Saturday, May 31, 2008

加時10分鐘 港股大混亂

加時10分鐘 港股大混亂 (星島) 05月 31日 星期六 05:30AM

在大摩MSCI指數成分股調整昨收市後生效之際,利用收市競價的十分鐘「嘜高」個別股份收市價,引來市場嘩然與混亂,如中電在下午四時報六十五點三五元,但四時十分竟被推高至七十點五元,湖南有色 在四時仍微升報二點九六元,但四時十分卻被質低至倒跌一成報 二點六一元,而該十分鐘的交易高逾一百四十億元。港交所則「力撐」有關時段運作如常。

  本報財經組

  收市後競價交易時段是由本周一開始,頭四日(即本周一至周四)確無甚「看頭」,期間每日交投維持在約二十一億元水平,但昨天卻「數級跳」,十分鐘交投已佔全日成交的一成六,個別股份價格的異常波動,更令投資者無所適從,如蒙古 能源,全日大部分時間均「潛水」,正常交易時段最後報價不足十五元,仍跌逾百分之三,市後交易卻突然「變身」抽升,還要創新高收市,倒升逾一成四。

  不少投資者察覺這類罕見的異動,先是懷疑報價系統出錯,同時也向經紀查詢,部分還向監管機構詢問甚至投訴,證監會 表示,就昨日收市競價交易時段出現股價波動,共收到二十四宗查詢四宗投訴。

  港交所「力撐」運作如常

  港交所以至證券界均相信,昨天市後交易的異常,「罪魁禍首」是大摩指數(即MSCI指數)成分股「執位」生效,因而帶動個別大戶調整投資組合。港交所 在新聞稿中指出,昨天收市競價交易時段運作如常,在大摩指數調整成分股時市場出現波動亦並非不尋常,交易所會監察市場活動,若發現有任何不尋常情況,即會 向證監會報告。

  中電飆五元 湖南有色倒插一成

  港交所發言人又說,很多散戶甚至證券行,均忘記大摩指數成分股變動生效一事,以為昨天的市後時段出現錯盤交易,其實港交所早已提醒業界,在股票指數成 分股變動生效時,相關股份收市價可能會出現波動,股價波動以往亦常出現,不是修改收市競價交易時段措施的理由,但若市場有更好建議且理由合理,亦歡迎提 出。

  昨天市後交易「異常」的股份,大部分確是與大摩指數成分股「執位」相關股份,但並非全部大摩指數新貴均上升,如網龍、金山軟件與波司登便逆市下挫。

  至於中電、中鐵建與香格里拉均非今次指數新貴,股價一樣被弄得「翻天覆地」,老牌藍籌公用股中電向來少有異動,昨天非但在市後交易飆逾五元,成交還漲至二十一億餘元,當中四成多是市後交易,其中被剔出大摩指數成分股的湖南有色,更由升變跌逾一成。

  市場人士估計,大戶因應大摩指數成分股「執位」調整投資組合,對中電等現有成分股的比重也會略有改變,因為中電交投向來較少,遂被額外的買盤推動股價。

  大摩成分股執位被指「禍首」

  對於市後交易個別股份價格昨天突然「失控」,新鴻基 金融策略師彭偉新認為,除了來自與大摩指數相關的買賣盤外,可能尚有大戶眼見大市成交增加而覺得有機可乘,在市後交易動腦筋,但相信當市場熟習運作後,情況應有改善。

  議員向周文耀了解情況

  立法會 金融服務界別議員詹培忠 表示,股價出現異常波動,有造市之嫌,已致電港交所行政總裁周文耀了解。港交所上市委員會委員許照中亦說,有必要蒐集期間的交易數據,了解是否有人在操控市場,呼籲港交所及監管部門檢討有關政策,盡快找尋方法堵塞漏洞。

散戶不滿捱打 被勸勿玩「競價」 (星島) 05月 31日 星期六 05:30AM

(星島日報 報道)昨天個別股份在市後交易急升驟跌,報價在十分鐘內可以相差超過一成,惹來不少散戶非議,有人激動地指如此「嘜價」有如「造市」。無論如何,只要現時的收市競價交易時段的機制不變,昨天的情況隨時重演,散戶須考慮如何自保。

  「個價根本係假」

  一位小投資者眼見昨天市後交易的「異狀」後直指:「個價(指收市價)根本係假的!」他其實已知道報價機的收市價是市後交易的「結果」,並非錯價,但卻 對收市價操控於大戶在市後交易的活動,極度不滿:「中電係大藍籌,一樣可以『嘜高』,唔通股份在正常交易時段成日得出的價,唔夠市後交易造出的價合理?」

