈利。全球第4大鋼鐵生產商n 以反映原材料價格上升帶來的壓力；至於內地的熱軋鋼板現貨價，今年以來亦已上升接近三成，達到每噸740美元水平。

轉嫁成本 韓鋼鐵商調高成品價

分析家指出，鋼鐵商勢將成本上漲，轉嫁給建築公司及汽車生產商等客戶。日本經濟財政特任大臣大田弘子昨指出：「原物料價格已經對企業獲利造成負面影響，尤其是中小型企業。」

事實上，鐵礦石、煤炭和其他原材料成本的上升，正令到全球鋼鐵價格以至整體通脹大幅上漲，也令到鋼鐵買家，尤其是建築行業用戶對此愈來愈不滿，土耳其、意大利、印度和俄羅斯等也都因此出現示威和罷工，導致當局要為凍結鋼鐵價格而立法。為了減民怨抑通脹，不少國家只好各出其謀，例如印度便向國內的鐵礦石出口商，徵收15%的高出口稅率，變相鼓勵多將鐵礦石內銷，減少對外國鐵礦石入口的依賴。

今年商品價格升勢強勁，紐約油價昨連續第3天上升，升至每桶138美元水平，逼近歷史高位；至於提煉自鐵礦石的銅，紐約商品期貨交易所(COMEX)的期銅價格，自年初至今亦上升超過兩成，倫敦金屬交易所(ＬＭＥ)的期鋁價格，今年也累計上升約25%。

撰文：基斯羅

Investment Portfolio

An investment portfolio is a very good concept for Investor.

It's useful for retail Investor as well.

Just set aside your investment fund into a separate bank accounts, use it only for investment purposes. eg invest in shares, unit trust, or FD.

It's your portfolio consist of CASH, FD, SHARES & UNIT TRUST (IF ANY).

In good time when you are bullish, you can increase your shares holding to 75%, cash 25%
When you see the market overbought & overprice, then you reduce it to 50% shares & 50% Cash.
When market depressed & you foresee a tsunami coming, you will exit the market and reduce the shares to 25% and CASH 75%.

You must treat your Investment as a Portfolio, then only you know where you stand, under invested, over-invested or all 'sleeping' in bank accounts.

In this bearish market, while we all waiting for the 2nd tsunami & market facing with many uncertainties, a smart & success investor like 'Samgoss'(www.samgang.blogspot.com) is only maintaining a 15% shares 85% Cash Portfolio.

If market being sell down, the good fundamental stock drop to attractive valuation (low PE) level, prolong bear market offer us a good opportunity to pick up good stock, then I believe most of the 'prepared' investor will increase their shares Vs Cash ratio.

Will Malaysia Existing Government Voted Out ?

SAPP's vote of no confidence against PM

KOTA KINABALU: The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) has lost confidence in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, it said at a press conference here Wednesday.

In the coming sitting of the Parliament session on Monday, its two Members of Parliament will support a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister, the party said.

Many may not believe SAPP will succeed in their 'vote of no confidence', just like we don't believe the opposition will win in 5 state govt before the march election.

SAPP is just a small party in Sabah, they will not risk losing their political power by openly confronting the Umno Government. They must have got some understanding among the MPs , both in BN & Pakatan Rakyat.

JUST LIKE WHAT ANWAR HAS SAID: WE HAVE THE NUMBER!

JOM UBAH!

PARKSON

Giap Seng: So, did the parkson at RM5.20+-, MUIIND at 0.27+- attractive enough for you to jump in again?

I find it irresistible, already went in at 5.55, plan to buy more below 5.00 & 4.60.
Muiind ? Not yet!
I catch the falling knife for LionDiv, surprise to see it rebound so fast.