  專家:應只做限價盤

  在市後交易機制暫未改變下,散戶唯有想方法自保。第一上海 證券策略員葉尚志認為,應該在收市時將所有未完成的買賣盤取消;新鴻基 金融策略師彭偉新則說,大家在市後交易應只做限價盤,雖然排在競價盤(即市價盤)之後,但可保證成交價不會超出預算。

  也有對市後交易機制失望的市場人士戲言,散戶根本應該「唔玩」完全離場,皆因收市價被扭曲後,根本無從對股份作技術分析,時富證券研究部董事羅尚沛便 認為散戶「冇得玩」,但認同股票仍可抱長铫投姿態度,若能不理短暫非理性的股價波動,對股份定下目標價再循此買賣,也應該可行。

Friday, May 30, 2008

房市泡沫的教訓

房市泡沫的教訓

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2008年05月30日08:50
我 們把對房市、抵押貸款和信貸市場的不安情緒轉向一路上漲的油價之前﹐還是先總結一下在過去幾個月裡都學到了些什麼吧。房市出現了泡沫﹔這一點現在看來已是 無庸置疑了。不過房市泡沫又是如何產生的呢?為什麼泡沫破裂讓我們如此痛苦不堪?如果沒有找到這些問題的答案﹐我們就不能指望今後不會重蹈覆轍。

產生房市泡沫的根源有三:金融專家、監管機構和評級機構。

金融專家是華爾街的魔法師﹐他們發明了理應能廣泛分散風險的證券﹐而實際上這些證券卻產生了超出合理水平的過多的槓桿。

上個世紀80年代的儲蓄-貸款問題是由華盛頓造成的﹐當時政府存款保險造成了只賺不虧的銀行業務﹐進而不可避免地產生了這樣的問題。但是眼下的房市泡沫卻是由華爾街造成的。

如 此大的泡沫還需要有野心勃勃的抵押貸款發放者、輕率的購房者和短視的投資者參與其中。不過如果不是放貸機構將個人次貸進行分拆﹐然後再打包成證券的話﹐情 況還不至如此糟糕。投資者認為這些有著五花八門簡稱的證券比其背後的貸款要更加安全。這些券商的做法看起來就像是在把一點兒毒藥放進一個大水庫里進行稀釋 ﹔而實際上﹐他們把整個水庫都污染了。

正如我們現在明白過來的一樣﹐很多風險並沒有得到分散﹐而是到了花旗集團(Citigroup)和瑞士銀行(UBS)這樣的銀行里。說到風險分散的程度﹐這又要另當別論了。

廣告
曾 任職於紐約聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)、現供職投資管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock Inc.)的彼得•費舍(Peter Fisher)說﹐理論上講﹐風險分散這個想法很好﹐不過實際上﹐這要取決於分散給了什麼人﹔現在看來﹐我們沒有把風險分散給那些能在動盪的時候仍能巋然 不動的強手﹐而是分散給了那些承受不住風險的弱者﹐最後反而使動盪加劇了。

貸款違約和拖欠以及不斷下跌的房價產生的成本常常轉嫁給了缺乏風險應對實力的金融機構﹐有些機構甚至還和著名銀行有關係。隨著這些機構無法繼續承擔負擔﹐它們不得不把抵押貸款相關證券在一個流動性不佳的市場上賣掉﹐進而使本已經低迷的價格進一步下跌。

在一個現代的資本主義體系中﹐監管機構會提供防護使市場不至把經濟推向懸崖。但美國監管機構沒有做到這一點。它們是否應該或是可以控制華爾街上的創新、或是禁止符合法定要求的心智成熟的成年人之間進行商業交易﹐這是個很難回答的問題。

不過監管機構沒能保護那些缺乏經驗的消費者不去購買他們負擔不起或一無所知的抵押貸款﹔它們現在正在糾正這個錯誤。監管機構沒能很好地理解銀行承受的風險﹐沒能阻止放貸機構為吸引顧客而把標準降得太低﹔而修正這個問題難度更大。

監管機構有很多失職之處﹐其中一個就是放任放貸機構犯了一個初級錯誤:不是根據貸款人的現金流和收入情況決定可以放貸﹐而是根據看似價值在暴漲的抵押品。抵押貸款貸給了無力還款的人﹐因為放貸機構(或是投資者)以為﹐如果貸款人違約了﹐房屋將總是比貸款更值錢。

貝 萊德的費舍說﹐放貸機構以為抵押品在升值﹐所以就可以忽略貸款人的償債能力﹐這是信貸泡沫的典型特徵﹔抵押品應該只是一種防護。當放貸機構忘記這點時﹐監 管機構就必須插手進行干預了﹔放貸機構需要有人防止它們不斷惡意競爭﹐最後大家都一跌到底。讓我們把這些話記到卡片上﹐讓每個銀行業監管者人手一份。

然 後就是評級機構﹐主要是穆迪(Moody's)和標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)。有監管者和央行行長參加的金融穩定論壇(Financial Stability Forum)在4月的一份報告中指出﹐信貸評級機構根據不充分的歷史數據、有時甚至是有缺陷的模型就給了結構很複雜的次級債很高的評級﹔當投資者意識到這 一點的時候﹐他們對更多的證券化產品評級也不再有信心。

評級機構的缺陷是一系列問題綜合作用的結果﹐其中包括利益沖突、易讓人誤解的把複 雜證券視同簡單公司債進行評級的評級系統以及尤其毫無用處的追溯法。它們成了房市泡沫的推手。而現在它們正在進行彌補﹐改變方法﹐正如他們應該做的那樣。 評級機構的業務模式將發生改變﹔政府的監管將得到加強。

不過﹐依靠評級機構──尤其是那些複雜的退休基金和其他機構──的投資者也有責任。低利率促使所有的人都追求更高的回報﹐而不考慮相伴而來的高風險﹐在這種時候﹐投資者需要花時間、花金錢進行謹慎投資﹐而對於那些不想付出的投資者來說﹐評級公司就成了他們的拐杖。

回到銀行業和投資的基本問題上﹐這將能在很大程度上避免08年的房市恐慌在今後的歲月重演。

David Wessel

(編者按﹕本文作者David Wessel是《華爾街日報》專欄“Capital”的專欄作家。該專欄著重分析經濟狀況、以及影響全球生活的其他事件。)

Sunday, May 25, 2008

IT'S THE PEOPLE'S WEALTH, NOT YOUR GOLD MINE




One of the BN politician has quoted to say that BN has lost 2 'GOLD MINE' in last General Election (March'2008), ie PENANG & SELANGOR.

NOW I REALISE WHY HE TREAT IT AS 'GOLD MINE' AFTER READING THE NEWS BELOW FROM MALAYSIAKINI.

IT'S AN ASSETS, OUR WEALTH BELONG TO ALL MALAYSIAN, YOU SUPPOSE TO GROW IT, NOT TAKEN IT AWAY FOR YOUR OWN POCKET.

1)Malaysiakini.com : PGCC project: Lim wants answers
Athi Veeranggan | May 12, 08 12:38pm

Under the Town and Country Planning Act 1976, the state planning committee, in which the Chief Minister would be the chairperson by legal requirement, re-gazetted the land as for commercial use in pursuant to the Structure Plan.

Due to this use of legislation, the proposed RM25 billion PGCC project-developer, Abad Naluri Sdn Bhd need not pay the premium estimated to be worth RM200 million to the state government for land conversion.

Abad Naluri bought the turf club plot, which has been classified as grade one land, for RM488 million.

Sensing that the state government had lost millions in land premiums due to the previous state government re-zoning, Lim now wants Koh to tell all to the public the reasons behind the sudden change in land status of the turf club plot.

2)Malaysiakini.com : MB: RM27m spent by BN reps in two months
Andrew Ong | May 23, 08 2:24pm

Selangor Menteri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim today revealed that Barisan Nasional assemblypersons had spent 90.6 percent of the total state allocations within the first two months of this year.

The grand total amounts to RM26,634,844.33 and a balance of RM2,907,155.76 remains, he said in reply to a question posed by Ng Suee Lim (DAP-Sekinchan).

3) Malaysiakini.com: 94% of state gov't joint-venture projects failed: MB
Andrew Ong | May 22, 08 11:06pm

The Selangor government is at the risk of losing billions of ringgit and thousands of acres of land due to risky joint ventures undertaken during BN‘s reign of the state, Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim revealed today.

Answering his first question ever at the state assembly, Khalid revealed that 62 joint-venture projects which involved a total 12,000 acres of land had failed.

Khalid said that the joint ventures were high risk and promised low returns.

He also estimated that only six percent of the total joint ventures worth RM3.5 billion were successful.

According to Khalid, out of the billions of ringgit invested into these projects, the returns had been only about RM100 million.

Friday, May 23, 2008

What Fund Sell



The Fund will sell you the most sell able one, not the most investable one.

When shares market is 'HOT', they sell equity fund, even it's at the highest level.

When commodities is 'HOT', they sell resources/commodities fund, even though it has peak.

When China Markets is 'HOT', they sell China Concept fund, even though China has bubble.

When GOLD Price surge, they sell Gold Fund, even though Gold has reach a level never seen before.

NEVER MIND ! WHAT THE FUNDS WANT IS SALES. THEY WILL GET COMMISSIONS/FEE WHETHER IT WILL BE GAIN OR LOSS ULTIMATELY.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Political Risk- CUT or HOLD




I have said in my earlier post, In KLSE, 'Cut & Buy Back' is the best strategy at the appropriate time.