越南金融危机的四大教训

2008年06月11日 07:23上海证券报【大 中 小】 【打印】

越南金融危机到底是一个孤立的现象，还是像引爆东南亚金融危机的泰国一样，即将成为点燃一场新的区域金融危机的导火索，暂且不论。鉴于中国与越南经济方面的许多相似之处，我们应该未雨绸缪，防患于未然，严防热钱兴风作浪、避免人民币快速升值、提前预防通货膨胀、进一步挤压楼市泡沫，防止危机向我国蔓延。

几乎在没有任何明显征兆的情况下，越南就突然陷入了金融危机之中，自由落体速度之快，令人瞠目结舌。

越南金融危机到底是一个孤立的现象，还是像引爆东南亚金融危机的泰国一样，即将成为点燃一场新的区域金融危机的导火索？虽然我们尚且无法对此作出明确的判断，但有一点却是肯定的，越南的教训需要我们认真吸取，未雨绸缪，尽快采取措施避免危机向我国蔓延。

教训一:警惕热钱。热钱的唯一目的是逐利，但在热钱进入之初，由于 其所营造的虚假繁荣的诱惑力，非常容易让人放松警惕。而实际上，越南在过去的几年中，一直沉浸在这种虚假的繁荣中，热钱进入之初在满足越南对资金的焦渴需 求的同时，也在埋下巨大的隐患。热钱不过是罩着美丽画皮的吸血鬼，一旦牟利的意图实现，它就可能突然撤退。当热钱撤退，支撑虚假经济繁荣的基石倒塌，就容 易引发金融危机乃至整个经济危机。

虽然越南是一个小经济体，但中国却在很多方面与它有相似之处，而这 恰是最值得警惕的。今年一季度，我国外汇各项贷款增加488亿美元，同比多增462亿美元，增加18倍。而4月份的数据更甚，外汇储备余额增长744.6 亿美元，创单月外汇储备增长历史新高。其中，贸易顺差和单月外商直接投资合计增长只有242.8亿美元，“不可解释性外汇流入”高达501.8亿美元。热 钱涌入的目的是为了在短时间内获利，一旦这个过程完成，它们就可能突然撤退。对于中国而言，在无法有效阻止热钱进入的情况下，如何降低热钱的获利预期和获 利机会，避免热钱“功成身退”，将是重中之重的大问题。

教训二:不堪升值之痛。越南盾一直处于小幅升值的趋势中。今年3月 下旬，越南政府接受外国专家“以本币升值控制通货膨胀”的建议，将越南盾与外币的浮动幅度由0.75%扩大到1%。但是，快速的升值只会降低热钱获利的成 本，或者说，为热钱最后的获利了结提供方便。而一旦热钱完成套现过程，那么，本地的贬值就变得难以避免。越南就是这样一个典型。汇率幅度的扩大加快了热钱 的获利了结步伐，越南盾在短时间内由升值变为贬值，两个月内快速贬值2.6%。而美元的短期企稳，对国际热钱所产生的吸引力，又激发了热钱迫切套现离开的 冲动。

中国现在也面临着这个问题。为什么那么庞大的资金涌向中国？它们的 目的或许千奇百怪，但有一点应该是相通的，那就是坐等人民币升值，从中牟取暴利。德意志银行最新一份研究报告认为，伴随着人民币升值和后续的升值预期，实 际流入的热钱规模甚至超过今年前四个月的官方外汇储备增量，达到3700亿美元。一些投资者认为，近期内人民币汇率将破6甚至更低，这种预期给热钱带来了 巨大吸引力。越南的教训说明，快速升值不仅会吸引更多热钱进入，还会成全热钱，帮助热钱减小获利的时间成本，而不是阻止热钱的进入。现在，已到中国的热钱 都在翘首以待，坐享其成，再升值只会正中其下怀。

教训三:通胀要早治理。通货膨胀经常成为金融危机或经济危机的导火 索。由于美国采取弱势美元政策，国际上以美元计价的大宗商品价格暴涨，这种世界范围内的通胀压力传导到了地球每一个有经济活动的角落，这导致原材料成本上 升，PPI增速过快，PPI上涨压力逐渐传递到CPI，推高通货膨胀。而且，热钱投机行为不断推升股市和房价，进一步加剧通胀压力。同时，由于原材料成本 上升，企业利润下降，竞争力下降，民众的整体收入水平也下降，使得部分通胀压力无法通过自我修复机制得到化解。因此，今年5月，越南CPI涨幅达到 25.2%，创下1992年以来最高水平，在存款利率为负值的情况下，民众对本币失去了信任感，纷纷将越南盾兑换成黄金或美元，导致越南盾急速贬值，最终 引发金融危机。