I guess now is the right time to CUT due to the real risk of POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY:-

1)Sabah MP has openly voice out their disappointment over Federal Govt.
2)Actions taken against TUN Dr Mahathir.
3)The possibility of Pakatan Rakyat form new Govt.
4)Split among UMNO & BN.

I have decided to Cut 30%-50% of my holding.

As I always say :'SMALL FISH RUN FASTER THAN THE BIG SHARKS'

Ornasteel- Moola's Concern

Earnings improved marginally from 22.6 million to 24 million.

However, surely some would be disappointed. For other stock leaders like Ann Joo and Southern Steel showed darn impressive earnings recently.

Balance sheet is still as impressive as ever. Total net cash balances have increased yet again.

Understanding My Investment Risks. Every stock has it minus points or risks. So does Ornasteel.

If you refer to my earlier postings, my concerns were on the marketable securities issues with Ornasteel. Yeah, I absolutely hate it when our local corporate leaders dabbles in such investments. Why can't they return the extra cash baack to the shareholders?

And in their last reported earnings on Feb 2007, Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2006

* The status of the Group’s investment in marketable securities as at the end of the reporting quarter is as follows:-
(i) at cost: RM30.240 million;
(ii) at carrying value: RM30.388 million; and
(iii) at market value: RM30.388 million .

Now in yesterday earnings notes, Ornasteel has made much more investments!

* The status of the Group’s investment in marketable securities as at the end of the reporting quarter is as follows:-

(i) at cost: RM56.240 million;
(ii) at carrying value: RM56.956 million; and
(iii) at market value: RM56.956 million

56.2 million in marketable securites???

Seriously, that's massive yes?

This is a concern yes?

Is this getting out of hand?

Posted by Moola at 8:57 AM 1 comments


MY COMMENT
The investment in short term fund is not an issue/worry, it's a common practice for Company with excess fund to park their money in short term fund.( they operate just like a current account with an interest earning element)

Those STEEL company with excess cash (like Ornasteel)will be able to gain from this 'Price Uptrend' resulted from their capability to Build Up their holding stocks.

Friday, May 16, 2008

東亞值博 上看55元

明報專訊】東亞銀行(0023)股價昨日顯著上升3.4%,至45.7元,原因是受到券商高盛唱好,該行將其目標價由42元調升至58元,並將之列入「確信買入」名單之中。東亞的08年預測市帳率為2.1倍,股本回報率14%,估值合理,但該行在可見未來再配股引資的機會並不低,一旦有利好消息出現,股價隨時可炒至55元水平,投資者可視之為中長線目標價,若有興趣吸納該股,本欄則建議於40元至45元範圍內分段買入。另外,筆者估計,資金下一輪會轉炒估值偏低、基本因素不俗的美國相關股份,因此九興控股(1836)值得留意。

東亞07年純利升20.6%至41.44億元,其中香港業務的07年稅前盈利上升16.3%至35.68億元,增長穩定,其內地的業務,才是盈增亮點。東亞目前在內地擁有16家分行及33間支行,其內地銀行網絡為外資行中最大。東亞07年內地業務的除稅前盈利12.26億元,按年升70%,佔稅前盈利比重達到增至23.6%(見表),內地資產總額亦佔整體的28.4%。

醞釀內地發卡 添增長動力

東亞的內地業務旗艦東亞(中國)較早時宣布開始啟動私人銀行業務,另有消息指出,東亞(中國)將於短期內在內地發行首張外資行人民幣借記卡,並開始籌備人民幣信用卡業務,對東亞來說,發行人民幣借記卡及信用卡已是指日可待的事,未來可望為東亞帶來可觀的增長。

高盛預計,東亞(中國)08年及09年的稅後盈利增幅分別達到35%及39%,稅後盈利比重將達到28%,相信該分部盈利在可見未來增長絕不成疑問。

東亞在香港及內地的業務均具質素,自然能吸引持有大量港元的內地銀行,以及有意進軍神州的外資行的目光。目前兩名策略股東西班牙銀行La Caixa及中銀香港(2388)分別持有東亞8.89%及4.94%股權,持股量僅次於德銀的12.66%。

策略股東有意增持 作價料不低

東亞主席李國寶較早時曾透露La Caixa有意進一步增持股權,至於中銀香港,其水頭充足但內地業務比重低,自然亦對東亞的股權虎視眈眈。雖然李國寶曾表示東亞不擬出售控股權,但同時對其他投資者入股亦持開放態度。因此,東亞在可見將來仍很有機會引入新股東或讓現有策略股東增持股權。La Caixa及中銀香港最近入股東亞的每股作價約50元,相信之後東亞再配股作價不會低於此水平,這將對其股價有刺激作用。

不過,投資者亦要留意,次按問題仍會拖累東亞銀行的今年業績表現,為其股價增持不明朗因素。截至去年底,該行持有之債務抵押債券(CDO)及結構投資工具(SIV)所發行票據之金額分別為6億美元及2.53億港元,券商中銀國際的研究報告指出,預測東亞今年首季需再為旗下CDO及SIV作出8.19億港元及1.6億港元的減值撥備。

次按續為業績添不明朗

據彭博綜合券商預測,東亞的08年預測市帳率為2.1倍,股本回報率14%,估值屬合理水平,即使撇除引資概念,仍具持有價值。筆者預計於中短期內,東亞股價會於40元至50元之間上落為主,若有配股併購消息炒作,股價便有機會升穿50元,並進一步挑戰55元。


撰文:楊智佳、江偉明

Thursday, May 15, 2008

SAMGOSS : BEAR TRAP

How to define a bear trap ?

If public bank selling to u @ RM7.30 n she faces a very strong resistance @ RM7.95 , after 3 attemps failed to break above RM 7.95, u called that a bear trap ? OMG !!! get yr facts right b4 u give such a silly statement !

What is bear trap ? bear trap is someone trying to create a bullish scenario on a lousy counter to attract newbies 4 buying their stocks at higher price so that they can sell it with huge profit !

They know it is a shit company, therefore they push it up n sell it to those who knows nothing about FA, this is what ppl called bear trap !

A money making, debt free , cash kow company will never be classified as bear trap stock if they r selling 2 u @ PE below 10 !

Bear trap usually happen on PN4 companies or stock that running at huge loss ! if u tell ppl dont buy PBB cos she failed to breakout d resistance @7.95 !! ha ha ha... i really salute u ! this is really a "call of d century "!!

May 14, 2008 5:27 PM

Extract from 'samgang.blogspot.com'

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Mr Market for KLSE




If Equity Market is an individual, then Mr.KLSE must be a very low EQ & emotional person. You can see him depressed & down when mood is no good. But he will be very excited when his mood is good. His emotion will change very fast. Up & down! Some time it's so scary to watch when he is down.

Compare to others Mr. Market, like Mr. Dow Jone, Mr Straight time, or Mr. Hang Seng. Their EQ is certainly better than Mr. KLSE, They are more mature than us, Mr KLSE act like a kids.

There are reasons why Mr. KLSE never grow up and still behave like a kid:-

1)The retailer are more on short term and lack of investing knowledge.

2)Most of the foreign funds in Malaysia is for short term play, most of them are short term hot money.

3)Most of the local institutional fund are open ended fund, their buy or sell decision is highly affected by their moody retail investor. for eg. KLSE only has one closed ended fund ie I-Capital.

Once you have understand the behaviour or character of Mr. Market (KLSE), you should know 'buy & hold' is not the best strategy for Equity investment in Malaysia.

I believe 'Value Investing' and 'Cut & buy back' when Mr.Market is depressed.

Friday, May 09, 2008

股神談投資良機



星洲日報
2008-05-07
股神巴菲特:美國股市和債市現在已出現了投資機會

(美國)“投資者可以開始振作起來了”——被市場尊稱為“股神”的全球首富、金融投資大師巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最近表示,他認為美國股市和債市現在已出現了投資機會。與此同時,他相信信貸危機帶來的大規模金融市場動盪,已經開始遠離我們。

上週末(3日),3萬1000名巴郡公司股東湧入內布拉斯加州奧馬哈,他們急切地希望聽取“股神”對信貸緊縮對公司業務、股市和美國經濟影響的看法。

在巴郡公司(Berkshire Hathaway, 股市代號 BRKa/BRKb)股東年會,巴菲特的發言可謂受萬眾矚目,週日(4日)接受記者採訪時,77歲的巴菲特指出,銀行金融業的損失從長期來看尚未結束,但許多損失已經體現出來。

他還表示,房市危機的深度、失業率和其他經濟因素有助於決定資產沖減的時間會延續多久。

至於美國股市的買入機會,巴菲特與副總裁蒙格(Charlie Munger)三番兩次勸戒投資人千萬別好高騖遠。巴菲特說:“在巴郡新增加的股票投資組合中,若能達到稅前獲利10%,我們就會非常高興。期望我們的獲利能一如以往的投資人,應當賣出手中的股票。我們的獲利不會再如以往般豐厚。一段時間後,我們會有不錯的獲利,而非不佳的獲利。未來我們的獲利即使大幅低於以往,我們也會非常高興。希望投資人也能採取相同的態度。”

“我認為巴郡股票目前的價位值得投資,”巴菲特說:“但我並不認為這檔股票是一檔最值得投資的股票。”