与越南相比，中国也面临着比较大的通胀压力，但中国从去年CPI刚 开始上涨的情况下，就开始实行紧缩货币政策，抑制流动性。同时，采取各种鼓励措施，加大猪肉、粮食的生产和供给，有效防止了食品类价格的失控。同时，中国 对房地产和股市采取了调控措施，并抑制电价、油价的上涨，以换取缓解通胀压力的时间。因此，迄今为止，中国国内经济运行状况良好。但是，对于房地产的调 控，效果仍不够明显。同时，由于经济发展对外依存度较高，对于输入型通货膨胀的抵御能力仍是中国的薄弱环节，是需要警惕的。

教训四:股市和房地产泡沫要早日挤压。从2005年到2007年3 月12日的两年多时间中，越南股市涨了5倍。到2007年1月份时，越南股市指标股的平均市盈率就已高达73倍，成为“世界增长率最高的股市”，越南监管 部门对外资入场不仅不限制，甚至还采取鼓励的政策，使得国际游资安全地获取丰厚利润。但是，当游资完成获利过程后，就获利了结，对股市汇市双向做空，使越 南资本市场惨遭灭顶之灾。越南股市自今年5月初开始下跌，在至今为止的短短一个多月时间里，跌幅已经达到64%，可谓惨烈之至。

同时，最近几年，越南地价、房价持续上涨，持续时间长达十年。由于 地价上涨过快，投资于越南胡志明市工业园的国外投资者要付出两倍于泰国曼谷工业园的租金价格，降低了越南的竞争力。而在房价上涨过程中，银行推波助澜。据 摩根斯坦利的估计，贷款一直在以每年超过35%的速度增长。房价、地价的持续上涨，累积了大量泡沫，最终成为助推这次金融危机的重要力量。现在，越南大、 中城市的房地产价格平均下跌已达50%以上，由于这次下跌是泡沫的集中爆发，其强度已经完全超出了政府可控范围。

与越南的情况相比，中国股市经过调整，估值已经回归到合理水平，市 盈率即使与发达资本市场相比，也基本上具有了长期投资价值。关键是房地产市场，由于房价的涨跌与地方政府关系密切，许多地方政府变相抵制宏观调控政策，导 致房地产调控从2005年至今始终未能产生明显效果（只有深圳、广州等地的房价有较深调整）。越南的教训告诉我们，没有永远只涨不跌的房价，如果不提前通 过调控挤压房地产市场中的泡沫，将不得不面对可怕的隐患。我国房价与越南一样，经历了一个长达十年的上涨周期。国际上公认的衡量房价合理程度的指标——房 价收入比，通常为3倍至5倍，而在我国几个大城市的中心城区，这一比值已经高达30倍甚至40倍以上。早日挤压泡沫会承受阵痛，但这种阵痛仍是在可承受范 围内的，等到泡沫自发破灭时，后果将不堪设想。

与中国相比，越南是一个比较小的经济体，但是，鉴于越南与中国的许多共同点，对于越南金融危机，我们应该认真研究、未雨绸缪，防患于未然。（作者系经济学博士）

LEARN TO EARN

Overcoming inflation

Comment by C.S. TAN

The Star 10th June 2008

As we cut spending on less essential items, we have to try to earn more.

IT'S a painful time for the consumer as prices surge for basic goods – petrol, rice, chicken, pork, fish, flour and bread.

At the same time, manufacturers bear the brunt of higher energy and raw material costs while the Government faces the force of higher costs for steel and cement for its infrastructure projects.

There are no winners in an inflationary environment.

One of the obvious causes of this trend is the Second Wave of the contact with communist China as it steadily embraced free markets over the last 15 years.

In the First Wave, China supplied the world with consumer goods produced cheaply by a few hundred million workers. That produced a benign effect.

As the 1.3 billion Chinese people obtain higher incomes and become consumers like us, they produce a demand shock as the supply of crude oil and other commodities cannot be proportionately increased. The huge investment in commodity futures by hedge funds and pension funds probably raised prices further.

The world will have to live with high consumer prices for some time. This may be an extended inflationary spiral like the 1970s.