巴菲特認為:做為一個投資人,並無需預測經濟週期,甚至無需太過注意。投資人的焦點應在於評估個別的企業,再進行選股。否則就應只買進代表整體市場的指數基金。

當一位投資人要求巴菲特提出一項最佳也最明確的投資建議時,巴菲特說:“我會全力投資一檔由著名公司發行的低成本基金,可能是先鋒基金(Vanguard)。除非是處於強勢多頭市場,否則我有信心這檔基金表現會優於大盤,我也才可以安心工作。”

“我們樂於投資在法國或意大利賺取歐元的企業,或在英國賺取英鎊的企業,因為預期這些貨幣對美元不致貶值。”巴菲特說。“整體而言,我認為美國的政策仍將使得美元兌其他主要貨幣呈現疲弱走勢。購買以其他貨幣獲利的企業,並無需進行避險。”

他並指出,大型美國跨國企業,如可口可樂(Coca-Cola, 股市代號 KO),本身就有對美元進行避險的功能,因為他們大多的獲利係來自海外。

週日,身為巴郡掌舵人的巴菲特透露,公司正考慮投資於英國銀行業巨頭:皇家蘇格蘭銀行(簡稱:RBS)的保險業務部門,此外公司已接近完成收購一家英國中型企業。

他還稱,巴郡還收購了一些次貸資產,同時已凍結這些貸款的利率調整,原本這些貸款的利率將上調。巴菲特此前按照慣例給股東寫了一封信,信中他評價了去年做的一次大拋售,也就是眾所周知的中石油(PetroChina, 股市代號 PTR)股票投資,顯然,其超額收益讓“股神”頗為滿意。

中石油大賺‧仍欲投資中國

2002、2003年,以4億8800美元購入中石油1.3%的股份,按當時價格,中石油的市值約為370億美元,而他認為它的價值約1000億美元。

去年下半年,中石油市值漲到2750億美元,巴菲特認為這個估值水平和其他大型石油公司相比已物有所值,便將手中的股票以40億美元全部賣出。

巴菲特此前曾認為美經濟衰退可能將嚴重高於預期。會上再次談到此話題時,他表示:“我不記得一生中曾發生過像現在的房地產市場給整個經濟帶來震盪的情形。”

巴菲特對美元貶值也發表了自己的看法,他表示,他感覺美元在未來10年將會進一步貶值。

China's Inflation Mix Grows More Complex

2008年05月09日10:07
China's inflation problem is getting more complicated. Food prices are rising more slowly, but the costs of other items are starting to climb.

The headline-inflation rate has already come down a bit from its recent peak in February of 8.7% compared to the same period a year earlier, and could decline further in coming months now that prices for key goods such as pork have stabilized. Inflation eased slightly to 8.3% in March, though economists say the reading for April, slated for release next week, likely remained above 8%. Central-bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said May 4 that he expects more 'moderate' inflation in coming months.

But China isn't out of the woods yet.

Inflation is still high by China's recent standards and, like other nations, the country faces strained global markets for food and other essential commodities. This week, the cyclone that hit Myanmar, a major rice producer, threw even more uncertainty into the outlook for rice prices, which have more than doubled this year. The risk of further food-price shocks can't be ruled out.

Within China, there are also signs that price rises, so far concentrated almost entirely in food, are now spreading to other goods and services. That could be worrisome to policy makers, who have repeatedly declared that their main goal is to prevent isolated food-price gains from turning into broader inflation. Among the risks: Inflation could weaken the consumer spending that has helped support economic growth.

'Nonfood inflation is certain to go higher, and is already creeping up,' said Sun Mingchun, an economist for Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong. 'If food-price inflation goes down, but nonfood inflation goes up, economically it's a big problem.'

The increase in China's consumer-price index excluding food accelerated to 1.8% in March, after hovering at 1% or less for almost all of 2006 and 2007, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The acceleration likely reflects how higher wages and raw-material costs are feeding into price rises for a broader range of goods, phenomena that have global implications given China's importance as a supplier of many products.

Another contributor is higher rents, thanks to continued price rises in most urban-property markets. J.P. Morgan economists expect nonfood inflation to continue to speed up to an average 2.5% for all of 2008.

Lower headline inflation could reduce pressure on the government to raise interest rates or take other tightening policies. By not sharply restraining overall demand, the government has helped keep one of the growth engines of the world economy humming along at a 10.6% pace in the first quarter.

But rising 'core' inflation could also challenge the relatively mild strategy pursued so far. The central bank hasn't raised interest rates since December, apparently judging that the food-driven increases in inflation will be temporary.

This year, officials have focused mainly on reassuring consumers, so that inflation expectations don't get out of hand, and on allowing China's currency to appreciate against the dollar, which reduces import costs.

The government's own response to slowing headline inflation could further complicate the inflation picture. To try to keep inflation down, the state has put temporary price controls on some food products. Officials have also maintained fixed retail prices for electricity and fuels such as gasoline, which have long been government-set, even as soaring prices for coal and crude oil pushed up costs. That has led to shortages and financial losses for power producers and refiners.