It is often said that people in the middle class should trim their budget as prices soar. That becomes impractical within a short time when the budget is cut to the bone and there’s nothing left to cut.

When times get tough, it’s usually not useful or right to blame the Government, or blame our parents. As we cut spending on less essential items, we have to try to earn more, or “Learn to Earn” as fund manager Peter Lynch put it in his book of the same title.

Good companies will not only reduce costs; they will also have a plan to increase revenue. Likewise, we need short-, medium- and long-term plans to earn more money.

An immediate plan could be to take on a second job. That has long been the path for those who need a higher income.

A medium-term plan can be a willingness to take on more responsibility in one's job for a higher salary. In the longer term, we need to upgrade our skills and education so as to meet the criteria for a job that pays more.

We need to be more productive to earn a higher total income so that we can still afford the same or even more consumer goods. Higher subsidy is not the solution for us to maintain our standard of living as prices rise.

In these difficult times, everyone has to share, and be seen to share, the financial pain. It was therefore apt that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said yesterday the Government would be cost conscious and trim its own budget. This is a time when the people will watch very closely how the Government spends the billions of ringgit under its stewardship.

Prices for Everything Go Up, Grow your Money Tree

If you feel the pressure from the Price hike, if your are just a salary earner, one thing that you can do and you should do immediately:-
GROW YOUR MONEY TREE !!

You may ask how ? since you have nothing left in pocket every month end, salary is barely enough to cover the monthly expenses.

By hook or by cook, you have to do it, bite the bullet, DO IT NOW!
THERE ARE NO OTHER WAY, SAD TO SAY.

I suggest this steps for you to start with:-

1) START SAVING
Allocate a fixed amount from your pay cheque for saving, save it in a separate bank accounts monthly. The balance for monthly expenses.

2) CHANGE LIFESTYLE
Change your lifestyle, adjust your spending so that you will never overspend.

3) START READING TO ENHANCE YOU INVESTING / MONEY KNOWLEDGE. (SOME CALL IT F.Q.)

There are many ways, suggest you some ideas:-

• Buy Monday Nanyang Siang Pau, make it a habit to read 'Cold Eye' column in Finance Section.
• Buy a 'Cold Eye' Share Investment Book, you can find it in any Popular book shop, I rate it a entry level investment book, suitable for those totally new in share investment.
• Make it a habit to read financial section in any Newspaper. Prefer 'The Star' and 'Sin Chew'

4) VISIT SHARE BROKING BRANCH
Just to get a first hand experience on what is actually a share market.


5) START INVESTING

ONLY DO THIS WHEN YOU HAVE ACCUMULATED A CAPITAL SUM FROM YOUR SAVING AND ACQUIRED ENOUGH F.Q. FROM STEP 3.


6) READ MORE AND MORE INVESTING BOOK FROM THE GREAT GURU.

BY DOING THIS, THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE IS TO HAVE AN INVESTMENT INCOME THAT LARGER THAN YOUR MONTHLY SALARY IN YEARS LATER. SLOWLY BUT SURELY.

小小記錄卡 理財大幫手

你

的確不知道它都到哪裡去了﹐是嗎？

我說的是你的錢﹐特別是你每一、兩週或每月得到的工資。你把錢存下後不久就會發現大部分錢都花掉了。

如果你運氣好﹐在你意識到錢花得差不多了時﹐下一筆錢就又要到帳了。這意味著你正好能做到收支相抵。這也意味著你沒有足夠的錢儲蓄和投資。

你需要開一個我稱之為3x5的儲蓄賬戶。

不要擔心﹐要做到這點並不麻煩﹐僅需要一點毅力和一點時間即可。但回報卻是巨大的：省下的錢可能會超過你的想象﹐這筆錢能為你做任何事情﹐甚至包括提前退休。


如何開始


具體做法是：為自己準備一疊3x5的索引卡。給其中一張標上“6月1日當週”。將卡片同一支圓珠筆一起放到襯衣口袋或是錢包中。現在﹐以天為單位寫下全周你的每一分支出和將這筆錢花到哪方面了。

喝了杯咖啡？記下來。加了箱油？寫下來。買了個新錢包？也寫下來。還有﹐當你得到下一筆薪水時﹐也將數字寫在3x5卡的收入欄中。

到月底時﹐你就會有4張卡片﹐它們非常詳細地記錄了你的錢來自哪裡﹐又花到哪裡去了。你可能需要30分鐘才能將它們完全理順﹐但由此你能瞭解是收不抵支、基本平衡﹐還是能賺下錢來投資。

祝賀你﹐你現在已經開始執行財務紀律了﹐你會收獲它能帶來的所有回報。

這聽起來似乎過於簡單了。畢竟﹐市面上有Quicken等軟件可以幫助我們跟蹤財務狀況﹐我們的銀行和信用卡公司也每月提供收支明細。只要我們花點時間核對﹐我們會有足夠的信息瞭解錢花到哪裡去了。但是﹐我們並沒有花時間這麼做。

廣告

即使我們做了﹐這些外觀整潔的表格也不會記錄下我們花掉的許多看似無足輕重的小錢。只從信用卡帳單上也很難記起我們到底從Macy's或亞馬遜(Amazon)購買了什麼。


第一手經驗


我的妻子簡(Jane)和我多年前就開始使用3x5卡記帳了﹐起因是我們對出售一套房子的獲利僅用一年時間就揮霍一空深感震驚。我還曾指望用這筆錢建立一個核心儲蓄賬戶呢﹐想著這能讓我們過幾年後買條船﹐並存下足夠的錢提前退休﹐享受航海樂趣。

我們倆都決心搞清楚這筆錢都花到哪裡去了﹐這點至關重要﹐因為如果大家都稀里糊塗的話﹐那這個計劃根本無法執行。3x5週卡就是實現這個目標的利器。

第一個月就揭示出了許多真相。餐館就是罪魁禍首。我們當時從底特律搬到了紐約﹐各種美食不禁讓我們大快朵頤﹐入不敷出也就順理成章了。

不足之處是大部分飯菜不能算是物有所值。好吃不假﹐但回味無窮卻談不上。我們決定更多地在家裡做飯﹐滿足自己的口味。

從下面的敘述中你可以瞭解這一切發生的大致時間：CD播放機剛剛出現﹐對於我這樣的古典音樂迷來說﹐這是一個全新的世界。但我用CD翻錄我收藏的大量磁帶的宏偉計劃是我們的另一個大黑洞。

在我通過我的3x5卡認識到我花了多少錢時﹐我立刻看到了繼續欣賞我的磁帶、而只在發佈新專輯時購買CD的價值。我能想象如果自己現在對iPod上了癮﹐我3x5卡上的99美分支出條目會有多麼可觀。

第一個月3x5條目中揭示出來的情況讓人震撼。我們立刻改變了支出習慣﹐這在第一年中大概為我們省下了10,000多美元。儘管以後增加的金額就越來越少了﹐但畢竟還是在增加。當我們把定期增加的工資同越來越詳盡的節約努力結合起來時﹐結果就更令人印象深刻。

要提醒你的是﹐我們的方法很簡單：僅需詳細記錄家庭收入與開支。我們沒有加入投資損益。這樣做是為了把投資組合排除到日常的現金流之外﹐不考慮我們資產淨值的經常性波動。


成功的秘密


3x5記錄卡之所以是理想的節約工具有多個原因。首先當然是它能實時記錄我們的所有開支﹐這也是最有價值的地方。

但它也有同樣重要的心理益處。心理學上有“顧客反悔”一說﹐即新購買的商品並未給你帶來當初想象的那種滿足感。我們答應要在購買商品時立刻記錄下來﹐這樣簡和我經常在實際購買前就經歷了顧客反悔。

我真的需要這件商品嗎？我們的回答常常是否定的﹐然後就會把它擱回到貨架上。

因為我們對未來雄心勃勃﹐所以我們多年來一直堅持記錄3x5卡﹐直到達到目標為止。但實際上只需要用一兩年的時間養成紀律﹐我們就能控制支出﹐盡職盡責地節約和投資。

試一下吧。如果堅持一段時間﹐3x5記錄卡也會給你帶來好處。

Douglas R. Sease

Where Does Your Money Go? Find Out

Where Does Your Money Go? Find Out.
By DOUGLAS R. SEASE
June 1, 2008

You really don't know where it all goes, do you?