Most economists argue the controls can't be sustained indefinitely. Officials have indicated they do plan to raise domestic energy prices, but are reluctant to do so until inflation recedes.

The shift to lower headline inflation in China may be getting closer. A shortage of pork, the staple meat for most Chinese, has been one of the big contributors to the surge in overall inflation numbers. But domestic food prices have been stable or declining in recent weeks, easing shortage concerns.

For instance, the Ministry of Commerce's weekly surveys show the wholesale price of fresh pork rose steadily to nearly 23 yuan ($3.29) a kilogram as of February. Since then, the price has been basically stable and last week dropped to 22.21 yuan.

Even without declines in prices for goods such as pork, the rate of inflation is likely to ease. The consumer-price inflation passed 5% in July last year, so by July this year the base of comparison for prices will be much higher. If prices don't accelerate, inflation rates will mathematically decline as the year goes on.

The surge in food prices has been a real hardship for the poor, but total consumer spending seems to have weathered inflation well so far. In the first quarter, retail sales, adjusted for the increase in retail prices, were up 13.2%, a rate not much changed from that for the fourth quarter of 2007.

The sales figures are an imperfect measure of actual spending, and some surveys do hint at weakness. But given the strength in many indicators -- for instance, a pickup in imports of consumer goods and strong overall growth in the first quarter -- it does appear that annual inflation at more than 8% hasn't yet hurt spending.

'My best bet is that consumption is continuing to expand rapidly, with households dipping into savings to boost their real spending power,' said Mark Williams, an economist with Capital Economics in London. That suggests households generally believe high inflation will be temporary, he argued. But if it turns out to last longer than expected, households could be less willing or able to draw on savings, and have to cut their spending.

Andrew Batson

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

人行出招 遏「人仔」狂潮



星島日報 報道)

港人對人民幣存款的熱切需求,引起內地關注,人民銀行 終於出手壓抑,中國外匯交易中心在上周六通知本港人民幣業務的清算行中銀香港 ,由周一起提高手續費,最終令各銀行相繼擴闊人民幣買賣差價,令市民存人民幣的成本上升,銀行界預期將起心理作用,令港人人民幣的增長速度較首季放慢。

  本報財經組

  中銀香港指出,已收到外匯交易中心通知,由周一起上調向該行收取的手續費,該行作為人民幣清算行,在前日已通知各銀行,將人民幣買賣差價,由十點子擴闊至七十五點子。

  豐差價最大 達208點子

  因應成本上升,各銀行紛紛將成本轉嫁客戶,予客戶的人民幣買賣差價相應擘闊,差價普遍已超過一百點子,以昨日豐為例,人民幣買賣價為每人民幣兌一點一八九/一點一二九七港元,買賣差價達二百零八點子。目前,本港人民幣活期存款息率僅約零點四五厘,而定期存款約為零點六至零點八厘,擴闊差價會令存款息率收益減少。

  業界:顯示並非全無風險

  有銀行界人士坦言,港人的人民幣存款相較內地人民幣存款總量微不足道,不會對內地貨幣金融、以至人民幣升值壓力構成影響,但從今次內地出手所見,顯示當局甚為關注這個趨勢,若然人民幣存款增長無減慢,不排除內地會再有措施推出。今次也顯示,存人民幣並非全無風險,尤其經一條龍服務到內地開戶要留意日後提款時,會否加設限制。金管局 總裁任志剛 日前提出警告,不要以為人民幣只會一直上升全無風險。

  有替客戶申辦內地人民幣戶口「一條龍」服務的工銀亞洲,董事兼副總經理黃遠輝稱,措施明顯為增加港人買賣人民幣的成本,旨在令過去快速增長的人民幣存款,可以略為放慢。

  存款速度料較首季放慢

  黃遠輝相信措施會起一定的心理作用,但不認為內地會有其他措施,如增加兌換及匯款限制(目前,港人每人每日可兌換二萬元,及匯款八萬元),首季人民幣已升值百分之四,本港人民幣存款也增長逾七成,他相信未來人民幣存款的增速會自動減慢,毋須當局再出手降溫。

  不過,他也指出買賣差價擘闊後,兌換成本實際不算增加很多,假設預期人民幣升值百分之六至七,增六十五點子買賣差價,即相當於削減不足百分之零點一的升幅。

  人民幣買賣差價拉闊,會增加準備做人民幣存款的市民兌換人民幣的成本,而已存人民幣的市民,日後將人民幣換回港元的成本也會增加,以每十萬港元計,一買一賣,兌換成本兩者相差超過一千元。

  交通銀行 香港分行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰認為,相較人民幣升值預期,成本增幅不算大,就如股民不會因股票印花稅升而不買股票,只要人民幣繼續看升,人民幣存款仍會繼續增加,他相信人民幣升值的預期,仍是主導存款增速的因素。

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

NO TIME ? CAN U AFFORD TO IGNORE INVESTING ?




I have met a lot of people who always say no time to read, no time to learn, about Investment in equity/shares market.

OR perhaps they wanted to do it but cant find time to read/learn.

I am not asking people to play shares, but JUST DO IT, TO START READ INVESTMENT BOOKS.

Can you just ignore investment ? You better not!

The Inflation has already knocking our door, petrol cost going up non-stop, cooking oil has gone up, now rice also going up. You do not need to go to wet market, your neighbour will tell you that the $$$ for all vegetables, fish, meat, chicken etc has gone up & up.

The price for house, flat, toll, car park, all has already gone up.

Salary earner like you & me, the middle class & the poor will be hit hardest.

Investment is the answer to gain from this 'Century of Inflation'.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Posco's Enviable Position

Shares in Posco, which a year ago appeared to be as stainless as some of the steel it produces, have fallen sharply in the past seven months amid a broad selloff of South Korean stocks by foreign investors and mounting raw-materials costs.

But Posco has a huge amount of untapped earnings power, because it has kept product prices well below those of its competitors. Either the steelmaker will raise them, boosting profits, or keep them down and increase market share.

Investors are eager to see Posco raise prices. And analysts say the company's stock will get some upward momentum if Posco does.

On Tuesday, Posco shares fell 0.4% in Seoul to close at 490,000 won ($491.72) -- well below their October peak of 765,000, though still 25% higher than they were a year ago.

In 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Posco's American depositary shares were down $2.46 to $120.07.

At the current share price, Posco's historic price/earnings ratio is about 10.5, roughly in line with rival Nippon Steel of Japan. But the stock is less expensive than several other South Korean steelmakers, as well as China's Baoshan Iron & Steel at about 18 times and Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steel producer, at 12.

Like its competitors, Posco is seeing the prices it pays for raw materials rise quickly as part of the global commodity boom that is driven in large part by China and India. But Posco has more flexibility than many rivals to decide when it wants to pass on the higher costs it is facing to its customers. For the moment, Posco is trying to hold the line on prices as a way to gain customers and market share.

The company did raise prices on hot-rolled coil by about 12% in February. But at about $600 a ton, Posco is seeking far less than European steelmakers, which are charging about $1,000 a ton.

Meanwhile, the company hasn't raised prices this year on ship plate, the rough steel that is used for building ships.

One of Posco's chief rivals, Dongguk Steel, recently raised its price to $1,000 a ton for ship plate, says Brian Cho, analyst at Citigroup Global Markets in Seoul. Posco's price is about $780 a ton.

Cost-cutting and increased sales of high-value end products -- goods that Posco tailors for customers -- contributed to a 5% increase in first-quarter net income from a year earlier to 1.03 trillion won. Sales rose 6.4% to 6.1 trillion won.

During Posco's first-quarter conference call, Park Ki-hong, senior vice president for finance, said the company's first priority is to lower costs 'to absorb the shock from the high raw-material prices.' If that doesn't work, he added, 'we have some room to increase our prices again.'

'Investors have been disappointed by Posco management's unwillingness to raise prices, even though there is a lot of room to do it,' Citigroup's Mr. Cho says. 'That's the main reason the share price underperforms these days.' Still, he has a 'buy' recommendation on Posco.

In addition to pricing, some investors are closely watching Posco's stated interest in acquiring Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, a builder of ships and offshore facilities. South Korea's government, through its development bank and separate asset-management firm, has owned a majority of DSME since bailing it out in 2000, and now plans to sell that off.

Posco executives say they are interested in DSME because its business in building offshore equipment is attractive at a time when energy prices are rising. In addition, Posco could pick up a captive customer for its ship plate.

Cho In-je, an analyst at KB Investment & Securities Co., says she and other analysts forecast that supplies of ship plate will grow in 2010, likely sending prices lower. As a result, she says, 'it would be good for Posco to have a captive user.' She also has a 'buy' rating on Posco stock.

Evan Ramstad

Saturday, May 03, 2008

The Spring, Speculation or Real Demand



THE SPRING CONDOMINIUM BY IJM, SG. PINANG, PENANG.

THE SPRING SOFT LAUNCH BY IJM TODAY, IT WAS SNAP UP IN A DAY. ALMOST SOLD OUT EXCEPT BUMI UNIT. PRICE RANGE FROM 250K TO 380K ( 925 - 1281 sq. ft.)

This over whelming respond is due to penangite's strong demand or just merely speculation by Investor ?

Time will tell. Just wait and see for the occupancy rate at year end !