I'm talking about your money, specifically the paycheck you get every week or two weeks or each month. You deposit it and pretty soon you realize that most of it is gone.

If you're fortunate, by the time you realize most of it is gone, the next one is about to arrive. That means you're just about breaking even. It also means you aren't saving and investing enough.

You need to open what I call a 3x5 savings account.

Don't worry, it isn't hard to do. It just takes a little willpower and a little time. But the rewards can be huge: more money than you probably thought was possible, money that can fund anything up to and including early retirement.

How to Begin

Here's how to do it. Get yourself a pack of 3x5 index cards. Label one of those cards 'Week of June 1.' Put it in your shirt pocket or purse along with a ballpoint pen. Now, for the whole week, under daily headings, jot down every single cent you spend and what you're spending it on.

Cup of coffee? Write it down. Tank of gasoline? Write it down? New purse? Ditto. Oh, and when you get your next paycheck, write down the take-home amount, too, on your 3x5 card.

At the end of the month you'll have four cards that will provide you with a very detailed record of where your money came from and where it went. It might take 30 minutes to tote it all up, but you'll know if you're exceeding your income, playing it close to the edge, or actually saving money to invest.

Congratulations, you're on your way to financial discipline and all the rewards it can bring.

It probably sounds too simple. After all, there's Quicken and other software to help us track our finances, and our banks and credit-card companies offer us detailed monthly statements. We should have plenty of information about where our money is going if we only take the time to examine it. But, of course, we don't take the time to do that.

And even if we did, those tidy looking statements don't capture a lot of the money we spend in seemingly negligible cash transactions. And it's hard to remember, looking at a credit-card statement, precisely what it was we purchased from Macy's or Amazon.

Firsthand Experience

My wife, Jane, and I started a 3x5 account many years ago when we were shocked and surprised that the profits from a house sale had simply disappeared a year later. I had counted on those profits to form the core of a savings program that would allow us, over the years, to buy a boat and save enough to retire early and go sailing.

We both resolved -- that's important because this plan won't work if everyone isn't playing the game -- to figure out where in the world the money was going. The weekly 3x5 cards were the vehicle to do it.

Much was revealed in the first month alone. Restaurants were a primary villain. We had moved to New York from Detroit and were reveling in the variety and quality of dining opportunities suddenly available. And going broke as a result.

The bad part was that most of the meals hadn't been worth what they cost. Good, yes. Memorable, no. We resolved to indulge our own penchant for cooking more often.

To give you an idea of when all this was happening, compact-disc players had just come on the scene and to a classical-music buff like me the earth had moved. But my ambitious plan to replicate my extensive collection of vinyl records with CDs was another major drain on our resources.

When I realized how much I was spending via my 3x5 cards, I immediately saw the value in continuing to enjoy my vinyl records, buying CDs only when a disc of note was released. I can only imagine the number of 99-cent entries my card would show today were I addicted to an iPod.

The revelations of that first month of 3x5 entries were astounding. The changes we made immediately in our spending habits probably added well over $10,000 to our savings in the first year. And while later gains were incrementally smaller, they nevertheless added up. When we combined periodic raises at work with increasingly detailed efforts to save, the results became very impressive.

Mind you, we kept the exercise simple: take-home pay matched against expenses. We didn't try to include gains (or losses) from investments. The point was to build an investment portfolio out of routine cash flow, not to measure our constantly fluctuating net worth.

Secrets of Success

The 3x5 account turned out to be a great vehicle for saving for several reasons. First, of course, it was invaluable to have a real-time record of all our expenses.

But there was an equally important psychological benefit. Psychologists talk about 'buyer's remorse,' the feeling you get when a new purchase doesn't really turn out to be as fulfilling as you had thought. By committing ourselves to record every purchase at the time we made it, Jane and I often experienced buyer's remorse before we actually bought something.

Do I really need this? More often than not, we answered no and put the item back on the shelf.

Because we had ambitious plans for the future we stuck to our 3x5 accounts for years until we reached our goals. But in reality it only took a year or two to build the discipline that allowed us to control our spending and save and invest conscientiously.

Try it. It you stick with it for a while, a 3x5 account will work for you, too.

Douglas R. Sease